Picking NFL games against the spread isn’t for the faint of heart. And it most certainly isn’t for those who can’t eat more than one helping of humble pie during a season — or, in the case of the playoffs, a season within a season.
I went 6-0 in the wild-card round, 2-2 in the divisional round and then finally 0-2 in the championship round.
Yes, like most people, I was off base on the Bengals’ championship mettle. I’d still love to have the AFC championship game replayed with Andy Reid kicking that field goal before halftime. I think that might have changed the momentum that carried the Bengals to victory and the game would have remained a bit of a blowout … or the Chiefs could have won by three in regulation and still not covered the seven points they were favored by anyway.
So this leaves us now with an intriguing between the Rams and the upstart Bengals, buoyed by quarterback Joe Burrow, a stout defense and a good group of playmakers on offense (Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon). Cincinnati also has the closest kicker I have seen to Justin Tucker in Evan McPherson.
For their part, the Rams appeared in the Super Bowl just three years ago and lost, 13-3, to the Patriots with Jared Goff under center. They now return with oft-maligned former Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford, a pair of killer receivers in Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr., and a running game good enough to help get a lead and control the clock late in a game. The Rams also possess a very imposing defense.
Perhaps the biggest dropoff in the two teams is the field-goal kickers, with the Rams’ Matt Gay turning in an uneven postseason thus far. In a game that could be close, the kicking situation is a huge wild card.
I have waxed and waned on this one for the better part of the time in between the championship round and now. The oddsmakers quickly made the Rams a four-point favorite in this game, and although I have seen a few places where they are 4.5-point favorites, it’s been stuck on a four-point spread for the most part.
If you look at the Ravens as a common opponent, there is very little doubt who you’d take in the Super Bowl. In late October, with a healthy Lamar Jackson at quarterback for the Ravens, the Bengals thoroughly dominated the Blackbirds, 41-17, at M&T Bank Stadium. No two ways about it, it was a mauling.
By the time the Ravens traveled to Cincinnati in late December, they were beset by injuries and had to play the return match against the Bengals with Josh Johnson, picked up as insurance from the Jets’ practice squad. Again, it wasn’t too surprising that the Bengals beat the Ravens, 41-21.
The Rams came to M&T Bank Stadium Jan. 2. Tyler Huntley played a steady game, but the Ravens struggled to convert red-zone trips into touchdowns, which came back to bite them in a 20-19 loss to Los Angeles.
So using that measuring stick, the Bengals clearly seem like the better team … but not so fast. Since the beginning of December, the Rams have played nine football games and have lost exactly once, a 27-24 overtime loss to the 49ers back on Jan. 9.
Look, I’d take Burrow over just about any quarterback in football for the long haul. Should he stay healthy, Burrow will win a couple championships and march into Canton around 2040, but I believe this is Stafford’s time. He was brought to Los Angeles for this moment.
Other than an embarrassing stretch against the Buccaneers with three or four brain farts in a row to let the Bucs back in the game, the Rams have played the most perfect football of any team I’ve watched all postseason.
I think it’ll be close early as both teams feel each other out and get over a jittery beginning. But as the game moves along — maybe even by the middle of the second quarter — I think the Bengals will just not be able to contain Kupp and Beckham often enough to stay in this one.
I am not picking this game based on the over-under, but damn, I like the Rams to score some points in this one.
The Pick: Rams 31, Bengals 17 (over/under is pegged at 48.5)
Photo Credits: Kenya Allen/PressBox