Look, it’s not the Orioles’ fault that you thought there was going to be some sort of “liftoff” this offseason.
Wait. Actually … hmmm.
OK, so maybe it’s entirely the Orioles’ fault (or specifically Mike Elias’ fault) that a standard was expected by fans this offseason that they weren’t prepared to meet. I’ve always believed that “it’s liftoff from here” was a flippant comment made almost immediately to overcompensate for regrettable comments he made about the team’s unlikely playoff chances. That doesn’t mean he didn’t err in tossing the statement into record, it’s just that I’m capable of recognizing that it probably wasn’t a reasonable standard by which to judge the team.
Some of you would describe the Orioles’ offseason as “mid.” I think the more important term would be “mild.” It’s a subtle but meaningful distinction. I think the Orioles made moves that can benefit them in 2023. Cole Irvin, Mychal Givens, Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier and James McCann can all be viewed as reasonable upgrades over what the team presented in 2022. It’s not “liftoff,” but it isn’t nothing.
It’s also reasonable to give the Orioles a pass for the mild upgrades they made this offseason because, as unexpectedly pleasant as their 2022 season was, there’s still much that needs to be sorted out about what a World Series-contending Orioles roster might look like in the coming years. We believe Adley Rutschman will be part of it. We’re pretty sure Gunnar Henderson will be, too. Barring something extremely unfortunate, Grayson Rodriguez is near the top of the rotation.
But … who else? Austin Hays? Anthony Santander? Cedric Mullins? Kyle Stowers? Jorge Mateo? Any of the starters not named Grayson Rodriguez? I’m … not entirely sure. Some haven’t fully proven themselves yet as being certain long-term pieces. Others might be the victims of prospects behind them in the system that the Orioles will ultimately prioritize instead of them. Others still just might not work out because their age and contract status might not fully match the Orioles’ window for championship contention.
So it is defensible to assume the Orioles would like one more year of evaluation at the major league level for this group. That doesn’t mean that they couldn’t have gone “all-in” this offseason. It just means that from a baseball perspective alone, you could understand why they didn’t.
At least not yet.
And that’s where the conversation gets awkward. A defense of the Orioles’ decision-making would also require positing that the true “liftoff” portion of the process can instead occur this coming offseason or even at this year’s trade deadline. If the Orioles get off to a hot start this season and start to feel comfortable about long-term answers at even one more position, they could narrow down on appropriate acquisitions they could make and which positions of depth they could deal prospects from.
If not, such answers should definitely be clearer after the 2023 season. That presents an opportunity for the team to be bolder via free agency or trades when the hot stove fires up again in the fall. If Ryan Mountcastle posts a 40-plus home run season with an improved on-base percentage, the team probably wouldn’t be in on Josh Bell (provided he opts out of his deal in Cleveland).
So it makes sense, right? It’s not like “liftoff” won’t happen, it’s just that we have to wait an extra couple of days because it’s a bit too windy right now.
And that’s where things get awkward. There’s an uncomfortable feeling that (even the most reasonable) Orioles fans have right now about whether there ever will be a “liftoff” given the circumstances. With the Orioles’ ownership picture still a bit of a mess, it’s hard to know if the money will be there to acquire big-ticket free agents or re-sign their own in the coming years.
The Orioles don’t necessarily need to be in a rush to try to buy out arbitration years for young players like Henderson, but Rutschman in particular could get tougher to sign as his star gets brighter. Given his age and the position he plays, Rutschman might be inclined to try to get to free agency and truly cash in.
There’s no need to panic. Again, at least not yet. There’s plenty of time for these things to get sorted out and for the Orioles to prove they will make significant moves in an attempt to win. But it’s also fair for Orioles fans, who have been through quite a bit, to wonder if they will.
Photo Credits: Colin Murphy/PressBox
Issue 279: February/March 2023
Originally published Feb. 15, 2023