Grayson Rodriguez is expected to make his long-awaited debut with the Orioles in 2023.
The biggest question is how far the club is going to push him. Last year, Rodriguez threw just 75.2 innings after suffering a Grade 2 lat strain that sidelined him from June until September.
Still, the 6-foot-5 right-hander was dominant when healthy. He went 6-2 with 109 strikeouts, 28 walks, a 2.62 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP. Opponents batted just .176 against him. As such, Rodriguez was named a postseason International League All-Star.
MASN analyst Ben McDonald predicts the Orioles will be patient with their prized prospect.
“Being that he has the real potential to be a No. 1 starter one day, I think they’re going to be real careful with him,” McDonald said. “I believe he’ll make the rotation out of spring training. In my opinion, he has nothing else to prove. Before he had that lat injury, he was dominating. He was only like one or two starts away from getting called up last year.”
The Orioles placed Rodriguez, 23, on the 40-man roster in November and there is every expectation he will start the season for the big league club.
In his first rehab start at High-A Aberdeen on Sept. 1, his fastball reached 98 mph and he was able to mix in secondary pitches like his curveball and changeup. Rodriguez also threw 17 of 31 pitches for strikes. He looked like he had an opportunity to pitch in Baltimore by the end of the season, but the club opted to have him finish the season in the minor leagues.
Rodriguez is now looking forward to spring training to show what he can do.
“Obviously, it’s an honor to get put on anybody’s 40-man, especially ours,” Rodriguez said this offseason. “So, pretty excited, pretty pumped up for it. Can’t wait for spring training. And really just looking forward to what this year has in store. Just getting back out there and throwing the baseball.”
The Orioles are expected to monitor Rodriguez’s innings to make sure he stays healthy for the long haul. However, the Orioles and Rodriguez could still reach unfamiliar territory. He has only thrown more than 100 innings once in four minor league seasons, amassing 103 in 2021 between Aberdeen and Bowie.
Last year, Rodriguez opened the season at Triple-A Norfolk and made 11 stellar starts, compiling a 2.09 ERA with 80 strikeouts in 56 innings before suffering the injury on his right side. While there was a chance the injury could have shut him down for the year, Rodriguez returned to minor league action exactly three months after his last start before he was shut down.
He made one rehab start with High-A Aberdeen and three with Double-A Bowie before returning to finish the season with the Tides. During his last three starts for Norfolk, Rodriguez allowed four earned runs in 13.2 innings and struck out 17 batters.
The right-hander has combined for 270 strikeouts in 178.2 innings during the past two seasons.
“If he stays healthy and does well, I think they’re looking at that 125 [innings] mark,” McDonald said. “That’s a safe bet. I don’t think they push it even if he’s throwing well and they’re in the heat of the playoffs. I don’t see them pushing him much past that. But that’s a concern about the Orioles’ entire rotation up and down.”
Right-handers Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells will also challenge for starting roles, but none of them has pitched a full year as a starter at the big league level. Newly acquired pitchers Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin could give the Orioles about 32 starts apiece. John Means could be back around the All-Star break after undergoing Tommy John surgery and could be limited to about 15 starts.
“The more depth you can have in the rotation, obviously the better,” Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said. “We’ve got to stay fortunate with injuries, and you’re always worried about things in spring training. Right now, the core guys we have rotation-wise had a lot of success that second half, and I want to see them build on it.”
For now, Rodriguez is focused on making the team, not his pitch counts or innings limits during the course of the season.
“That’s up to them,” Rodriguez said. “It’s something that’s out of my control. There are a lot of important people that we have that work for the Orioles that determine that. If it was up to me, it would be as many as I could throw. I’ll figure that out when we get to spring training.”
Rodriguez plans to be at full speed for spring training. The Orioles, however, might want to rein him back a bit to ensure that he stays healthy for the entire season. General manager Mike Elias has been uber-careful with Rodriguez and he’ll continue to closely monitor his development this spring.
Rodriguez just wants to show the Orioles he can be part of the team when it breaks camp and heads north to Baltimore.
“I’m focused on the big leagues,” Rodriguez said. “The injury kind of derailed it last year, but moving forward, that’s definitely in my focus. … Obviously, not getting the call lets you know your season’s over, but, I mean, I was waiting for it.
“It didn’t come, so obviously from a player’s perspective, it’s pretty disappointing. But all you can do is look forward to the next opportunity.”
Photo Credit: Scott Sears
Issue 279: February/March 2023
Originally published Feb. 15, 2023