As we turn the page on April, it serves as our first solid moment to reflect and assess the teams that are surprisingly good and the ones that are surprisingly bad. If the season ended after the games on April 30, here are the teams that would qualify for MLB’s postseason:
AL Division Winners:
Tampa Bay Rays
Minnesota Twins
Texas Rangers
AL Wild Cards:
Baltimore Orioles
Toronto Blue Jays
Houston Astros
NL Division Winners:
Atlanta Braves
Pittsburgh Pirates
Arizona Diamondbacks or Los Angeles Dodgers
NL Wild Cards:
Milwaukee Brewers
Four teams tied for two spots: New York Mets, Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers
The Yankees, Guardians and Mariners would be out of the playoffs in the American League. The Angels, Red Sox and White Sox would also be on the outside looking in, all large-market and high bankroll teams. In the National League, the Mets, Phillies, Padres and Cardinals would all be looking in from the outside.
I tried to communicate early in the season the fact that there was a lot of parity. We were heading into a season in which the difference between winning and losing would be razor thin, and that has turned out to be the case.
The positive shockers in the AL are the Rays (23-6), Orioles (19-9) and Rangers (17-11). The AL’s most disappointing teams are the White Sox (8-21), Guardians (13-15) and Mariners (12-16).
The White Sox expected a big bump from a younger skipper in Pedro Grifol, who took over for Tony La Russa. Meanwhile, Mariners skipper Scott Servais has to be feeling the heat. If the Mariners don’t straighten things out soon — say, the next two or three weeks — GM Jerry Dipoto might be compelled to replace his friend.
In the NL, there is only one team that has been a big disappointment, and that’s the Cardinals at 10-19. The Cardinals may not be in the midst of a grand era, but they rarely have disappointed to this level. They’ve almost played themselves out of contention in one month.
Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol had an impressive debut season in 2022, going 93-69. He replaced Mike Shildt, who had a .559 winning percentage (252-199). That was better than any Cardinals manager since Eddie Dyer, who posted a .578 winning percentage (446-325) way back from 1946-1950. The list of Cardinals managers between Dyer and Shildt includes some impressive names: Whitey Herzog, Red Schoendienst, Joe Torre, Tony La Russa and Mike Matheny.
The point here is that the Cardinals don’t make knee-jerk reactions when it comes to their managers. But one wonders if Marmol decision to publicly call out Tyler O’Neill regarding what Marmol felt was a lame effort on trying to score a key run from second base on a hit early in the season may have served to undermine him in the eyes of a team that has only Adam Wainwright as a clear-cut leader in the clubhouse.
The NL is much more closely bunched than the AL and there is a lot of runway between now and the end of September for the Cardinals to get back in it. But Marmol’s seat could get a lot warmer if the Cardinals are as far back a month from now as they are today.
Without further ado, let’s shake some things up with this week’s power rankings.
1. Tampa Bay Rays (23-6, No. 1 last week): We’re still waiting for Kevin Cash’s Rays to come back down to earth. The Windy City Sox scored seven in the ninth inning on April 30, which might mark the start a trend. The Rays get the upstart Pirates and Yankees for three apiece back in St. Pete.
2. Toronto Blue Jays (18-10, No. 5): The Jays seemed to be getting lots of good starts before Chris Bassitt kind of shot this much of a move in the rankings in the foot. However, there’s lots of that going around. The Jays again significantly shake up the rankings.
3. Atlanta Braves (18-9, No. 2): The Braves are again my No. 1 team in National League. A 4-1 week and they lose a spot? Blame it on sun spots.
4. Milwaukee Brewers (18-10, No. 6): Craig Counsell must be Kevin Cash’s brother by another mother, because he’s doing a lot of the same things that get done in St. Pete. And they actually draw people.
5. Baltimore Orioles (19-9, No. 9): For the first time since the glory days of Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter, the Orioles dip a toe into the top five. If Grayson Rodriguez can continue to do what he did on April 29 against the Tigers, all bets are off on how good O’s can be.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (20-9, No. 13): Pirates GM Ben Cherington has done a pretty damn good job and hasn’t even been given some of the financial support O’s give to Mike Elias. What if the other shoe never drops?
7. Minnesota Twins (17-12, No. 10): With the White Sox taking an early powder, and with the Royals and Tigers not really ready for primetime, it looked to be a dogfight between the Guardians and Twinkies in the AL Central. With the Guardians 4-9 in their last 13, the Twins could run away and hide. Stay tuned, because the Guardians host the Twins this coming weekend for three.
8. New York Yankees (15-14, No. 4): I have to be honest — when Aaron Judge isn’t around due to an injury, this lineup isn’t that hard to navigate through. The loss of Carlos Rodón is looming larger and larger.
9. New York Mets (15-12, No. 3): Sometimes it looks like Buck Showalter has a very well-paid cloud over things that never seem to go according to Hoyle.
10. Los Angeles Dodgers (16-13, No. 12): I went out on a bit of a limb when I ranked the Dodgers in the 15-16 range ahead of the season. After the first month of the season, it has become clear that I failed to account for how good rookie outfielder James Outman was and that Max Muncy would turn back into an offensive force. I still think the Padres will beat them rather handily, but the Preller Effect seems to have legs through first month of the season in San Diego.
11. San Diego Padres (15-14, No. 8)
12. Houston Astros (15-13, No. 7)
13. Texas Rangers (17-11, No. 13)
14. Arizona Diamondbacks (16-13, No. 19)
15. Philadelphia Phillies (15-14, No. 21)
16. Miami Marlins (16-13, No. 17)
17. Chicago Cubs (14-13, No. 16)
18. Los Angeles Angels (15-14, No. 20)
19. Boston Red Sox (15-14, No. 18)
20. Seattle Mariners (12-16, No. 15)
21. Cleveland Guardians (13-15, No. 14)
22. Cincinnati Reds (12-16, No. 26)
23. San Francisco Giants (11-16, No. 24)
24. St. Louis Cardinals (10-19, No. 22)
25. Detroit Tigers (10-17, No. 28)
26. Washington Nationals (10-17, No. 25)
27. Chicago White Sox (8-21, No. 23)
28. Kansas City Royals (7-22, No. 27)
29. Colorado Rockies (9-20, No. 29)
30. Oakland Athletics (6-23, No. 30)