My final MLB power rankings already came out, but I did make a change here due to Brandon Woodruff’s shoulder injury. What I’ll do here is tell you which teams can make it to the World Series and what may trip up every playoff team.
1. Atlanta Braves (104-58): Of course the Braves can win it all. This is a true juggernaut of an offensive club that hit more than 300 home runs this year. But if they have one thing that can trip them up across a three-series gauntlet, it’s the depth and staying power of their starting rotation and whether or not they have pitchers who can bridge the gap in the middle of the game to the back end of the game.
2. Baltimore Orioles (101-61): Trying to keep it real. There’s no question the Orioles can make it to the World Series. On a pure numbers basis, it’ll be hard to pick them over the Braves or Dodgers, but what may not be quantifiable is whether the Orioles are still maturing within this season. I think they have enough pitching, but they might be done in by an offense that is still a bit young.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (100-62): If you had told me before the season that the Dodgers would get so few innings and productivity from a key quartet of starters — Dustin May, Julio Urías, Tony Gonsolin and Walker Buehler — I would have told you there was no chance for the Dodgers. Somehow manager Dave Roberts mixed and matched well enough to again win 100 games. Clayton Kershaw put up real nice numbers in his 24 starts. The acquisition of Lance Lynn was a must. Youngster Bobby Miller has the look. Still, the rotation depth and some defensive shortcomings — mostly at third base — could do them in. But the duo of Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman may be the best in baseball.
4. Houston Astros (90-72): The Astros are this high again because I honestly think the trio of these three teams — along with Philly & Milwaukee in the Nos. 5 and 6 spots — are capable of going all the way. It just seems that the Astros’ top three starters — Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier — can all be pretty darn dominant. And even though dominance from starters in the 2023 playoffs will be four or five really good innings, that bullpen manager Dusty Baker has at his disposal has tremendous length to it. They were not great with the bats this year, but with José Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Chas McCormick and the just returned Michael Brantley all in the fold, they remain very dangerous. Their Achilles heel is that they were not consistent at all (particularly at home), hence the 90-72 record.
5. Milwaukee Brewers (92-70): The Brewers suffered a major blow when it was announced they will be without Brandon Woodruff (shoulder) for the wild-card series and possibly the entire postseason. They still have a wonderful duo atop the rotation in Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta along with a very strong bullpen. While this club has a lot of fight in it, I’m just not sure they have the offensive firepower necessary to win it all. Christian Yelich at times has looked like he was the man again, but the Brewers just have to get used to the idea that he is just very solid, not spectacular. One bit of drama here is whether free-agent manager Craig Counsell already has a foot and a half out the door.
6. Philadelphia Phillies (90-72): I heard Phillies skipper Ron Thomson saying he thinks this year’s team is even better than it was a year ago. Well, with Nick Castellanos having one of the best years of his career and Trea Turner bouncing back in the second half, it should be. Alec Bohm, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper and Bryson Stott all figure prominently into this offense as well. The bullpen is stronger than last year, but big-time starters Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola just haven’t been nearly as dominant as we have come to expect. If they get undone, the starting pitching will be the culprit.
7. Toronto Blue Jays (89-73): Blue Jays fans would have preferred their ballclub put together a nice run heading into the playoffs, but a 9-10 mark in their last 19 says the Jays were fortunate that Seattle didn’t stay hot. They were underachievers all year. Could they be dangerous? Aside from the fact they play the lightweight AL Central champion Twins in the wild-card round, I don’t see them as a truly dangerous team. Because I’m not around them, I can’t say for sure how culpable manager John Schneider is, but my suspicion is that he isn’t a personality fit for the Jays.
8. Minnesota Twins (87-75): The Twins won’t be in over their heads in a wild-card series. If they can get past the Jays — and they do have home-field advantage — manager Rocco Baldelli’s club could surprise. Starters Sonny Gray, Pablo López and Joe Ryan can be pretty good for four or five innings in a playoff setting. They also have two flex pieces in Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober. I also like what I have seen out of this club offensively the last six weeks. I like Baldelli, but would management make a change in his department if the Twins get knocked out at home in the wild-card round?
9. Tampa Bay Rays (99-63): The Rays showed an amazing gameness through September, as manager Kevin Cash went to the whip to keep his team’s attention. It is a great compliment to say very few teams could have withstood the losses the Rays have had. And yet, they are not only surviving but thriving. I know I am crazy, but I think the thriving stops if the Rays make it past the Rangers in the wild-card round. Their offense has lost two huge pieces in Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe, so a couple kids may be on the big stage earlier than anticipated. I don’t see how the starting pitching holds up. Still, they may have too much offense for a beleaguered Rangers staff.
10. Miami Marlins (84-77): I have to hand it to GM Kim Ng. She kept grinding at making her team a little bit stronger here and there ahead of the deadline. Contrast her effort to Reds GM Nick Krall, whose only pickup at the deadline was lefty Sam Moll. If the Marlins can steal Game 1 and play the Phillies tough, it would be a great moral victory. This is a dangerous spot for the Phillies, who may be looking ahead to the Braves. It’s hard to see the Marlins making a true run, though.
11. Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78): How do you feel if you are the D-Backs, who have scrambled and busted their butts to get into the playoffs only for their Game 1 starter against the pesky Brewers to be Brandon Pfaadt? He is 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA and 22 homers allowed in 96 innings. No chance in Game 1 and no chance in a three-game series.
12. Texas Rangers (90-72): Even with all that offensive firepower and one of the game’s best managers, I don’t see any way the Rangers’ pitching holds up. They are paying huge dollars to big-name starters Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Max Scherzer, but it’s doubtful that Eovaldi (the only one active) will win a postseason game. The bullpen is in even worse shape than the rotation. GM Chris Young made some bold moves, and the risk vs. reward adage didn’t play out too well for him in his first season. It’s unacceptable that with home-field advantage on the line the Rangers lost 1-0 in Seattle in Game 162. They were rewarded with a trip to St. Petersburg to face the Rays, who went 53-28 at Tropicana Field.
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