This piece marks the start of my 13th season of writing my weekly MLB power rankings. This figures to be a fascinating baseball season for us in 2024.
Locally, the Orioles will be in the hands of new ownership for the first time since the late Peter Angelos purchased the club out of bankruptcy for a then-record $173 million in 1993. How much will change with the new ownership group headed by David Rubenstein?
There are plenty of on-field storylines across baseball as well. There will be a very crazed three-team battle in the AL West between the World Series champion Rangers, Astros and Mariners. The Twins will most likely rule the roost in the AL Central but may be challenged by either the upstart Royals or the Tigers. Once again in the East, it could be a three-, four- or even five-team tussle — but objectively the Orioles may break away from the pack.
Over in the NL East, the Braves and Phillies may duke it out all season, but with Chris Sale looking as sharp he has been in five years, the Braves may have too much for the Phillies to handle.
The NL Central is almost a pick-the-winner-out-of-a hat division, with the Reds, Cubs and Cardinals being the cream of the crop. No knock on new Brewers skipper Pat Murphy, but the loss of longtime manager Craig Counsell to the Cubs will have a significant impact on this division in 2024.
Out in the NL West, the Dodgers look to be the best with Shohei Ohtani on board as a DH only in 2024. But, the competition for second could be tough between the D-Backs, Padres and Giants.
I’ll be delivering my opinions weekly starting the week of April 8. Hope you’ll check it out each and every week of the regular season.
Here are my preseason power rankings.
1. Atlanta Braves
2023 Record: 104-58
Manager: Brian Snitker
Of course the Braves are good. They hope that the acquisitions of lefty Chris Sale and left fielder Jarred Kelenic make them very special.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
2023 Record: 100-62
Manager: Dave Roberts
I still have the Dodgers at No. 2, but the Shohei Ohtani situation puts a cloud over all the excitement. Just how did Ohtani’s interpreter gain access to more than $4 million?
3. Houston Astros
2023 Record: 90-72
Manager: Joe Espada
Although the Astros were bested by the Rangers in ’23, the path to the World Series runs through Houston in the American League.
4. Baltimore Orioles
2023 Record: 101-61
Manager: Brandon Hyde
Despite some odd roster decisions at the end of spring training, it’s hard to find any negativity in Birdland, which finally has an ace on the mound.
5. Philadelphia Phillies
2023 Record: 90-72
Manager: Rob Thomson
Owner John Middleton and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski put a lot of money up to extend star pitchers Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler. But do they have the hammer in the late innings out of all their options?
6. Texas Rangers
2023 Record: 90-72
Manager: Bruce Bochy
Hard to criticize GM Chris Young for winning the club’s first-ever World Series, but he sure has a lot of money tied up in pitchers not pitching.
7. New York Yankees
2023 Record: 82-80
Manager: Aaron Boone
When I did my first power rankings of this season, I actually was betting on the Yankees having a healthier season. Now they are without Gerrit Cole for at least two months. They opted against spending an enormous amount of money in terms of salary and luxury tax to sign Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell.
8. Arizona Diamondbacks
2023 Record: 84-78
Manager: Torey Lovullo
GM Mike Hazen tried to put his team over the hump with a big four-year, $80 million contract to lure Eduardo Rodríguez to the desert, and on the precipice of his D-Backs debut he came down with a lat issue. Not exactly the start he or the club had in mind, but Arizona signed Jordan Montgomery to a one-year, $25 million deal to fortify the rotation.
9. Seattle Mariners
2023 Record: 88-74
Manager: Scott Servais
The Mariners play in an awfully tough neighborhood with the Astros and the World Champion Rangers in their division, but as the season starts, they have the best rotation in the AL. Now it’s the offense’s job to score more runs.
10. Cincinnati Reds
2023 Record: 82-80
Manager: David Bell
The 2023 Reds were just awful on the mound, allowing the third-most homers in the majors (222). The Reds used 40 pitchers a season ago, with only the A’s and snake-bit Rays using more at 41. They made five — count ’em, five — additions to the pitching staff with starter Frankie Montas and relievers Nick Martinez, Emilio Pagán, Brent Suter and Justin Wilson.
11. Minnesota Twins
2023 Record: 87-75
Manager: Rocco Baldelli
Winners of AL Central a year ago, the Twins still look the strongest with Pablo López, JoeRyan and Bailey Ober heading the rotation. If Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton can each give them 125 to 135 games, the Twins’ offense can do some real damage.
12. Chicago Cubs
2023 Record: 83-79
Manager: Craig Counsell
With three weeks left in 2023, Cubs had quietly moved up to No. 9 in my power rankings after being ranked as low as the mid-20s. But they sputtered down the stretch with two 1-5 weeks. They hired Craig Counsell as manager, hoping he can do more as a jockey down the stretch than David Ross. They re-signed slugger Cody Bellinger, added Hector Neris to the ‘pen and signed lefty Shota Imanaga to help the rotation.
13. Boston Red Sox
2023 Record: 78-84
Manager: Alex Cora
The Red Sox picked up second baseman Vaughn Grissom from Atlanta in exchange for Chris Sale and signed free-agent right-hander Lucas Giolito to a two-year contract in excess of $38 million. Grissom will miss three or four weeks of the regular season with a groin strain. Giolito has had elbow surgery and will miss all of 2024. But the good news is GM Craig Breslow was able to bring in Andrew Bailey to be Alex Cora’s pitching coach. This is a sneaky capable team.
14. St Louis Cardinals
2023 Record: 71-91
Manager: Oliver Marmol
President of baseball operations John Mozeliak made three bold moves to immediately improve the rotation, signing Sonny Gray (three years, $75 million), Kyle Gibson (one year, $12 million with an option for 2025) and Lance Lynn (one year, $10 million deal with an option for 2025). Gray will start the season on the injured list with a hamstring strain. Gibson (10.80 ERA) and Lynn (5.80 ERA) struggled in the spring. Let’s look back on these three in six weeks. That may tell you the tale of the 2024 Cardinals season.
15. Toronto Blue Jays
2023 Record: 89-73
Manager: John Schneider
They haven’t been good enough the past two years and it looked like they slumped their shoulders when they didn’t lure Shohei Ohtani in free agency. To go from Ohtani to re-signing Kevin Kiermaier and bringing in utility man Isiah-Kiner Falefa says it all for me. And now they start the season with bullpen arms Jordan Romano and Erik Swanson down. John Schneider may be first manager to be on a red-hot seat in mid-May.
16. Detroit Tigers
2023 Record: 78-84
Manager: A.J. Hinch
Residing in a weak division, the Tigers are not far from becoming a force, but they are not there yet. The Javier Báez contract was a huge mistake by Scott Harris’ predecessor Al Avila. If Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize get some help from Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda, the Tigers can hang with the Twins.
17. Kansas City Royals
2023 Record: 56-106
Manager: Matt Quatraro
Between the $109 million the Royals committed to free agents this offseason and the 11-year, $288.7 million guarantee for Bobby Witt Jr., the Royals are now actually trying to put their best foot forward. Hope is a beautiful thing.
18. Tampa Bay Rays
2023 Record: 99-63
Manager: Kevin Cash
If I were drawing a cartoon summing up the Rays, I’d have a Rays mascot crying uncle. Manager Kevin Cash doesn’t have much of a margin for error for more injuries, and they seem snake-bitten.
19. San Francisco Giants
2023 Record: 79-83
Manager: Bob Melvin
After years of great support, the Giants have the money to spend big and they did that this off-season in signing outfielder Jung Hoo Lee ($113 million), third baseman Matt Chapman ($54 million), lefty Blake Snell ($62 million), right-hander Jordan Hicks ($44 million) and DH Jorge Soler ($42 million). That’s whopping total of $315 million in support of new skipper Bob Melvin. It’ll be interesting to see if it translates to contender status.
20. Pittsburgh Pirates
2023 Record: 76-86
Manager: Derek Shelton
GM Ben Cherington has the Pirates on the rise. Prospects continue to fuel the engine. I’d say the Bucs are about where the Orioles were at the beginning of the ’22 season. I think the rise gets them over .500. If Paul Skenes is ready by next year, 2025 could be liftoff for the Pirates.
21. Miami Marlins
2023 Record: 84-78
Manager: Skip Schumaker
I was not a fan of the Marlins giving former GM Kim Ng no reason to stay, but certainly it’s no fault of her replacement Peter Benix that ace starter Sandy Alcantara will miss all of 2024. Now comes the news that rotation mates Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez and Edward Cabrera all face time on the injured list A backslide looks certain from the heights of their No. 13 ranking at the end of 2024.
22. San Diego Padres
2023 Record: 82-80
Manager: Mike Shildt
I know manager Mike Shildt was stunned at his firing in St. Louis and desperately wanted back in The Show. He’ll either prove he is a real difference-maker if this team contends or he’ll be rolled over by what I see as a very poorly constructed team.
23. Washington Nationals
2023 Record: 71-91
Manager: Davey Martinez
It seems like ages since this was a winning and relevant franchise, but thanks to GM Mike Rizzo, the Nationals are coming on pretty fast and could overtake a slip-sliding Marlins squad. An awful lot of that progress has come by way of the Juan Soto return.
24. New York Mets
2023 Record: 75-87
Manager: Carlos Mendoza
We are about to watch the patient Steve Cohen, the billionaire owner of the Mets. He’s got the right guy in David Stearns as new president of baseball operations, but Cohen did the smart thing in letting then-GM Billy Eppler turn Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander into some meaningful prospects who can jump-start this rebuild.
25. Los Angeles Angels
2023 Record: 73-89
Manager: Ron Washington
It would help an awful lot if both Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon can stay healthy enough to set a tone for this club. They are without a doubt one of the most poorly-run sports franchises across the board. Manager Ron Washington will set the course of a franchise that is in a very difficult division. The Angels are not currently even in the same zip code as Houston, Texas and Seattle.
26. Oakland Athletics
2023 Record: 50-112
Manager: Mark Kotsay
Amid the bigger stories of an eventual move to Las Vegas and more immediately a search for a temporary home from 2025 to 2027, GM David Forst has moved the needle of improvement slightly.
27. Chicago White Sox
2023 Record: 61-101
Manager: Pedro Grifol
With their window for contention having shut, first-time GM Chris Getz attacked this task correctly. This team will play much better fundamental baseball as it embarks on a new direction. This job is made easier by the fact they play in a weak AL Central.
28. Cleveland Guardians
2023 Record: 76-86
Manager: Stephen Vogt
Eventually, Stephen Vogt will be a very good major league manager, but he may well have to take a bullet this year. The Guardians’ starting rotation is a big plus, but there are questions with closer Emmanuel Clase, who blew 12 saves in 2023. On the offensive side of things, there is not an awful lot to like past third baseman José Ramírez, second baseman Andrés Giménez and the Naylor brothers. The outfield of Steven Kwan, Ramón Laureano, Tyler Freeman and Estevan Florial leaves a lot to be desired from a run production standpoint. The club will be paying Myles Straw $19 million the next three seasons to play in the minors.
29. Milwaukee Brewers
2023 Record: 92-70
Manager: Pat Murphy
Like with my Guardians projection, I see a significant downturn for the Brew Crew. With both Corbin Burnes (trade) and Brandon Woodruff (injury) gone from the 2024 rotation, I don’t see enough left to make run prevention anything but problematic. Closer Devin Williams is on the injured list as well. Shortstop Willy Adames shouldn’t be on the club past June.
30. Colorado Rockies
2023 Record: 59-103
Manager: Bud Black
Are they even a thing anymore?