We are roughly a quarter of the way through the long haul of 162. It feels as though we are deep enough into the season that the standings begin to be baked in more than a little bit, but there is plenty of season left to make up ground. Playoff expansion creates more opportunities for teams as well, lengthening the time it takes to write teams off.
The two teams dangerously close to having played themselves out of possible contention are the perennial American League contender Astros and one of the most respected teams in MLB for doing things the right way, the Cardinals.
The past two weeks I have tried to still believe in the Astros, but they are 15-25. Luckily for them, the Mariners and world champion Rangers have left the door open in the division. They got a huge shot in the arm from Justin Verlander, who turned back the clock with seven innings of shutout ball on May 12.
The Astros play seven games at home this week — four against the suddenly feisty Athletics and then three against the Brewers. What they have done by playing so poorly out of the gate has been to erase their margin for error. It’s go time for the Astros.
The Cardinals feel like a much more problematic situation. They’ve put a lot of ducats into two aging star players in Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt. They also lack the luster of franchise icons Yadier Molina (second season gone) and Adam Wainwright. There is no big-time leadership in the clubhouse or out on the field.
I know they extended skipper Oliver Marmol, but the Cardinals’ 16-24 start has to be taken seriously. They likely have to win the NL Central to ensure a place in the postseason, but right now they are eight games behind the Brewers and 7.5 behind the second-place Cubs. To date, they don’t look like they are built for catching up.
If we are at the point of looking at teams in trouble, we cannot let the managers on hot seats off the hook. The most obvious candidates to be let go are usually the ones with the worst records, when they might be approaching close to 20 games under .500.
That would put Skip Schumaker (Marlins) and Bud Black (Rockies) in the crosshairs, but hang on a second. Schumaker saw the dismal future in Miami before the season started, miffed that they moved on from former GM Kim Ng. The manager actually asked to have a 2025 option removed from his contract. While it’s possible the two sides stay together, don’t count on it.
Black has such a bad team and such a good reputation that it’s hard to see management out there blaming the skipper for such a dismal yearly forecast.
White Sox second-year manager Pedro Grifol is in a very tough spot. He was hired by Rick Hahn, GM Chris Getz’s predecessor. Grifol clearly isn’t in a great spot, but it’s hard to know how Getz is viewed by owner Jerry Reinsdorf. Getz may not have the juice to move on from Grifol.
To me, the hottest seat has to belong to Blue Jays skipper John Schneider. Not that bench coach Don Mattingly is considered a top-flight skipper, but club president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins must be mortified by the performance of their team. They still have the power, and let’s face it, they won’t fire each other.
The Jays are in last place and seem to have very little life. As such, this is a big week. They’re in Baltimore for three and then go back home to host the Rays. A 1-5 or 2-4 week could make this Schneider’s last week at the helm of a big league club.
Without further ado, here are my power rankings:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (27-15, No. 1 last week): This lineup is amazing. The Dodgers also got a big performance out of James Paxton against the Padres on May 11 — six innings of shutout ball. They needed someone to step into the No. 3 starter spot since Walker Buehler is going to be a work in progress.
2. Philadelphia Phillies (28-13, No. 2): Two games up on the Braves, the Phillies are continuing to play at a high level even with Trea Turner (hamstring) out for the next five weeks or so.
3. Baltimore Orioles (26-13, No. 3): The fan base is really getting an engaged new owner. David Rubenstein represents a breath of fresh air in connecting with the fans. Oh, and on the field they aren’t too bad either.
4. New York Yankees (27-15, No. 5): The Yankees continue to play at a high level. Reports are Gerrit Cole reached 89 mph in his most recent bullpen session. We could see him back by mid-to-late June.
5. Atlanta Braves (24-13, No. 4): Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo hit a walk-off two-run homer against A.J. Minter on May 12, the fifth homer the reliever has given up in 16.2 innings this season. So why wasn’t closer Raisel Iglesias in the game? Because he had been used the previous two days. The Orioles aren’t only good team with overuse issues in their ‘pen.
6. Kansas City Royals (25-17, No. 7): Seth Lugo for Cy Young? Don’t laugh.
7. Texas Rangers (22-20, No. 6): Being swept by Rockies in Denver has to be the basement. The temperature will be hot in Dallas-Fort Worth, and the team needs to match that in these next six games against the Guardians and Angels.
8. Minnesota Twins (24-16, No. 8): The offense seems to be rounding into form. We know that Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober are quite a top three in the rotation, but did you know Chris Paddack has thrown 23.1 innings in his last four starts, allowing just five runs for a 1.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP? He has struck out 28 and walked three during that stretch.
9. Milwaukee Brewers (24-16, No. 10): Christian Yelich is back, and they just got a very solid major league debut by starter Robert Gasser against the Cardinals.
10. Chicago Cubs (24-17, No. 12): The Cubs did slip into the top 10 late in 2023, but prior to that, they hadn’t been into top 10 since late in the COVID season of 2020. While David Ross’ feelings may have been hurt by his quick hook, Craig Counsell is a difference-maker in the dugout.
11. Cleveland Guardians (25-16, No. 9)
12. Seattle Mariners (22-19, No. 11)
13. Boston Red Sox (21-19, No. 18)
14. Tampa Bay Rays (20-21, No. 15)
15. Detroit Tigers (20-20, No. 13)
16. San Diego Padres (22-21, No. 17)
17. Arizona Diamondbacks (19-22, No. 20)
18. Houston Astros (15-25, No. 16)
19. Cincinnati Reds (17-23, No. 14)
20. Oakland Athletics (19-23, No. 18)
21. Toronto Blue Jays (18-22, No. 23)
22. Washington Nationals (19-20, No. 21)
23. New York Mets (19-20, No. 24)
24. San Francisco Giants (19-23, No. 26)
25. St. Louis Cardinals (16-24, No. 22)
26. Pittsburgh Pirates (18-23, No. 25)
27. Los Angeles Angels (15-26, No. 27)
28. Chicago White Sox (12-29, No. 28)
29. Colorado Rockies (12-28, No. 30)
30. Miami Marlins (11-31, No. 29)