Spencer Schultz (@ravens4dummies on Twitter/X) has joined PressBox to share his favorite plays each day.
With Pinehurst No. 2’s unforgiving, sandy, bushy, awkward rough, players who miss the fairway will feel the pain. If that isn’t enough to push scores high, the 90-degree sunny weather shining onto turtleback greens will cause mental, physical and emotional exhaustion. Which leads to probably my favorite wager of the week: winning score over 274.5.
That would necessitate five-under par or above in order to hit. The last time we saw the U.S. Open provide a test like this was Shinnecock’s thick rough and similarly difficult, firm greens in 2018. That yielded Brooks Koepka as the winner with 281 strokes. This is a fun way of rooting for the course to cause mayhem, contrasting from the straight, soft pastures of Valhalla a month ago, which saw dozens reach 10-under par.
Speaking of Koepka, this should be a week where he shines. The two-time U.S. Open champion hasn’t missed a cut in the event since he joined the tour. He burst onto the scene at this very course in 2014 with an eye-opening T-4 alongside Keegan Bradley, Dustin Johnson and Jason Day. Koepka’s game revolves around being long and safe off the tee, then hitting iron shots conservatively onto the safe part of the green and putting well enough to avoid danger and bogeys. Pinehurst fits that perfectly.
Here are some values I like for Koepka this week:
Top 10 (+170)
Winner w/o Collin Morikawa, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele (+1400)
Top former U.S. Open winner (+470)
Tommy Fleetwood is another intriguing value. While Fleetwood doesn’t have a single PGA Tour win, let alone a major to his belt, he’s in solid form and has three top-5 finishes at the U.S. Open, including a runner-up to Koepka at the previously mentioned Shinnecock. He’s finished in the top-10 in five of his last nine majors. Fleetwood is known as a creative shot shaper with control and a well-rounded game. That should allow him to find the upside down cereal bowl greens with his approach and maintain a steady pace to stay in contention.
Here are some values I like for Fleetwood this week:
Top English (+240)
Top 10 (+300)
Top 20 (+130)
Winner w/o Morikawa, McIlroy, Scheffler, Schauffele (+2500)
My other tournament favorites considering their form and style:
Sahith Theegala top 10 and 20.
Collin Morikawa to win, win without Scheffler, top 5 and 10.
Russell Henley top 20.
Xander Schauffele top 5.
Jason Day top 20, top Oceana (+400).
Any 2 of Xander Schauffele, Morikawa and Bryson DeChambeau to finish in the top 10 (-105).
Morikawa and DeChambeau to both finish in the top 20 (+195).
No hole-in-one to be made (-140).
Photo by Soheb Zaidi on Unsplash.com
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