As it turns out, discussing what the Orioles did at the MLB trade deadline is as complicated as … discussing what the Orioles should do at the trade deadline was.
Every thought I have seems to devolve into two more. It’s like I can’t really say anything without adding a “but” and an “and” to the thought.
For example, I think the Orioles got better at the trade deadline. But I’m not sure how much better they got at the trade deadline. And I’m not sure I would have paid the price necessary to try to get significantly better at the trade deadline.
I can do this for every trade they made.
I think trading Austin Hays for Seranthony Domínguez and Cristian Pache was largely fine. But I don’t think that Pache has any real value on a regular-season roster. And I can’t say the trade truly made the roster on the whole that much better.
I think trading for Zach Eflin is helpful. But I can’t pretend that Eflin has been overwhelming this season. And I think the price they paid was reasonable but still real.
I think trading for Trevor Rogers provides a slight upgrade over what had existed at the back end of the rotation. But I think that was a low bar to clear. And I think that even if the cost wasn’t overwhelming, it is still fair to wonder if those assets could have been used to acquire something more significant.
I think trading for Eloy Jiménez is logical thanks in part to the minimal risk. But I can’t help but notice how happy everyone in Chicago is to be rid of him. And I don’t think he needs to worry about his options for the next two years being picked up.
I think trading for Gregory Soto was reasonable. But I think Seth Johnson was a real pitching prospect in an organization that has very few. And while Soto’s past closing experience is interesting, I can’t shake the idea that he’s really just a left-handed specialist at this point.
As you can tell, I have a lot of really strong, definitive, to-the-point opinions about the moves.
Look, I was on board with the Orioles’ acquisition of Jack Flaherty last year and I wasn’t the only one. It’s hard to say anything definitive about what the Orioles did and did not do until we get to the end of the year. The Flaherty trade backfired and there were better moves to be made. None of this year’s acquisitions truly shines on paper but all could prove impactful. Or none.
I’m not sure how much closer I am to believing the Orioles can win the World Series thanks to this flurry of transactions. I do think they have more legitimate options to start playoff games. Eflin’s debut wasn’t very good. (Spare me the quality start when a pitcher gives up 10 hits across six innings and it probably should have been more if not for Colton Cowser heroics in left field.) But overall, he seems trustworthy of starting the third game of a playoff series.
I couldn’t commit to Rogers as a playoff starter at the moment, but if he continues to pitch as well as he has since June 1 (3.48 ERA/1.27 WHIP in 10 starts), he could well feel trustworthy by the time we get to October.
They needed starting pitching depth. They couldn’t keep running Albert Suárez, Cade Povich and/or Chayce McDermott out there and hoping for the best. They got that.
But even if I can at least passively accept the trades made, the biggest takeaway from the deadline has to be the one flaw that went unresolved and feels potentially fatal. I acknowledge that the cost of impact leverage arms was overwhelming (see Scott, Tanner) but even if their other moves work out, I fear that the back end of the bullpen will prove to be their ultimate undoing.
At the very least, it felt like the Orioles had to find another ninth-inning option that could limit Craig Kimbrel’s usage to try to keep him rested (albeit not too rested, apparently). More realistically, it felt like they needed a more primary closing option to move Kimbrel into a part-time closing role with greater usage in other leverage spots. Soto has some closing experience in Detroit, but nothing about his numbers suggests it would be a good idea to return him to the role.
I don’t believe the Orioles are good enough to win the World Series right now, and I feel that way specifically because of this. I think the offense can continue to be more consistent, and I think the rotation could potentially be viewed as a strength again before the season is over. But I simply can’t see the back end of the bullpen being consistent enough to lock down three or four series worth of playoff wins.
The deadline was complicated, but addressing the biggest weakness on the roster might have been necessary even if expensive.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox