Is it fair to write a postmortem before the patient is dead? Maybe not, and I certainly don’t want to make it seem like the Orioles can’t put together a Rangers-like run from a year ago and end this ungodly four-decade streak of falling short of the Fall Classic.
But it is certainly fair to look at what happened to the team that put together a 210-136 stretch from June 2022 to July 2024. That’s a winning percentage of just a tick below .610. Since the Cubs marched into town just before the All-Star break this season, the Orioles are just 27-33, a .450 winning percentage.
Obviously, there’s plenty of blame to go around. There’s no crying in baseball, but there are certainly some harsh realities at play here, beginning on the mound. Starting pitchers Kyle Bradish, John Means and Tyler Wells were all done by June due to elbow surgery, while Grayson Rodriguez has been out since early August with a shoulder issue. Lefty setup man Danny Coulombe (elbow) has missed much of the season. The loss of closer Félix Bautista (elbow) has caught up with the club.
The infield has also been hit hard by injuries. Jordan Westburg, perhaps the team’s second-best regular, has missed the past six weeks with a broken right hand. Ryan Mountcastle (wrist) and Ramón Urías (ankle) recently joined him on the injured list. Jorge Mateo (elbow) is done for the year. Those injuries have left the Orioles particularly vulnerable against left-handed pitching.
It was also a very tough go early on for two rebuild survivors. Austin Hays never could get it going after an All-Star first half a year ago and was traded to the Phillies in an attempt to fortify the bullpen. Cedric Mullins was awful early but has been a lot better of late. He has moved into the top third of the batting order against right-handed starters, a move made more out of necessity than anything else.
There have been some miscalculations by the front office, most notably getting caught up in the Jackson Holliday hype. This isn’t a condemnation to say it out loud: He’s 20 years old and he’s not ready.
But even given all that, it seems certain that the team had expectations for better performances from many of the players who have remained healthy throughout the season.
Let’s start with Ryan O’Hearn, who was batting .294/.355/.485 with 11 homers and 37 RBIs and 30 runs after play on July 3. His performance since then has called into question how the team should evaluate him moving forward. Since July 4, he’s hitting .201/.292/.305 with 12 extra-base hits. That has created a huge hole in the middle of this lineup, particularly with Mountcastle out.
In a lot of ways, Anthony Santander is having his best season as a big leaguer with 41 homers and 95 RBIs. He got off to a slow start but began a major heater on Memorial Day. He hit .282/.331/.635 with 25 homers and 49 RBIs from May 31-Aug. 7. However, at this key juncture of the season, Santander has receded from greatness. Since Aug. 8, Santander has hit .217/.311/.426 with just seven homers and 17 RBIs.
Then there is former top overall pick Adley Rutschman. The catcher was hitting .306/.344/.490 with 13 homers and 49 RBIs entering play on June 11. But since then, he’s hitting .206/.307/.316 with six homers and 27 RBIs. Rutschman is too solid a contributor to not think something out of his control is at play, even if we haven’t heard about an injury.
Colton Cowser still has a decent enough chance to be the American League Rookie of the Year, but his season has been more than a bit spotty. His season-long production — 45 extra-base hits, 62 RBIs and 70 runs scored — offers some hints about the promise of his bat, but he has slumped badly of late. Since Aug. 11, Cowser is hitting .207/.292/.336 with nine extra-base hits. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is an alarming 158-to-49 on the season.
I mentioned Holliday earlier, but the misjudgments of the baseball department don’t absolve the youngster from some of the blame. His 10-game big league debut was awful (2-for-34 with 18 strikeouts), leading to his demotion to Norfolk.
Holliday stayed there until he made his big splash, a grand slam at Camden Yards on July 31. But overall, his second stint hasn’t gone particularly well. Holliday is hitting .197/.250/.358 with five home runs and 20 RBIs since his recall. His 46-to-8 strikeout-to-walk ratio doesn’t suggest he’s on the verge of breaking out, either.
I mentioned the losses on the pitching staff at the outset. Sure, they have hurt … a lot. Those injuries kept the O’s from running away with the division as the Yankees stumbled badly, but we can’t forget the empty at-bats from struggling hitters and the runners-in-scoring-position woes.
It’s all put the Orioles in a bad spot as they enter the final two weeks of the regular season.
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