Assuming Corbin Burnes does not return to Baltimore, the loss of the ace right-hander will leave a major hole in the starting rotation of an Orioles team attempting to reset itself for a more calibrated and prepared run for a championship in the next two or three seasons.
It’s not all bad news regarding the rotation. Right-handers Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin and Dean Kremer give the O’s a solid starting point. Each has established himself as a meaningful major league starting pitcher. I also think it is fair to say that each can reach a higher level.
At this point, Rodriguez is a low-end No. 2 starter, but he still has a chance to become a top-tier No. 2 or even a No. 1. However, his clock is ticking and injuries may play a part in defining his ceiling. Eflin is a very solid No. 3 starter who can look like a top-tier No. 3 and even border on a low-end No. 2. Kremer has probably outpitched what his ceiling appeared to be when he was acquired from the Dodgers in the 2018 Manny Machado trade. He seems to be stuck between being a very good No. 4 or a low-end No. 3.
But as I said before, these three are a solid starting point in building up the 2025 rotation. Kyle Bradish is not expected to have much impact before August or September. As such, the Orioles have work to do to fill out the rotation.
Cade Povich, Trevor Rogers and Albert Suárez make for some interesting depth arms. The club clearly has high hopes for Povich. Rogers was a huge disappointment after being acquired from the Marlins for Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers. Suárez was a marvel in 2024.
Povich was up and down but did look good in five September starts spanning 27.2 innings. The young lefty struck out 32, walked eight and allowed just three homers with a 2.60 ERA and 0.86 WHIP during that stretch. But remember what Buck Showalter always warned us about in judging players: Don’t make sweeping judgments in March and September.
All of this means to me that there is at least one gaping hole in the 2025 rotation, with Povich, Rogers and Suárez able to compete for the other spot. But does Elias believe he needs to make two significant additions to the rotation? Here are four possibilities on the free-agent market.
RHP Walker Buehler
Opening Day Age: 30
2024 Stats: 75.1 innings, 5.38 ERA, 64 strikeouts, 28 walks
Career Stats (2017-2024): 713.2 innings, 3.27 ERA, 754 strikeouts, 190 walks
Buehler is coming off a terrible 1-6 season, so you might ask what gives? Well, he has been battling back from a second Tommy John surgery, but he found himself in the World Series (six innings, two hits, no runs, seven strikeouts).
Let’s look beneath the surface and start with the possibility he could be had on a two-year deal, perhaps with a third-year option. Don’t forget the body work from 2018-2021, when he was 39-13, struck out 620 and allowed just 421 hits in 564 innings with a 2.82 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
I am not making light of the impact of a second Tommy John surgery, but had he not gotten hurt again, Buehler would be asking for as much or more than Corbin Burnes this offseason (if the Dodgers didn’t lock him up before that).
Buehler is coming off back-to-back seasons of earning about $8 million. So while it’s hard to swallow a 1-6 record and 5.38 ERA turning into a two-year deal worth between $35 million and $37 million, the upside is immense here. Not needing to go four or more years makes him an attractive free agent.
LHP Yusei Kikuchi
Opening Day Age: 33
2024 Stats: 175.2 innings, 4.05 ERA, 206 strikeouts, 44 walks
Career Stats (2019-2024): 809.2 innings, 4.57 ERA, 837 strikeouts, 282 walks
Kikuchi’s body of work in the majors with Seattle, Toronto and Houston is not great, but he does miss a lot of bats and the last two seasons were solid. His best work came during a 10-start run for the Astros in August and September: 60 innings, 42 hits, 76 strikeouts, 14 walks, 2.70 ERA and 0.93 WHIP.
Kikuchi signed a three-year, $36 million with the Blue Jays ahead of the 2022 season. It’s not hard to see the veteran lefty getting a two- or three-year deal worth $17 million or $18 million a year. Tacking on a third-year option with a buyout might get the job done.
Update: Kikuchi reportedly agreed to a three-year, $63 million deal with the Angels.
RHP Nick Pivetta
Opening Day Age: 32
2024 Stats: 145.2 innings, 4.14 ERA, 172 strikeouts, 36 walks
Career Stats (2017-2024): 1,029.1 innings, 4.76 ERA, 1,139 strikeouts, 377 walks
The most money Pivetta has ever made in a single season was $7.5 million in 2024, but it looks like he’s going to turn down the $21.05 million qualifying offer made by the Red Sox. I can’t imagine he’s expecting a three- or four-year deal worth about $18 million annually. I think he’ll land a two- or three-year deal worth about $12.5 million per year, perhaps with an option attached to either one.
Pivetta has tossed 623 innings in four years with the Red Sox across 129 appearances (105 starts), posting a 4.33 ERA and 1.24 WHIP and allowing 550 hits while walking 225 and striking out 705 batters. The red flag is allowing 102 homers, but Pivetta has a big arm and would certainly upgrade the Orioles’ rotation.
LHP Sean Manaea
Opening Day Age: 33
2024 Stats: 181.2 innings, 3.47 ERA, 184 strikeouts, 63 walks
Career Stats (2016-2024): 1,184.1 innings, 4.00 ERA, 1,109 strikeouts, 335 walks
Manaea was a first-round draft pick of the Royals back in 2013, then was dealt to the Athletics in 2015 for the versatile Ben Zobrist, who helped the Royals win the World Series. It’s been a mixed bag for Manaea since then, but it also feels like the final chapter hasn’t been written about the veteran lefty yet.
Manaea’s 2024 season in Queens with the surprising Mets makes me think there’s still some upside left here. He already turned down his $13.5 million player option and is expected to do the same with the $21.05 million qualifying offer. Don’t be surprised if the Mets aim higher than Manaea — think Corbin Burnes, who was drafted by former Brewers GM and current Mets president David Stearns back in 2016.
So what is Manaea looking for? Clearly a huge payday, but also some respect. He has already earned $48 million in his career to date, but the upside he flashed in 2024 seems to paint him as a solid No. 2 with the potential to become a possible low-tier No. 1.
A two-year deal worth $21.5 million annually with an option that allows him a chance to earn about $25 million at age 36 might get him.
One red flag about Manaea is his track record at Fenway Park. In four Fenway starts totaling 14.1 innings, he has posted a 15.70 ERA and 2.86 WHIP. The Sox have batted .494/.506/.823 against him at Fenway.