Hope springs eternal? Or does it?
No, the Orioles aren’t mathematically eliminated from the playoffs as things start to churn in Sarasota, Fla.
But this piece is going to be straight-shooting. It’s not intended to dismiss the work of Mike Elias and Brandon Hyde, but that old adage about real estate being all about location, location and location holds true in sports regarding the division a team resides in on a yearly basis.
The Orioles have been on a decided upswing since the second half of 2022. Winning the AL East crown in 2023 and going toe-to-toe with a vaunted Yankees squad for 80 percent of 2024 are noteworthy accomplishments.
That the Orioles reside in one of the toughest neighborhoods in baseball is not debatable. While Toronto and Tampa Bay are both very worthy adversaries, two of the biggest spenders in the history of the game are in the division as well. Boston and New York make the task of winning the division or simply getting to the World Series a very daunting task.
However, to properly discuss the outlook for 2025 and provide the proper context, we must look at the recent history of the Red Sox. When the John Henry ownership group was created by Larry Lucchino and took over the Sox in 2002, the Sox were in the throes of the Curse of the Bambino and had not won a World Series since 1918.
From 2002-2018, the Red Sox won four World Series. They won 1,541 regular-season games and lost 1,213, a winning percentage of .560. Boston averaged 91 wins per season during those 17 years.
For some inexplicable reason, Henry lost his way or his mojo after the 2018 World Series victory under former president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. And so starting in 2020, the Red Sox ceased playing hardball.
The results on the field were obviously impacted by injuries to the likes of Dustin Pedroia, Chris Sale, Trevor Story and others. But remarkably, a team with a 17-year championship pedigree traded future Hall of Famer Mookie Betts and then let Xander Bogaerts walk, though the latter decision looks like a wise one.
From 2020-2024, the Red Sox finished 353-355, a winning percentage of just .498. Leave out the pandemic-shorted season and the Sox averaged 80 wins a season.
But as the saying goes, that was then and this is now. This offseason saw Henry and GM Craig Breslow decide to be serious players again. They put together a nice package of prospects to send to the White Sox to acquire lefty Garrett Crochet to be the alpha-dog starter they have been missing since the healthy version of Sale.
Breslow also signed one-time Dodgers phenom Walker Buehler to a one-year, $21.05 million, prove-it contract. Remember, Crochet and Buehler are add-ons to a rotation featuring Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and the returning Lucas Giolito. (However, Crawford is behind schedule due to right knee soreness.) Breslow signed lefty Patrick Sandoval as a late-season depth piece after he returns from Tommy John surgery as well.
And then, like setting a bomb off in the AL East, the Sox inked Alex Bregman to a three-year, $120 million contract. At the moment, Bregman is being penciled in to play the keystone position opposite Trevor Story.
Sure, the 2025 season isn’t lost before it begins in Birdland. Elias brought in a lot of helpful pieces in Tyler O’Neill, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano and a few others. But the reality is that two hugely important players in Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander have moved on, leaving Elias with only compensatory draft picks.
I am still excited to see how it all plays out. Maybe Mike Elias will still pull off a deal to pick up one more impact starter before the games begin in earnest.
But the Red Sox are back playing hardball. The path to a World Series just got a lot more treacherous for the Orioles.
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