Last year we were able to identify Los Angeles Angels pitcher/designated hitter Shohei Ohtani as an incredible value to win the American League Most Valuable Player at +3300, and he won the award unanimously. Betting on futures keeps us engaged for the long haul, but there’s definitely a downside if a player we bet on goes down with an injury or a team struggles so badly that the bet is wasted early.
However, having something to follow throughout the season is always fun. Here are the following bets I’ll be invested in this season with the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Phillies To Make The Playoffs (-128)
Timing is everything when it comes to betting on futures. When I placed this bet, the Phillies were +100 to make the playoffs. What changed? New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom is now out for an extended period of time due to a stress reaction in his right scapula. This has changed the entire landscape of the National League East and the Phillies benefit.
There are some concerns about the Phillies. They led baseball in blown saves in the shortened season in 2020 and had a bullpen ERA of 7.06, the highest in 90 years. Philadelphia followed that up by blowing 34 saves in 2021. However, despite all the blown saves, the Phillies just missed the playoffs last season and still won 82 games. There’s no way the bullpen can be that bad again. The Phillies have an All-Star lineup that should score a ton of runs and with the expanded playoffs, there’s a strong opportunity for the Phillies to play in the postseason. There is some value in the Phillies winning the National League East at +310.
Los Angeles Angels To Make The Playoffs (+138)
Mike Trout has not played more than 140 games since 2016 and his health will once again be a deciding factor for the Angels. We’re going to sweat this one out as the American League East could get four teams in the postseason, but the expanded playoffs help create a path for the Angels to continue their season in October. At plus odds, I’ll take my chances with Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Joe Maddon.
San Diego Padres Third Baseman Manny Machado Over 28.5 Home Runs (-110)
Machado has hit this total in every full season he has played except last year, when he hit exactly 28 home runs. This number should be 30.5, as he averages 31 in a 162-game season so I think there is value here for the former first-round draft pick of the Baltimore Orioles. Most projections have him clearing the 30 home run total this year. I love this bet.
I also don’t hate the idea of Machado winning MVP at +3500. If the Padres are competitive it will largely be due to the success of Machado, with Fernando Tatis Jr. sidelined for the first couple of months.
Chicago White Sox Luis Robert to Win AL MVP (+2200)
It’s going to be really hard to overcome Shohei Ohtani and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. The hope is Mike Trout steals votes from Ohtani and a great Blue Jays lineup dings Guerrero. Unfortunately, Ohtani as a dominant two-way player will always make it difficult for anyone to say they are a more valuable player.
Robert has yet to play a full season due to the shortened schedule in 2020 and an injury in 2021. However, Robert was considered one of the top five prospects in baseball and had a minor league season in which he hit 30 home runs and stole 30 bases. The White Sox are expected to win the AL Central, so if Robert can hit close to 30 home runs, steal more than 15 bases and hit better than .300, there’s no doubt we will be watching every White Sox game in the month of September. The betting market is hopping on board as well, as Robert has moved from +2500 to +2200 in recent days.
Minnesota Twins Center Fielder Byron Buxton to Win AL MVP (+2500)
Buxton may be a top-five talent in all of baseball. I really don’t believe that is a hot take. The combination of speed and power along with his defense ability puts Buxton in a class of the elite. However, you’re never going to be considered one of the best when you can’t stay healthy. Buxton has been in the major leagues since 2015 and has played 100 games once.
The best ability is availability, and the 28-year-old has failed to do remain available. It’s disappointing because he is so good. In 61 games in 2021, Buxton hit .306 with 19 home runs and nine stolen bases. It’s not hard to envision that he would have come close to 40 home runs in a full season along with 20-plus stolen bases. If (and it’s a big if), Buxton can play near 140 games, he will be in the thick of MVP discussion.
Detroit Tigers Over 77.5 Wins (-116)
The projection models will disagree, but I really do like the Tigers taking the next step toward competitiveness in 2022. The youngsters came up last year and the team started to play better. The additions of shortstop Javier Baez and pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez should help, as should top prospect Spencer Torkelson. After the Chicago White Sox, the rest of the AL Central is up for grabs and the Tigers have a chance to battle for second place.
I just wanted to make one final note about the importance of striking early in futures betting. Like the Phillies odds changing, another bet I loved was the Oakland A’s under 69.5 wins. My reasoning was that the A’s want nothing to do with winning in 2022 after trading sluggers Matt Olson and Matt Chapman. I also knew at some point that their two best pitchers, Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea, would be traded.
Manaea is a pitcher we have mentioned liking during draft season. One of the reasons was because he would get traded to a competitive team. That’s exactly what happened, as the A’s traded Manaea to the San Diego Padres. After the trade, the A’s win total dropped from 69.5 to 67.5. I can’t confidently recommend this bet which is unfortunate as I could have a day ago. Under 69.5 wins was a strong wager.
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