I have heard the argument from a number of people this offseason.
As Maryland football looks to build off of the first winning season and bowl win of the Michael Locksley era, there is a reasonable question as to whether it can take a step forward and build off of that campaign. Not only long suffering Maryland football fans but even some unbiased analysts might suggest that there really is room for growth for a Maryland program within the landscape of the Big Ten or college football as a whole.
FanDuel, like most sportsbooks, doesn’t think it’s likely that the Terrapins will take another step as a program. It lists Maryland’s projected win total at 5.5. Despite how much experience Maryland brings back — most notably with Taulia Tagovailoa under center and a fairly remarkable group of receivers in Florida transfer Jacob Copeland, injury returnees Dontay Demus and Jeshaun Jones and budding superstar Rakim Jarrett — most neutral observers continue to view the task of finding wins in the Big Ten East to be simply too daunting for Maryland to move forward.
So what are reasonable expectations for this team this season? Is it enough to say that if Maryland simply scratches out another six-win season by beating Rutgers in the finale we should call it an accomplishment because it will eternally be too much to expect anything more?
This is where the argument comes in. The argument goes that no, wins against Buffalo, Charlotte, SMU (not a given!), Indiana, Northwestern and Rutgers would not alone qualify as progress this season. Instead, to show upward motion as a program, it’s what happens in the other games that matters. And not even necessarily that Maryland wins them.
Yes, the argument is that Maryland can show progress simply by being a little more competitive in the rest of their conference games this year.
Actually, maybe “a little more competitive” isn’t the correct way to define the request. Maryland’s six Big Ten losses last year were suffered by an average of roughly 30 points per game. By that standard, losing by four touchdowns would qualify as being “a little more competitive.” The request is that Maryland might be actually competitive in these games and that such competition would represent a level of progress.
But is that actually progress? That’s far more complicated.
For fans who are inclined to pay attention to and care about Maryland football no matter what, yes. Finding six wins and at least threatening the likes of Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin would probably be enough to maintain interest and belief in the trajectory of the program.
For the more casual fan, probably not. That group probably can’t be impressed without seeing the win total tick up, specifically via a win against a notable opponent. That group would be more likely to say something along the lines of, “If they can only win six games with the best quarterback they’ve had in 20 years, they’ll never do anything that matters.”
Internally, I can say with certainty that Maryland coaches and players have higher expectations. They’re fairly bullish about what they bring back and the opportunity they have in front of them. Even beyond the quarterback and receivers, they also have a veteran offensive line (perhaps you’ve heard, Maryland hasn’t always been in a great place to keep quarterbacks upright) and a potentially outstanding secondary led by Tarheeb Still, Deonte Banks and Jakorian Bennett. There’s a lot to like about the roster.
That doesn’t make their task any easier. Even if the Terrapins believe they are capable of accomplishing more this season, it wouldn’t necessarily be fair for outside observers to place that as an expectation. While it would not be worth throwing a parade, should the “six wins and competitive in the other games” scenario play out, I’d acknowledge it as another step forward (while similarly acknowledging there would be more work to do).
Are we grading on a curve? Perhaps. But this is Maryland football we’re talking about. And Maryland football playing in perhaps the toughest division in all of college football. We knew how impossible the task was when Locksley took the job. He has unquestionably made progress to this point despite the brutal circumstances of entering in the aftermath of Jordan McNair’s death and then having to navigate the COVID-19 pandemic. We’re really grading fairly.
And I don’t rule out the possibility of that curve not being necessary. They’re still in a tough spot, but there really is a lot to like about this team.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox
Issue 276: August/September 2022
Originally published Aug. 17, 2022