You can’t define exactly why. But I can help.
It’s incorrect to suggest that the Ravens’ decision to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the Bills’ 2-yard line with 4:15 left in the fourth quarter is somehow about “analytics.” The analytics don’t really suggest that the decision was anything more than negligible. The better argument, ironically, is the one that most Ravens fans are accusing head coach John Harbaugh of ignoring in favor of analytics. The better argument is the “feel of the game” argument.
The “feel of the game” argument is essentially that it felt like the Ravens weren’t going to be capable of stopping the Bills from scoring a touchdown, so if they didn’t score a touchdown themselves, they were doomed to lose the game. It’s an understandable argument, albeit a little odd since the Ravens had just forced Buffalo to punt on its previous possession.
More esoteric opinions have been offered about the “message” that the decision sent to the players, but ultimately what made the decision “wrong” (in my humble opinion … and I promise you there is no man more humble than I) was the definition of the risk itself.
When the Ravens went for it from fourth-and-1 from their own 34 one drive earlier, they were taking a serious risk! But they had more wiggle room should the decision have backfired. There was still an entire fourth quarter to be played if they had been stopped. If the Bills scored on a short field, the Ravens would have had plenty of time to work their way back into the game. But if they failed on fourth-and-goal, they would be providing their opponent with an opportunity to … do exactly what they did. They left the door open for the Bills to simultaneously drain the clock and tally a go-ahead score.
Perhaps the Bills would have always scored a touchdown on their final possession of the fourth quarter. But unlike short field goals, no touchdown play, not even from the 1-yard line, can be assumed. The Bills might have been able to organically score a touchdown while draining the clock, but the scenario is unlikely. The most likely scenario is that even if the Bills had scored six points, they would have done so with time remaining on the clock for the Ravens to try to back down the field and win the game themselves.
It was, plain and simple, the incorrect decision. The “analytics” don’t back it up. I am concerned that this is instead another example of the frustrated decision making we’ve seen from Harbaugh and his staff throughout the years. After being stymied for most of the half, the Ravens put together what was a 13-play, 93-yard drive that had gotten them all the way down to the 1-yard line. Then they were shut down. I can’t help but wonder if that frustration played a role in the decision.
The Ravens made a similarly poor decision to challenge a spot call on their previous drive when Lamar Jackson was marked short (setting up the aforementioned fourth-and-1 scenario). It is more difficult to get a spot challenge overturned in the NFL than it is for me to pretend like I know who the “Try Guys” are. Harbaugh has to know that. And the timeout might have proved helpful at the end of the game! It came off similarly as a decision made out of frustration because of the team’s offensive struggles and the disappointment of the spot being short.
There’s also the whole “not everyone was on the same page about what the defense was supposed to do at the end of the game” thing that led to an ugly scene with Harbaugh and Marcus Peters. I’m not sure exactly whose fault it was, but it’s real.
I’m not sure exactly what we’ve learned throughout the first four weeks of the Baltimore Ravens’ season. It’s quite easy to say that good teams don’t blow two games in which they had three-possession leads at home in as many tries. But the Ravens have a brilliant quarterback, have improved in the run game and still have a number of pieces expected to return in the coming weeks that could make them a good team.
Those panicking the loudest about the loss to Buffalo are unserious and can be dismissed. Attempting to fire coaches after every loss is at best, boring. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t real issues that deserve thorough discussion. Recent early-round draft picks (Odafe Oweh, Patrick Queen among others) have been underwhelming. Even Rashod Bateman, who has shown serious signs of taking a step forward, had a critical drop against the Bills.
And this isn’t a team that’s complete enough at the moment to overcome coaching lapses. It is inexplicable that on a rainy day, the Ravens took a delay of game penalty ahead of a field-goal attempt! (Thankfully Justin Tucker is unfazed by just about anything, but still.) They have personnel problems. They still need to get healthier. Those things alone will make it difficult to beat good teams. The coaching staff can’t add to their problems.
But they’re also tied for first place in the AFC North and we’re still only four games into a 17-game season. It’s frustrating. It’s infuriating. But we still have much to learn about this team.
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