Welcome back to the seven-game series portion of MLB’s newly expanded postseason. We now have two three-game series in each league to kick things off, replacing the one-and-done wild-card round.
The winners of those series square off in five-game series against the four teams that had byes in Round 1. In the National League, Atlanta and Los Angeles seemingly had the advantage of resting while watching the other four teams in the NL (St. Louis vs. Philadelphia and San Diego vs. Atlanta). In the American League, we saw Cleveland beat Tampa Bay, while Seattle surprised Toronto.
Just in case you haven’t been paying attention, the Dodgers and Braves were resoundingly beaten by the Padres and Phillies, respectively, while the Astros swept the Mariners. We finally got a winner in the only series that went the full five-game length, with the Yankees beating the scrappy and young Guardians.
There was something about how the Yankees got taken to the mat by the Guardians in Game 3, only to bounce back to eke out a third championship fight in six years against the Astros, who have played just three games since the regular season ended on Oct. 5.
That Houston-New York series starts on Oct. 19 and will be played with just one off day (Oct. 21). The Astros will go with Justin Verlander in Game 1 and Framber Valdez in Game 2, whereas the Yankees will be stuck with Jameson Taillon and Luis Severino. That’s a big advantage on paper for the Astros.
The Yankees won’t get to ace Gerrit Cole until Game 3 on Oct. 22. In order for the Yankees to get a second start from Cole in a seven-game series, they would need to take it to a seventh game. Cole would work on three days of rest and possibly in tandem with Nestor Cortes, who might be able to chip in a couple innings on two days rest.
Without getting too deep in the weeds of matching up the teams position by position, it’s tough to imagine the Yankees coming out victorious against the deeper, better rested and better positioned pitching staff of the Astros.
Now I know I am a day late, but you have you trust that I liked the Phillies to beat the Padres. The Phillies are now 18-7 in Game 1 of a playoff series throughout their history. They have again taken the all-important series lead. The Phillies will be able to give the ball to their duo of aces — Game 1 winner Zack Wheeler and Game 2 starter Aaron Nola — two times each should this series go at least six games.
Things get much more problematic for the Phillies when their other starters — Kyle Gibson, Ranger Suarez and Noah Syndergaard — need to pitch. Suarez has a shot in any game he starts to give his team five or six competitive innings. Gibson, on the other hand, hasn’t been much more than batting practice. Syndergaard started Game 4 against the Braves and gave his team three innings.
As we saw in Game 1, the Padres need to score early and work from in front. Their back-end trio of Nick Martinez, Roberto Suarez and Josh Hader is the difference-maker for them.
So right now, I think we are looking at an Astros-Phillies World Series. That is, unless the Yankees’ long dormant offense really breaks loose.
I have to say, at first blush, the expansion to 12 playoff teams and making the first round three-game sets are real pluses. But at the end of the day, MLB has weirdly constructed its overall playoff schedule with virtually no wiggle room to readjust and reset the schedule.
For example, why were the Yankees-Guardians and Astros-Mariners series halted with off days on the second day of each series? It led to Game 2 of Yankees-Guardians being rained out. That forced everyone to wait around to desperately try to get Game 5 in before it had to be bumped for rain.
And now, because of TV schedules, the competitive balance of a series that will determine which AL team will play for a World Series has been all but taken away.
I get that if the Yankees wanted some of the same rest the Astros have gotten, they have to drop a dime on the Guardians sooner … but their chance to do that was partially taken away due to the vagaries of the weather.
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