Well, the baseball gods have delivered a World Series that is seemingly a mismatch, with the 106-win Houston Astros going up against Bryce Harper’s 87-win Philadelphia Phillies. The Astros are a -190 favorite, per FanDuel Sportsbook. If you like Houston, you’ll have to put down $190 to win that $100. The Phillies are +165, netting you $165 if you bet $100.
So, do the Phillies stand a chance against the big, bad, no-longer-trash-can-banging Astros? Well, they have at least as good a chance as the 89-win San Diego Padres had against the 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers. We know how that turned out, as the Dodgers won Game 1 and then the Padres took three straight to knock No. 1 seed Los Angeles out of the postseason.
Compare the pitching between the Astros and Phillies and you’ll think this will be a walk in the park for Houston. The Astros pitched to a 2.90 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 1,445.1 regular-season innings. They gave up 1,121 hits and 134 home runs while striking out 1,524 batters and walking 458.
Phillies pitchers posted a 3.97 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 1,428.1 innings. They allowed 1,330 hits and 150 homers while striking out 1,423 batters and walking 463.
Astros manager Dusty Baker’s pitching staff is monstrously deep in starters, with Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy. Baker’s bullpen is also devilishly deep, with Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek, sensational rookie Hunter Brown and lefty Will Smith.
To give you an idea of how dominant the Astros were against the Yankees, Baker never had to use Garcia or Urquidy in any capacity. Smith wasn’t on the Astros roster against Seattle or New York. He is the only lefty in this bullpen and, assuming he is on the World Series roster, his job will be to almost spy Harper late in games.
Phillies manager Rob Thomson’s staff is nowhere near as spectacular on paper as the Astros. But when you try to make the case of how the Phillies can get to four wins before the Astros, it would seem the path is simple — Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler winning two games apiece. Starting in the postseason has changed so much, and it’s hard to imagine No. 3 starter Ranger Suárez going very deep in any one game. Trade deadline pickup Noah Syndergaard will look to get through three or four innings before hopefully handing a lead off to the bullpen.
Back-end bullpen arms David Robertson, Seranthony Domínguez and José Alvarado aren’t on par with what Houston can deliver, but hand them late leads and they are capable of holding on. One thing to look for is Suárez matching up late in a game with Yordan Álvarez.
If you had asked me without allowing me to glance at the actual numbers, I would have probably just assumed the Astros were a much better offensive team than the Phillies … but I would have been wrong with a capital W.
Here are the stats: Houston batted .248/.319/.424 and scored 737 runs during the regular season, while Philadelphia batted .253/.317/.422 and scored 747 runs. Those numbers paint a very close matchup. But with the pitching edge so strongly in the Astros’ camp, how can Houston possibly lose? This looks like a slam dunk.
Well, allow me to take you back to the Orioles’ three-game series at Minute Maid Park in late August, when the Orioles took two of three. Kyle Bradish’s dominant performance led the way to a 2-0 win in a game saved by Dillon Tate. The next night, Dean Kremer pitched a remarkable game, leading the O’s to a 3-1 victory. The Orioles lost by that same 3-1 score the next day, though Austin Voth kept them in it.
Bradish threw eight innings, allowing two hits and striking out six. Kremer pitched 7.2 innings, allowing four hits and striking out three. Voth threw six innings of one-run ball. The keys to those three brilliant starts were command and out-thinking the Astros by not pitching according to the book. Sliders, curveballs and changeups ruled those three days.
I guarantee you that Phillies scouts have watched those three outings. There will be a special emphasis on command and unpredictability.
Those three games give the Phillies a pathway to victory. If Nola outpitches Verlander in Game 1 and the Phillies steal that contest, they may be able to sneak away with this series. Why? Wheeler is pitching his brains out right now.
I love Baker and won’t be upset if his talented Astros team wins the 2022 title. But after all the years Baker has been trying to win a World Series, wouldn’t it be ironic if Thomson, a first-time big league skipper, wins it in his first shot?
If the Phillies win, we’ll be debating Wheeler or Harper for MVP.
Photo Credits: Kenya Allen and Colin Murphy/PressBox