It’s always a fine line to write this column this early, but spring training has gotten underway and I guess I am doing it as much to shake the rust off of my Orioles thought processes. The fine line is about who I would put on the roster and in some cases where I would position their roles.
But I do want to be correct. I think some of these early injuries may play into my thinking as to how GM Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde split the bath water and maximize the Orioles’ chances to win games.
Starting Rotation (5): Kyle Gibson, Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez
Gibson and Irvin are almost locks to start the first two games of the season and they deserve to be. I think Kremer and Bradish are also locks in this rotation and deserve to be. The last spot gets a tiny bit tricky here. Rodriguez could end up making a few starts at Triple-A Norfolk just to polish up and begin the season without the added immediate pressure of pitching in big league games. But no matter how this shakes out in late March, Rodriguez will be in the rotation come late April.
If the Orioles decide that Rodriguez is going to start the season in the big league rotation, Voth would likely fill a swingman role — or even be a piggyback guy when Rodriguez starts games.
I know the team has been penciling in Tyler Wells and DL Hall as starters all offseason. Hall’s back issues at the outset of camp will give the Orioles the perfect excuse to either start him at Norfolk or insert him as the third lefty in a revamped bullpen early in the campaign.
But I am going to get on my soapbox here regarding Hall: When exactly in his career will the Orioles be able to ramp him up into a real, true starting pitcher? The combination of injuries and treating him with kid gloves early on means he has a single-season high-water mark of 94.1 innings entering his age-24 season. It’s time to stop wishing and hoping on what you want Hall to be and use him to where he has maximum value for you to win games.
Bullpen (8): Félix Bautista*, Tyler Wells, Cionel Pérez, Mychal Givens, Bryan Baker, Keegan Akin, Austin Voth, Andrew Politi
Wells is a grown-up version of Hall. He is now 28 years old, and his high-water mark is 119.1 innings from way back in 2018. Then he had Tommy John surgery, which is why the Twins exposed him to the Rule 5 Draft following the 2020 season.
Wells got experience out of the ‘pen and closing games in 2021, and Bautista is still nursing the knee and shoulder injuries that caused him to miss time late in 2022. Wells makes the most sense to close games early on and then stack up as another late-inning guy when Bautista returns.
The Orioles’ bullpen is most likely going to be without Dillon Tate for at least the first month of the season. He has a flexor strain in his right forearm. Not always, but this particular injury can be a precursor to Tommy John surgery.
Bautista is still a possibility to be ready for Opening Day, but do you really want to rush back your bear-sized closer and turn his knee issues into a season-long thing? Nick Vespi had hernia surgery in early January and is working to present himself as an option for Opening Day in Boston on March 30.
I have explained my rationale on Wells in the ‘pen. There is so much uncertainty as to who will make it to the post. If Vespi is healthy, he probably makes the club. Hall could bump up to make the club in the ‘pen if either Vespi or Bautista is not ready.
Catcher (2): Adley Rutschman, James McCann
Not much to say here. We’re all excited to see the next levels of growth in the former No. 1 pick. I’d love to see Rutschman become more of a threat from the right side of the plate. By midseason, I think we’ll see the catching in a real solid flow with McCann starting a couple of games per week and both catchers rotating in at DH.
Infield (5): Ryan Mountcastle, Adam Frazier, Jorge Mateo, Gunnar Henderson, Ramón Urías
Clearly, the only uncertainties in the infield come on March 30. How much shortstop will Mateo play? How will second base be split between Urías and Frazier? Even though Urías is a better defender than Frazier, it won’t surprise me to see Urías getting quite a few games in at DH.
Mountcastle should start between 145 and 150 games at first base. Mateo probably starts between 120 and 125 games at shortstop. Frazier starts between 85 and 95 games at second base and Urías gets 65 or so. Henderson probably starts between 125 and 130 games at third base and between 25 and 30 at shortstop. This could change if Mateo is still only getting on base at a .267 clip.
Outfield (3): Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander
These are the only three outfielders I have locked in to make the club. Frazier can play some corner outfield and get Hays and Santander off their feet. Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad aren’t ready yet, so a switch-hitting outfielder like Robbie Grossman, who just signed with the Rangers for a base of $2 million, would have given the Orioles another option.
Reserves (3): Kyle Stowers, Ryan McKenna, Terrin Vavra
Realistically, if there are to be three reserves, they’ll likely be McKenna, Stowers and Vavra. Jordan Westburg probably gets sent down. He adds to his value by going down for the first one to two months and being ready when any significant injury occurs.
It seemed as if the Orioles picked up Lewin Díaz every other week during the offseason, so clearly they see something in him above and beyond his basic stats. Franchy Cordero still has a great power and speed combination at the age of 28, but I am not sure the Orioles have a way to unlock all that ability he showed early in his minor league career.
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