Every season, a handful of players seemingly come out of nowhere to make an impact in the fantasy baseball world. While you typically can find a few of these players on the waiver wire during the first month or so of the season, the back end of your draft is all about chasing upside. Here, we will take a look at players you can get late in your draft who have the potential to become set-it-and-forget-it guys.
My criteria:
• Will finish the 2023 season no older than 27.
• Is currently being drafted outside the top 200.
• Has already made his MLB debut.
Another thing to note: I don’t like picking chalk. I never take a No. 1 seed to win my March Madness bracket (I went with Marquette this year, so maybe I should stick to baseball). It would be easy to tell you that I think Gunnar Henderson or Corbin Carroll is poised for a big year. With that in mind, you won’t see the obvious names here. Instead, I’ll dig a little deeper to find the guys you may not be considering.
Here are two hitters and two pitchers I expect to solidify themselves as worthy lineup regulars.
Texas Rangers 3B Josh Jung
Although Jung’s prospect pedigree has soured a bit, he still finds himself on every major top-100 prospect list for the fourth consecutive season. Injuries have held him back, notably a torn labrum suffered on the first day of spring workouts in 2022, which delayed his much-anticipated MLB debut until September.
That debut was disappointing, as Jung slashed .204/.235/.418 in 102 plate appearances, albeit with five home runs. His 3.9 percent walk rate and 38.2 percent strikeout rate were out of character for Jung, who walked more than he struck out at Texas Tech. While that trend has not continued into his professional career, those extreme marks in his small 2022 sample size should be an anomaly.
Maybe Jung was pressing, as many young hitters do. If he can settle in, be a bit more selective at the plate and remember why he was the No. 8 overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, he should have no problem hanging onto his role as the Rangers’ everyday third baseman. His spring performance thus far indicates that this may be the case. I expect Jung to hit close to .265-.270 with a strong on-base percentage and flirt with 25 home runs in his first full season.
Milwaukee Brewers OF Garrett Mitchell
I can’t explain why there isn’t more love for Garrett Mitchell in the fantasy baseball world. He has legitimate 80-grade speed and is a real threat to lead the league in stolen bases. He consistently hits for a solid average with a high on-base percentage. His strikeouts are a bit of a concern, but he’ll get on base more than enough to provide elite stolen base totals. The problem with Mitchell has been his ground ball rate, which has regularly sat around 60 percent.
The new shift restrictions should help a few more of those balls find the outfield, but what would really help solidify Mitchell’s place as a top fantasy outfielder would be an increase in launch angle. He’s never been much of a power guy, but he did hit a pair of home runs in his 68 big league plate appearances last season — oh, and he has three already this spring. If this is a sign of things to come for the young outfielder, watch out. Mitchell is currently being drafted in the 28th round, which I think will prove to be one of the biggest bargains in fantasy baseball this season.
Bonus Hitter: Arizona Diamondbacks C Gabriel Moreno
I was actually looking into Moreno for this article, but I decided against using him due to Carson Kelly’s likely status as Arizona’s regular catcher. Unsure about Moreno’s playing time, I wasn’t confident enough to include him as a breakout candidate. Then, while doing my write-up for Mitchell, I got a tweet notification from MLB Trade Rumors: “Carson Kelly Diagnosed With Fractured Forearm.” I guess it’s Moreno season.
Miami Marlins RHP Edward Cabrera
There’s one knock on Cabrera, and it’s his high walk rate. At some point, though, you accept a player’s flaws when the upside is so promising. This is the case with Cabrera, whose other peripheral numbers are so good that I don’t mind a few extra guys reaching base via the walk. The Marlins’ righty enjoyed a mini breakout in 2022, posting a 3.01 ERA in 71.2 innings with 75 strikeouts. Even more encouraging are his abilities to reduce hard contact and generate swings and misses both in and out of the zone.
In 2022, Cabrera relied heavily on his low-90s changeup, a pitch he threw a third of the time. It generated a .171 batting average and a .244 slugging percentage against. He mixes all of his pitches well, with a mid- to upper-90s fastball and a pair of breakers that are equally effective at keeping hitters off-balance. While we saw a glimpse of what Cabrera is capable of last season, I expect him to take another step forward in 2023, and at an ADP of 241.6, the upside is exciting.
Baltimore Orioles RHP Kyle Bradish
Homer pick alert. I had Orioles director of player development Matt Blood on my podcast before last season and we discussed which O’s prospects were not getting enough love. The two names he brought up were Bradish and shortstop Joey Ortiz. Since then, we’ve seen Ortiz fly up prospect rankings all the way into top-100 consideration and Bradish solidify his spot in the Orioles’ rotation.
While it wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows for Bradish last year, his second half was excellent, as he posted a 3.28 ERA in his final 71.1 innings, including a pair of eight-plus-inning scoreless outings against the eventual World Series champion Houston Astros. Bradish has picked up right where he left off this spring, with the exception of one terrible outing in which he was reportedly “messing with a new set position” and out of tempo.
My primary issue with Bradish is that he tends to waste a lot of pitches once he gets ahead in the count, chase-hunting with non-competitive offerings to let the opposing hitter right back into the at-bat. He has the stuff to find success by attacking hitters rather than trying too hard to put them away. If you’re looking for high upside starting pitchers late in your draft, Bradish has the potential to be a great pick.
Bonus Pitcher: Boston Red Sox RHP Brayan Bello
I wanted to include Bello, but Esteban Rivera of FanGraphs already broke his case down far better than I could, so check that out here if you’d like.