Back in the Orioles’ glory days, manager Earl Weaver would forever discuss, debate and question the beginning of the season. “What exactly is a start?” he would bellow. Is it 10 games? Is it 15 games? Is it 20 games?
Well, we don’t have to debate very long on the topic of the Orioles and their 14-7 record after their 2-1 victory against the hapless Detroit Tigers on April 23. The Orioles are off to a good start. With a suspect Red Sox club coming into town for three games and then a four-game series in Motown, the O’s could possibly tack on five or six more wins before April turns into May.
Defining the start of the 19-3 Tampa Bay Rays requires even less discussion and debate. My friends, the Rays are off to what could be mildly described as a great start.
But in listening to “The Front Office” on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM on April 23, Jim Bowden warned us all to pump our brakes a bit on the Rays. He said let’s look at where they are on May 28. Bowden pointed to the schedule as the potential equalizer for the Rays.
The Rays, as great as 19-3 looks, won the first nine games of their season against the Nationals, Tigers and Athletics, three of the worst teams in all of baseball. But, starting with a home series against the Astros tonight, the Rays’ next 33 games will be against a much higher level of competition:
3 vs. Houston Astros
4 vs. Chicago White Sox
3 vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
7 vs. New York Yankees
3 vs. Baltimore Orioles
3 vs. New York Mets
3 vs. Milwaukee Brewers
4 vs. Toronto Blue Jays
3 vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
I know that Tampa Bay’s start is conjuring up memories of that amazing 35-5 start the Tigers got off to in 1984, when they rained on any chance of an Orioles repeat championship. Still, I have a hunch that Bowden is right in his assessment. The Rays are a really good team, but they will find the going a lot tougher in May than it was in April.
Without further ado, here are my latest power rankings:
1. Tampa Bay Rays (19-3, No. 2 last week): The Rays were 25th in home runs in MLB in 2022. This season, they have more homers than any other team with 48. The Dodgers are No. 2 with 43. The Giants, at 33, are the only other team with more than 30 long balls.
2. Atlanta Braves (14-8, No. 1): We all thought that with the Mets’ heavy injury load early, the Braves would run off and hide. The Mets have more than held their own to date. Part of this looks pretty simple. When the Braves’ top three starters — Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder — take the mound, the Braves are in those games and win most of them. But Kyle Wright and the two kids Dylan Dodd and Jared Shuster have not shown up at all.
3. New York Mets (14-9, No. 7): Nobody does a seemingly critical road trip quite like manager Buck Showalter. The Mets have injuries everywhere on the pitching staff and the bullpen has been reconstituted … and they go 7-3 on a West Coast swing. They have a chance for some real momentum when they return home for a three-game series against the Nationals and a four-game set against the rival Braves.
4. New York Yankees (13-9, No. 4): If it’s a baseball season, the Yankees seem to always be the leaders of a dubious category: most players on the injured list. Big free-agent acquisition Carlos Rodón (back) hasn’t thrown a pitch for his new team yet but could be back before June 1. Luis Severino (lat strain) could be back in two to three weeks. Frankie Montas had a cleanup of his shoulder done in February and there is hope he’ll pitch again late in the season. The Yankees have done a solid job of toughing it out, but I’m not sure they can hang with the Rays, Blue Jays and even the Orioles without getting some help on the mound.
5. Toronto Blue Jays (13-9, No. 3): Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are scalding hot, but the rotation looks like it’s about to get on a run reminiscent of the old Atlanta Braves when they had Greg Maddux, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine.
6. Milwaukee Brewers (15-7, No. 11): Craig Counsell is one of a handful of managers who can be called a difference-maker. The Brewers are one of only three National League teams to have scored more than 100 runs this season. On the pitching side, their staff ERA is 3.11 and WHIP is 1.15. Both marks lead the NL.
7. Houston Astros (12-10, No. 9): Talk about a week of gaining confidence. The Astros came into last week at 7-9 … then took two of three from the Blue Jays at Minute Maid Park and then swept the Braves at Truist Park.
8. San Diego Padres (12-12, No. 5): The Padres just got Fernando Tatis Jr. and Joe Musgrove back. Juan Soto has been a total ghost since being acquired from the Nationals last July. Manny Machado is not off to a rip-roaring start, hitting in the .220s.
9. Baltimore Orioles (14-7, No. 13): You know you are getting better when each personnel move is excruciating to make. How the Orioles get Cole Irvin, Dillon Tate and Mychal Givens back on the roster is going to be discussed and debated, and then you just have to keep your fingers crossed.
10. Minnesota Twins (12-10, No. 8): The Twins only lead the Guardians by a game right now, but it feels like they have a lot of upside. They have very solid starting pitching and the bullpen steps on potential comebacks with Jhoan Duran, Jorge López and Griffin Jax.
11. Texas Rangers (14-7, No. 20)
12. Los Angeles Dodgers (12-11, No. 16)
13. Pittsburgh Pirates (16-7, No. 23)
14. Cleveland Guardians (11-11, No. 6)
15. Seattle Mariners (10-12, No. 10)
16. Chicago Cubs (12-9, No. 19)
17. Miami Marlins (12-10, No. 21)
18. Boston Red Sox (12-11, No. 14)
19. Arizona Diamondbacks (12-11, No. 18)
20. Los Angeles Angels (11-11, No. 11)
21. Philadelphia Phillies (11-12, No. 17)
22. St. Louis Cardinals (9-13, No. 12)
23. Chicago White Sox (7-15, No. 22)
24. San Francisco Giants (8-13, No. 24)
25. Washington Nationals (7-14, No. 29)
26. Cincinnati Reds (7-15, No. 25)
27. Kansas City Royals (5-17, No. 27)
28. Detroit Tigers (7-13, No. 26)
29. Colorado Rockies (6-17, No. 28)
30. Oakland Athletics (4-18, No. 30)