So much can change in a week.
For example, I feel like one week ago there were like 70 percent fewer experts on the subject of “what happens to your body when you take a punch directly to your liver?” in the world.
One week ago, I was thinking about what the perfect gift to get my wife for her upcoming birthday would be and had literally never considered “just get her a single brick, you idiot. It’s a perfect gift!” Kinda kicking myself about how much money I spent on non-brick presents.
Also one week ago, we were (more than) a little panicked about Orioles pitching. That feels quite silly now considering that the three TOTAL runs they’ve allowed in the last 54 innings. Do you have any idea how many times I triple-checked that math in my head? I have no context for this whatsoever, but I’m just going to assume it’s the greatest 54-inning stretch in pitching history and if it isn’t, it should be.
Yes, of course the Washington Nationals and Detroit Tigers have had as much to do with the Maddux/Glavine/Smoltzian efforts we’ve seen from Orioles pitchers during the last week as the Orioles themselves did. As wrong as it was to overreact negatively to the first two weeks worth of pitching performances, it would be equally foolish to assume Birds now feature the best staff in baseball.
Still, it’s fair to feel encouraged. Kyle Gibson has been even a little better than advertised. Grayson Rodriguez’s overwhelming talent has overcome the shakiness of his youth and inexperience. Félix Bautista (save for a minor blip) has been dominant. Yennier Canó has been a freaking revelation. Panic has given way to optimism for the team with the second-best record in the American League. Perhaps a visit from Boston will provide a more reasonable barometer this week, particularly for the pitching.
And this is happening even before the Orioles get back two significant bullpen pieces in Dillon Tate and Mychal Givens, both of whom are expected to begin rehab assignments this week. Which … actually brings us to a strange conundrum. It’s hard to believe that we’ve gone from “the pitching is disastrous” to “wait a second, who’s going to go for these guys?” as quickly as we have.
I know we’ve turned “liftoff” into a punch line given the Orioles’ mild offseason, but there is one particular development that I found to be noteworthy in marking a different approach for the team this season. It happened in late March, when the team returned Rule 5 pick Andrew Politi to the Boston Red Sox.
You probably didn’t think much of it at the moment. But it was a reminder to me that the team understood they had transitioned out of rebuilding and into a period of contention. While they’ve found talent like Tyler Wells in the Rule 5 Draft in recent years, the 2023 Orioles should have had no room on their roster for a player who couldn’t help them compete immediately.
When you’re a bad team, it’s actually quite smart to be willing to give away roster spots to players who might not be able to help immediately but could prove to be difference-makers in the future. I don’t know what Politi will prove to be, but I know the O’s did the right thing by not waiting to find out. They can’t try to hold steady in baseball’s most difficult division while taking on teams 26 men to 25.
It’s not liftoff, of course. But it’s a notable change in organization philosophy to prioritize “help now” over “chance to help long-term.” And the next two weeks might provide similar opportunities to prove significant change as well.
Perhaps between now and whenever Tate and Givens are ready to make their season debuts, injuries or bereavement (although in both cases I hope not) or something along those lines will take tough decisions out of the Orioles’ hands. Perhaps someone who is pitching well right now will end up struggling and making a decision far more palatable.
But if not, this could be the next moment that the club’s decision-making goes under the microscope. Keegan Akin feels like a reasonable choice to surrender a roster spot when the time comes. He has an option left and he hasn’t pitched well so far. But who would be the second? Austin Voth has been really bad this season, but he is the team’s long man/spot starter and has no options left.
Charitably, the Orioles could say that a bad month from Voth shouldn’t outweigh his solid 2022 as they measure what’s best for the team. They might be right. I can’t say definitively that Voth won’t prove to be a more significant Oriole than, say, Mike Baumann. Baumann is significant because while he’s been phenomenal this season (both a sub-1.00 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP) he does have an option remaining.
The Orioles could easily say “for now, we’re going to send Baumann down because we don’t want to give up on Voth just yet.” But is that the right thing for a contending team to do? What’s the ultimate upside on Voth, exactly? Is it possible you’ve already gotten everything you can get out of him? Is it also possible that there really isn’t much of a market for his services and you could end up bringing him back anyway?
The point of this column isn’t to say “either get rid of Voth and keep Baumann or this whole operation is a sham.” That would be particularly silly given that we don’t know exactly when the roster moves will be made and what the circumstances will be at that point. But it’s a reminder that more decisions are coming that will be a reflection of just how committed the Orioles are in the moment. If the Orioles are willing to cut bait on Voth, perhaps that would strengthen your faith in them being willing to make moves before the deadline.
Or it’s also possible that by the time we get to next week, we’ll be right back to being panicked about everyone and ready to send all of them down. Baseball is funny that way.
Photo Credits: Kenya Allen/PressBox