Just about a month into the season, lineup regulars are approaching 100 plate appearances and starting pitchers have four or five outings under their belts. While these are still relatively small sample sizes, they are beginning to paint a picture of what we might expect from players moving forward. Remember to look beyond surface stats when evaluating a player’s performance, as you may find reasons why that performance is good or bad and whether it is sustainable throughout the course of a full season.
Here are this week’s fantasy baseball risers and fallers.
Three Up:
Los Angeles Dodgers OF James Outman — The seventh-round draft pick from 2018 was never really considered an elite prospect. The only top-100 list he has appeared on is that of The Athletic’s Keith Law and he barely cracked the Dodgers’ top 10 elsewhere. Yet, Outman posted better numbers at each level of the minor leagues and that trend has continued in the major leagues. He boasts a .311/.400/.703 slash line this season and leads MLB’s rookies with seven home runs, four of which have come this past week. After homering 32 times across three levels last season, there’s little reason to believe his success is a fluke.
Tampa Bay Rays OF Randy Arozarena — With five multi-hit games in his last seven starts, Arozarena is a big reason why the Rays have continued to plow through their competition. He has both driven in and scored seven runs in that span. He also added a pair of home runs and his third stolen base of the season. His batting average for the year now sits above .350 and his OPS above 1.000. Arozarena looks well on pace to post his third consecutive 20-20 season.
New York Yankees RHP Gerrit Cole — The Yankees’ ace has not allowed a run in his last 20.2 innings pitched, dating back to the second inning of his April 11 start in Cleveland. Included in that timeframe is a complete game shutout of the Twins in which he struck out 10 and allowed just two hits. He has yet to allow more than two runs in a start this season, and his 0.79 ERA trails only Sonny Gray and Shohei Ohtani. Pair that with a 36:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio and Cole looks like his usual self.
Three Down:
New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge — Judge has not recorded a multi-hit game since the aforementioned Cole start on April 11 and is just 6-for-41 during that stretch. That’s good for a .146 batting average in his last 12 games, lowering his season number to .244. The 2022 home run champion is still hitting the ball hard and will ultimately be just fine, but he has struck out in a third of his plate appearances this season, so he’ll need to cut back on that number a bit in order to return to form.
Los Angeles Dodgers LHP Julio Urías — The 2022 National League Cy Young finalist began the 2023 campaign with a trio of quality starts, but he was battered by the Cubs in his previous two outings. He surrendered eight runs (seven earned) in nine innings pitched during that span. He also allowed four home runs, two of which were hit by former teammate Cody Bellinger. His ERA has more than doubled but still sits at a very respectable 3.33, so this is likely just a short-term struggle for Urías.
Kansas City Royals RHP Brady Singer — After posting a 3.23 ERA in 2022, the new campaign has been unkind to Singer. He has surrendered at least five earned runs in each of his last three starts, including an eight-run, four-homer barrage at the hands of the Atlanta Braves. He was due for some negative regression but maybe not to this extent, as his ERA through four games is an ugly 8.14. Singer is no stranger to a blowup outing here and there, but his batted-ball profile has me concerned long-term. However, his 19:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio is at least acceptable.