The first month of the MLB regular season is officially in the books and players are still bursting upon the scene as fantasy contributors. By now, you should have a pretty firm idea where you need to improve as a team. Remember, the season is a marathon, so be careful not to cut ties too early with players whose underlying data suggests impending positive regression.
Waiver-Wire Targets:
Oakland Athletics OF Brent Rooker — Last week, Rooker was an honorable mention on this list, and it turns out I wasn’t taking him seriously enough. He currently leads all of baseball (min. 90 plate appearances) in both slugging percentage and OPS by a lot. The difference between Rooker’s 1.113 OPS and that of second-place Sean Murphy (1.065) is equal to the difference between Murphy’s and that of 10th-place Luis Arraez (1.017). It’s not luck for Rooker, either — he’s absolutely mashing baseballs, as his barrel rate is in the 98th percentile. Pair that with an elite walk rate and Rooker would be a legitimate MVP candidate if the season ended today. Grab him if it’s not too late.
Cincinnati Reds 3B/OF Nick Senzel — The reigning National League Player of the Week is on one heck of a hot streak, batting .467 with three home runs and nine runs batted in during his last eight games. Perhaps more notably, he has struck out just twice in that span, so he’s clearly seeing the ball very well at the moment. If it feels like we have been waiting on Senzel’s breakout for five years, it’s because we have. The injury-plagued, toolsy utilityman was once MLB’s No. 6 overall prospect, and that long-awaited breakout might finally be upon us now that he’s healthy and seeing regular playing time. His dual eligibility is helpful for fantasy purposes as well.
Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Mitch Keller — Baseball fans have an annual tradition in which they try to convince themselves that Keller is finally going to be good. Every year, we find a reason to hype him up prior to the regular season, only to be disappointed once again. In 2022, it took a strong final month to get his ERA below 4.00 by season’s end. He has carried that momentum into 2023 with an increase in strikeouts, a decrease in walks and five quality starts in seven chances. Since his lackluster Opening Day performance, he has a 2.75 ERA in his last six starts. He’s done a much better job at limiting hard contact than in years past and his next opportunity will come at home against the Rockies, who have a team OPS of .614 away from Coors Field.
Washington Nationals RHP Josiah Gray — It turns out I’m a fan of former top prospects who appear to be blooming late. Gray is another example. Last season, opponents had a .305 average against his four-seam fastball, and the 25-year-old has responded by throwing the pitch less often this year while increasing the usage of both his slider and cutter. The slider in particular has a 37.5 percent whiff rate and is his most-thrown pitch at 32.1 percent. The results have been weak contact and a 2.67 ERA in 33.2 innings. Gray has given up two runs or fewer in each of his last five starts and one run or fewer in four of them. He led baseball with 38 home runs surrendered a season ago but has allowed just four so far this year.
Honorable Mention:
Texas Rangers INF Ezequiel Duran
San Francisco Giants 1B/OF LaMonte Wade Jr.
Chicago Cubs LHP Drew Smyly
Seattle Mariners RHP Bryce Miller