What are the best ways to bet on baseball throughout the course of the regular season? 105.7 The Fan’s Jeremy Conn recently broke it down with PressBox.
This has been edited for content and clarity.
PressBox: Do you prefer betting on run totals or winners for baseball games?
Jeremy Conn: Me personally, I’m in the minority because I’m a totals guy. I’d rather do totals. I say this all the time when it comes to baseball: There’s more variance in this sport than anything else. I use this example all the time: Mike Trout could be 10-for-10 off of a pitcher, face that same pitcher and go 0-for-5 in a game. I actually just had one of these games where the weather supported the over greatly. We had two pitchers that struggled with command. We had two good hitting lineups. Everything supported the over, and the game finished 2-0 mainly because one team couldn’t hit with runners in scoring position. They kept grounding into double plays with baserunners on. The other pitcher was just lights out and struck out nine. Sometimes guys are just on and there’s nothing you can do about it. But I do feel like you can find a better edge with totals. That’s why I like it.
PB: What are those edges you can find in betting totals?
JC: With umpire data, some umpires call a smaller strike zone and it’s going to help out the hitters. For example, Bill Miller is the best pitchers’ umpire. He’s the greatest pitchers’ umpire, and if he gets a Gerrit Cole game and he gives Cole two inches off the black, Cole is just going to destroy opponents. I do think there are advantages in that stuff as well as looking at even some of the bullpen data that is out there, when you start looking at teams that have exhausted their bullpen. I was watching a game the other day with the Mets and they were saying that Buck Showalter can’t go to certain guys because they had pitched back-to-back days. He ended up having to go to those guys, and then the game ended up going over the total because of it. There are a lot of things that go into it, but for me personally, I do prefer totals in baseball.
PB: What is your favorite thing to look at when deciding on totals?
JC: My favorite thing is weather because I don’t think enough people really check it out to see if it supports [their bet]. I subscribe to RotoGrinders.com, and they have a WeatherEdge tool that comes with baseball when you buy it. That WeatherEdge tool is so good. It’s data on stadiums that have had games with similar type of weather. I feel like this WeatherEdge tool gives you the data to look at. If I’m on a game and I notice that the weather supports that [bet], then it might be something where I double the bet or it becomes one of my favorite bets of the day. If I’m looking at games and the WeatherEdge doesn’t support it and it goes against it, it doesn’t necessarily mean I’m going to change my bet. Maybe I don’t bet the game. Maybe I bet it for less. But I do think weather greatly supports a lot of things that people fail to look at. That would be my favorite.
PB: Would you suggest bettors make first-five-innings bets to avoid having to look into bullpen availability?
JC: I’ve always been a traditionalist where I like the opportunity of the bullpen blowing it because I will look into some of those things — if they have their best arms or if they don’t. I think there is inherent value to betting sides in the first five because you’re mainly paying for the starting pitcher, but the lines can get elevated. All you need is one pitcher really to be on and shut down the opposing team to not hit your total in the first five or hit your side or whatever. It does get kind of crazy.
PB: Are there any props you suggest bettors look into for a regular-season game during the summer?
JC: I like to find games with large totals where the wind is blowing out and then pick my two favorite guys — I like doing that — or just finding guys with home run props if you find value. … I think you can use a lot of the daily fantasy stuff looking for great spots for guys to hit, whether it’s more of the weather or it’s a bad pitcher to attack. I use algorithms for stuff like that, but I do like a lot of the player props. I think they’re fun to bet. I just think people can get in the weeds if you’re not paying attention to what the price tag is. If you’re betting a guy to get a hit, it might be -230. If he goes 0-for-4 or gets walked four times, you’re going to pay a heavy price tag. You’re going to pay way more than what you should just because he didn’t get it done, just trying to win 50 bucks or 100 bucks.
PB: Does any team stand out right now as a possible division or pennant futures bet?
JC: I would look at some futures bets in the American League Central where the Twins are leading but some of these other teams I think could get hot. Seattle’s another team I expect [to get going]. Seattle has too many good pitchers and a decent-hitting lineup to be playing the way they’ve been playing. You have Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert. When you look at some of the guys they have in their rotation, it’s a good group that was supposed to compete this year and push for the playoffs and they don’t look great right now. I think those are teams I would look at — teams that started off slow — and see if I can bet on them.
PB: What should bettors know about your new website, conncretelocks.com?
JC: We’re charging $4.99 a month. You get a ton with that. In football season, you’re going to pretty much get everything from me for $4.99. We do sell packages. We will sell the Conn-Crete Locks and stuff. There’s a daily podcast on my website. You can sign up just for the website without paying the $4.99 to check it out. But ultimately, my goal is to teach people what I do, what I look for, try to find value, and create a space for people that are gamblers. Ultimately, I want to get a message board going and have people interacting. In football season, we’re going to create contests and give away prizes and things like that. I want it to be a one-stop shop for people that like to gamble and play daily fantasy and inherently find some value in it and that they’re getting something out of it. I think football season, there’s not going to be a better place to go to find picks and to find like-minded people and actually get into some contests and have a chance to win some free stuff.
PB: When can people hear your baseball picks this summer on “The Big Bad Morning Show” on 105.7 The Fan?
JC: It’s right around 9:30 a.m. It’s 9:30 almost every day unless a guest needs to go at 9:30. We try to do it later because it just gives me more time to look at spreads coming out. It just makes sense. The earlier you’re putting stuff out, the harder it is when things change throughout the day, which does happen quite a bit.
Photo Credit: Colin Murphy/PressBox
Originally published July 15, 2023
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