NFL training camps have begun, and just like the players on the field, the key to any successful season is preparation.
The same can be said for fantasy football. Whether you have the first overall pick or the last of the first round, having a sense of who will be available in each round is key.
I’ll be doing mock drafts throughout the summer, offering scenarios and feedback for each position, starting with the No. 1 pick. The point of these mocks is to prepare for the unexpected.
The mock drafts will assume that 12 teams are in the league with the following roster construction: quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, tight end, a flex (running back, wide receiver or tight end) defense, kicker and seven bench spots. It is a 16-round snake draft in a half-point-per-reception (half-PPR) league. We’ll mix in 10- and 16-team drafts at some point, as well as a Superflex and non-PPR draft.
If you read my draft guide, you know I’m not a fan of drafting kickers and defense if it’s not necessary. I’d rather add a few running backs who could end up being a starter in the event of an injury. However, for the sake of this exercise, I’ll round out each draft by doing so. Remember, do not draft either before your final two picks!
Most important of all, be creative with your mock drafts. Don’t take the same players in every mock. Your favorite sleeper is probably someone else’s too.
The draft is just the start of the season. If you’re drafting early, work the waiver wire to your advantage if any major injuries arise. If you’re a fantasy nerd like me, turn on notifications from your favorite NFL insider for breaking news around the league. But the draft is where you build the foundation of your roster, and the goal is to have as deep a roster as possible.
Let’s get started with the first mock draft of the 2023 season.
Here is my roster:
Round 1, Pick 1: Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Round 2, Pick 12: Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 3, Pick 1: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Round 4, Pick 12: Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
Round 5, Pick 1: Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Round 6, Pick 12: Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 7, Pick 1: Marquise Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Round 8, Pick 12: Rashaad Penny, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Round 9, Pick 1: Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Commanders
Round 10, Pick 12: Evan Engram, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 11, Pick 1: Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Round 12, Pick 12: Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 13, Pick 1: Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears
Round 14, Pick 12: Jonathan Mingo, WR, Carolina Panthers
Round 15, Pick 1: Denver Broncos DST
Round 16, Pick 12: Jake Elliott, K, Philadelphia Eagles
Observations:
There are three guys I feel confident about with the first overall pick, but as you can see, Christian McCaffrey is on the top of my draft board. Chargers RB Austin Ekeler and Vikings WR Justin Jefferson are also fine options with the top choice depending on how you want to build your team, but I’m anticipating a full season under 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan to equal an MVP-caliber season for McCaffrey.
The downfall to picking first is waiting 23 picks to make your next selection. In years past, I was adamant about doubling down at the running back position in the first two rounds. My philosophy has changed in recent years as there are far fewer three-down running backs as passing totals have ballooned. The beauty of picking first (or last) is the ability to go with back-to-back picks to set the foundation of your roster.
With that said, tough decisions had to be made early. Jets RB Breece Hall and Jaguars RB Travis Etienne were hard to pass up. Ultimately, I went with the duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Waddle with my second and third picks. Harris battled a foot injury for the first half of last season but was RB7 in points-per-game the final nine weeks, including five games with 20-plus carries. A healthy Harris could flirt with the top-five numbers he posted his rookie season.
Waddle enters his third season in the pros, and year three is when receivers typically see the biggest boost to their game. Even with Tyreek Hill on the roster, it was Waddle who led all receivers in yards per reception (18.1) last season despite a dip in total targets. Waddle might be the second option on his team, but if quarterback Tua Tagovailoa stays healthy, both wideouts can put up WR1 numbers.
If you read my mock drafts from last offseason, you know Terry McLaurin was one of my favorite picks in this range. Thankfully, Carson Wentz is no longer a problem as McLaurin only had a 16.3 percent target share with Wentz under center. Once the Commanders made a quarterback change, McLaurin had a 29.8 percent target share and his production blossomed. Whether it’s Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett as the signal-caller for Washington, McLaurin is the top pass catcher on the team and is a great WR2.
It’s unlikely I’ll be able to land Lamar Jackson in the fifth round in a Baltimore-based league, but he was available in this mock and I had to scoop him up. There are no more contract concerns and Jackson has talent around him to be the top QB in fantasy once again. There are no excuses for the Ravens not to succeed this year and Lamar will be one of the best players in fantasy.
I continue to stack the receiver position with Diontae Johnson and Marquise Brown with my next two choices. Both are the top pass catchers on their team and should post better numbers from a year ago. Johnson was incredibly unlucky last season, failing to find pay dirt despite finishing tied for seventh in targets (147). Brown is the No. 1 receiver in Arizona with DeAndre Hopkins’ release. The Cardinals saw how effective Brown can be without Hopkins last season, averaging 12.3 fantasy points per game (WR15) in games without the now Titans receiver.
My next two picks are running backs after the dreaded running back dead zone: Rashaad Penny and Antonio Gibson. Penny has been extremely effective when healthy, and even with D’Andre Swift also in the mix, Penny should have most of the early-down and goal-line carries. Gibson took a back seat to Brian Robinson Jr. as the lead back down the stretch, but Gibson reminds me of Jerick McKinnon, who new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy made fantasy relevant in Kansas City. J.D. McKissic isn’t around to steal any of Gibson’s targets, and Gibson is an injury away from being the top back in D.C.
I had my choice between Pat Freiermuth, Evan Engram and David Njoku as my tight end in the 10th round. I went with Engram because I trust his quarterback and coach combo more than the others. Doug Pederson has always favored his tight ends, dating back to his time in Philadelphia, and that was apparent in his first season in Jacksonville as the Giants’ former first-round pick was top five at the position in snaps, targets, receptions and receiving yards. At a position that is so volatile, I’d rather hitch my wagon to a coach who likes to get his tight end involved.
My next two choices weren’t planned. Elijah Mitchell and Jaylen Warren are two guys I’ve been focusing on throughout the offseason. It just so happened that they were on the top of my draft board at the time and are the handcuffs to my top running backs. Mitchell saw nearly as many carries as McCaffrey when both were healthy, and Warren saw his usage increase as the season progressed. Both players offer obvious upside in the event of an injury, but I also like to target “backup” running backs who are regularly involved in the game plan regardless.
My last two picks are two rookies I’m willing to take late-round dart throws at in hopes of striking gold. Roschon Johnson doesn’t have much competition ahead of him to become the Bears’ lead back. He could be this year’s Tyler Allgeier. Someone must catch passes for the Panthers, and Jonathan Mingo has an opportunity to be that guy right away. Training camp and the first couple weeks of the season will dictate their stay on the roster. Worst-case scenario, you move on after a couple weeks.
I must admit, I really like this squad. Seeing Lamar and McCaffrey at the top of my roster seems like a cheat code. I like Harris’ potential to get back to being a top-five running back, and the quartette of receivers taken in the first seven rounds all have at minimum WR2 potential. I have a healthy stable of ball carriers that avoid the running back dead zone and landed the ideal tight end in the later rounds. It’s a championship-caliber team, and FantasyPros agrees as well, ranking my squad at the top of their rankings following this mock draft.
What do you think of this roster? Let’s discuss on Twitter or Threads @JoeSerp.
You can do your own mock draft in seconds by clicking here.