I knew Tax Day wasn’t April 15 this year. I just kinda thought it would happen before Aug. 2.
I have to acknowledge that, perhaps out of selfish (lack of) interest, I hadn’t spent a ton of time doing homework on Jack Flaherty ahead of the MLB trade deadline.
ESPN MLB Insider Tim Kurkjian joined Glenn Clark Radio just hours ahead of the deadline and after we ran through Justin Verlander and Eduardo Rodríguez and Michael Lorenzen and why my Josh Hader dreams could be officially dashed, I asked him if there was anyone else that I should be thinking about.
“The Jack Flaherty situation has me completely confused,” Kurkjian responded. “Look, I know he’s a free agent after the season but I also know that three years ago, that guy was great. He wasn’t just good, he was great — for a short amount of time. And I just refuse to believe that he’s lost whatever he had and it’s not coming back.”
There’s a reason Kurkjian is one of the titans of the business.
After hearing those words, I decided it was time to dive a little deeper into Flaherty’s numbers. Eek. The first thing I said to my producer Griffin Bass was, “Don’t they already have Jack Flaherty (4.43 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 8.7 K/9) in Dean Kremer (4.66 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.3 K/9)?”
I moved on. The Baltimore Orioles did not.
Let me get the things we need to say out of the way here. The Orioles needed pitching and trading for Jack Flaherty is certainly better than nothing. They needed pitching for both practical and also esoteric reasons. Esoterically, they needed to show the fan base that there is a “next step” in this process. There still need to be contract extensions and lease signings, but this is at least a minimal next step in moving from “acquiring good players after years of bad baseball” and “competing for actual championships.”
And then practically, they need a fifth starter right now. Thankfully Flaherty hasn’t started since July 26, so he will presumably get the ball on Aug. 3. Had he not been acquired, I legitimately do not know what the other options would have been.
Beyond this week, a taxed bullpen (and limited faith in just about all non-Félix Bautista members of said bullpen) and the unknown gravity of the innings issues facing Tyler Wells and Grayson Rodriguez all conspired to make the need more significant. Flaherty has had smaller innings totals in recent seasons due to injuries and the pandemic, but given his career high of 213.1 (combined regular season and postseason) in 2019, there are no innings concerns. He should be ready to help solve that problem.
The question is what kind of innings he’ll provide. As Kurkjian pointed out, there have been times in his career (particularly 2019 and 2021) when he has been really good. That hasn’t been the case this season. Charitably, we might point out that he’s been better (3.03 ERA) since the start of July but that would require us to ignore the 1.42 WHIP he’s posted in the same timeframe.
Maybe a change of scenery, the excitement of joining the best team in the American League, his pending free agency and being a right-handed pitcher with the benefit of Camden Yards’ extended left field wall will all conspire to bring out the best of Flaherty after he arrives. It’s certainly worth pointing out that Mike Elias and company have had a pretty good feel — even if we’re not fully willing to suggest the organization has a true pitching “special sauce.”
Perhaps by October we’ll be very comfortable with the idea of Jack Flaherty starting Game 1 of a playoff series.
But today? We’re a bit underwhelmed. It was a necessary move. But we had visions of Justin Verlander or Blake Snell or Dylan Cease or anyone who wasn’t both a rental AND pitching to a 4.43 ERA this season. And it feels stranger still that the cost of such a player was somehow three viable prospects (Cesar Prieto, Drew Rom and Zack Showalter)!
Which brings me back to Tax Day.
The Orioles’ strategy since Elias’ arrival has been clear. They’ve prioritized bats early in the MLB Draft. They have much to show for that strategy! They have put together one of the most exciting young nuclei of position players in the history of the franchise. Given the success, it’s been quite hard to debate the value of the strategy. But the cost is nonetheless relevant. The cost is the very pitching predicament that led to them feeling the need to pay a legitimate price to rent a pitcher who has struggled this season.
There was no way around it. They were going to have to pay a pitching tax. Acquiring a more significant pitcher would have required an even greater tax. And if they don’t win the World Series this year, not being willing to pay that greater tax may be the reason why. Even if we can viably project a rotation headed by some combination of Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish and John Means next season, they will likely have to pay a tax to fortify the group with another “playoff ace” type of arm.
This tax was unavoidable. It’s not a criticism. It’s an honest reflection of the circumstances. They chose to build a team this way. They found success doing it. But they have to pay their taxes.
I don’t like paying taxes either. But I do enjoy driving on paved roads and knowing that hospitals and police officers exist. Hopefully this tax provides at least that level of functionality, if not much more.
Photo Credit: Billy Hurst/St. Louis Cardinals