We made it. The 2023 NFL season is here.
After a long offseason full of activity, football is back. This is the time of year the focus is on building your championship-caliber fantasy team. Fantasy football is a game where you try to minimize risk by drafting the best available players. Some are ranked too high, some too low, and others are ready to become household names in fantasy football.
I am going to dive through my favorite sleepers, busts and breakout players for the 2023 season. A sleeper is a player I believe is ranked a couple rounds too low. A bust is someone I think won’t live up to his ADP (average draft position). Breakout players are those who likely aren’t on your radar just yet, but should be — and will be once the season starts.
To be clear, a bust doesn’t mean you should not draft a particular player at all. If the value is right, go ahead and make the pick. Same goes for a sleeper. Don’t reach too high when better players are available. Breakout players are guys you can land with your last few picks.
I will compare my rankings to the half-point per reception ADP you can find at FantasyPros. Let’s go position-by-position with sleepers, busts and breakout candidates as we get closer to the Thursday, Sept. 7 opener.
Quarterback Sleeper: Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
FantasyPros ADP: 123; My Rank: 86
Is it really fair to label a four-time NFL MVP as a sleeper? Some fantasy owners are sure to steer clear of Rodgers after being burned by him last season, but Rodgers has something to prove in the Big Apple and has a bona fide star at receiver in Garrett Wilson. He’s ranked way too low by the consensus. I have Rodgers finishing as a top-10 QB once again.
Quarterback Bust: Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
FantasyPros ADP: 90; My Rank: 107
It’s not that I don’t like Watson this season. I just like the players I have ranked ahead of him more, including the aforementioned Rodgers. Watson wasn’t overly impressive in the six games he played last year, but that could be attributed to rust after missing nearly two years of action.
Quarterback Breakout: Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
FantasyPros ADP: 153; My Rank: 156
The lone quarterback selected in the first round last year was nearly perfect this preseason, leading his team to a touchdown on all five of the series he played. Pickett has playmakers around him and the Steelers made it a priority to improve their offensive line this offseason. I really like getting Pickett as my third quarterback in Superflex leagues. He’ll be a main reason why the Steelers make some noise in a talented AFC North.
Running Back Sleeper: Jamaal Williams, New Orleans Saints
FantasyPros ADP: 106; My Rank: 67
How is a player who scored 17 touchdowns a year ago a sleeper? When he’s inexcusably ranked in the triple digits. Alvin Kamara will miss three games due to a suspension, meaning Williams is the starter for, at minimum, a fifth of the fantasy regular season. Williams doesn’t offer anything as a pass catcher, having caught just four passes last season. So even when Kamara is back, Williams will still have his role as the goal-line back. Everyone would be shocked if he found the end zone another 17 times, but another 1,000-yard season and 10 touchdowns isn’t out of the question.
Running Back Bust: Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears
FantasyPros ADP: 85; My Rank: 109
It’s hard to label someone going in the eighth or ninth round as a bust, but Herbert is one of the few “starting” running backs in the league I don’t feel will have that role come the fantasy playoffs. Bears fourth-round pick Roschon Johnson reminds me of Tyler Allgeier from last season, a late draft choice that could take over as the year progresses. I’d rather have the aforementioned Williams or both Commanders backs over Herbert.
Running Back Breakout: Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FantasyPros ADP: 64; My Rank: 41
I want White on as many of my teams as possible and I love the value of getting him in the fifth or sixth round. White has little competition for touches and is a good pass-catcher, meaning he’ll be on the field at all times. The offensive line is an issue, which was evident in last year’s rushing totals, but Bucs running backs caught 146 passes last season. White’s ranking is a byproduct of Tom Brady’s retirement and not the expected usage that’s coming with Leonard Fournette no longer in the lineup.
Wide Receiver Sleeper: Odell Beckham Jr., Baltimore Ravens
FantasyPros ADP: 125; My Rank: 80
How the fantasy community has all three Ravens receivers ranked is a little confusing to me. Though he is a phenomenal player who will make an impact, Zay Flowers is ranked ahead of Rashod Bateman and Beckham as a rookie. Flowers is WR42 and Bateman is WR48, while Beckham is listed as WR54. Beckham is coming off an ACL injury which is lowering his ranking, but he’s my pick to lead the Ravens in receiving. I have the trio of receivers in the inverse order of the consensus and will gladly reap the benefits.
Wide Receiver Bust: Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
FantasyPros ADP: 39; My Rank: 75
Samuel’s production plummeted with the arrival of Christian McCaffrey and emergence of Brandon Aiyuk. McCaffrey took away the designed runs for Curtis Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk became the go-to receiver for Brock Purdy. There is no reason why Samuel should be ahead of Aiyuk, who I have as my 48th overall player. Let someone else take Samuel at his inflated risk.
Wide Receiver Breakout: Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals
FantasyPros ADP: 147; My Rank: 114
The Cardinals are going to be the worst team in the NFL, but there are a couple of bright spots remaining on the roster. Moore is entering his third campaign, and sure, there are question marks at quarterback, but he has been effective when healthy. He saw a little more than 22 percent of the targets last season and Arizona is going to be trailing often. I love taking Moore with one of my final picks.
Tight End Sleeper: Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers
FantasyPros ADP: 144; My Rank: 95
I’m big on Justin Herbert this season, and Everett is going to be a big reason Herbert is in the MVP discussion. Everett has career highs in receptions and yardage last year, and I expect his game to go to another level with Kellen Moore calling plays for the Chargers. He’s also a good bet to find the end zone more this season after scoring just twice last year despite being targeted 15 times in the red zone.
Tight End Bust: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
FantasyPros ADP: 137; My Rank: 166
Kincaid has a bright future, but history tells us that few rookie tight ends make an impact right away. I also don’t think Dawson Knox is going anywhere despite the Bills using a first-round pick on Kincaid. This is the classic case of a rookie getting overhyped and his ADP is ballooning as a result.
Tight End Breakout: Chigoziem Okonkwo
FantasyPros ADP: 127; My Rank: 127
The Maryland product is a popular choice in the fantasy community to break out this season and for good reason. He was TE9 from Week 11 until the end of the season as a result of his playing time increasing. He’s a freak athlete and the Titans don’t have many reliable options in the passing game other than DeAndre Hopkins. Okonkwo is everyone’s late-round target, so you might have to grab him a little earlier than his current ADP, but the return on investment could be worth the gamble.
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