One of the great touches in Janet Marie Smith’s work in the reimagining of Ed Smith Stadium, the Orioles’ spring training home in Sarasota, is a quote by Rogers Hornsby that sums up a baseball lifer’s dim view of the offseason. The quote is shoehorned in on a first-floor wall.
“People ask me what I do in winter when there is no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait until spring.”
Nobody has had to play the waiting game this winter quite like Orioles GM Mike Elias. It’s a game that Elias didn’t exactly ace at the trade deadline, opting to go for it with a World Series seemingly within grasp. In a deal I am sure he now regrets, Elias gambled on getting something out of the troubled right arm of Jack Flaherty. He sent lefty Drew Rom, infielder Cesar Prieto and right-hander Zack Showalter to the Cardinals in exchange.
But perhaps it is that misstep that has informed Elias as he coyly plays the waiting game to a different result.
The three most prominent names of starting pitchers that the Orioles have been rumored to be in on are Brewers right-hander Corbin Burnes, White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease and Marlins lefty Jesús Luzardo.
Suppose Elias had the prospect talent he does in Baltimore but was in charge of a big-market team like the Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Dodgers or Giants. He could have acquired Burnes without hesitation, moving some combination of Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, Cade Povich and Jordan Westburg. He could then give Burnes an extension at or near $200 million.
It’s doubtful Elias did more than check in and kick the tires on Burnes, who has just one season of club control remaining. He can’t afford the cost in both prospect talent and hard dollars to make that grand a move possible.
But in the case of Cease, Elias is playing a chess game with a first-time GM Chris Getz, who has Cease under club control for two more years before the right-hander becomes a free agent. The problem is that in Getz, Elias is dealing with someone who may very well make or break his GM tenure if he fails miserably here. Getz is most likely looking to get four or five top prospects. He is most likely asking for catcher Samuel Basallo or infielder Coby Mayo, plus some of the previously mentioned names.
On the face of it, two years of control is great, but the cost to extend Cease beyond those two years would be exorbitant.
Elias ascribes to the old wartime mantra of loose lips sinking ships. In this case, he has probably had to bite his tongue and not publicly scold or lecture Getz. But this seems like a case of the Sox GM having overplayed his hand big-time.
That brings us to Luzardo. He is still under club control for three more years. On the face of it, Luzardo’s career has been blossoming far more than it has been in full bloom. But as evidenced by his past two seasons in Miami, he’s beginning to put it all together. He posted a 3.32 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 100.1 innings (18 starts) in 2022 and marks of 3.58 and 1.22 in 178.1 innings (32 starts) in 2023. He put up those numbers with a far less gifted defensive team than the Orioles backing him up.
Luzardo has totaled 328 strikeouts in those 279 innings as well.
The problem newly minted president of baseball operations Peter Bendix faces is how does he get through the 2024 season without Sandy Alcantara, out for the year due to Tommy John surgery? Remember, the Marlins traded Pablo López to the Twins a year ago. If Bendix deals Luzardo, he’d be down to Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez and Trevor Rogers. Pérez, who turns 21 in April, is likely to be on a strict innings limit in ’24.
But there may be enough Elias could return in arms — Cole Irvin and Povich? — to make a Luzardo deal happen. Irvin could slide into the Marlins’ rotation immediately, while Povich would represent a high-ceiling prospect arm. Elias and Bendix could also expand this deal to include lefty reliever Tanner Scott, who pitched for the Orioles from 2017-2021 and is coming off a career year (2.31 ERA and 104 strikeouts in 78 innings).
My proposal: Cowser, Irvin, Norby, Ortiz and Ramón Urías for Luzardo and Scott.
For now, the clock ticks, and the waiting game goes round and round. Mike Elias is certainly on the clock, but as he looks through that window and waits for spring, he is greatly boosted by the hand he is holding.
Photo Credit: Colin Murphy/PressBox