The Baltimore Orioles have the consensus top farm system and the consensus top prospect in baseball. It’s been that way for a few years now.
The Athletic senior baseball writer Keith Law recently released his farm system and prospect rankings ahead of the 2024 season, and the Orioles and Jackson Holliday were at the top of those lists.
“I actually argued, as much as they’ve been hyped the last two years, I think the Orioles’ farm system had been kind of overrated for a little while,” Law said on Glenn Clark Radio Feb. 20. “And now it’s actually caught up to those rankings. I actually think this is the best shape that the farm system has been in.”
Even after Holliday makes his major league debut — perhaps as soon as Opening Day — the Orioles will retain a very strong and deep farm system that should remain near the top of the league.
“Even when they lose Holliday, they might still be No. 1, they might be No. 2,” Law said. “But they’re still going to be in excellent shape going forward.”
Law expects Holliday to be an impact major league player right away, comparing him to players such as Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Ronald Acuña Jr., all of whom experienced immediate success in living up to their billing as prospects.
“I think he would be very productive right away,” Law said. “And I would guess within a year or two we would be talking about him as one of the 10, 15 best players in the American League. I think he’s that advanced.”
Holliday, who turned 20 in December, should continue to tap into his power as his frame fills out. Law believes the infielder has at least 15 more pounds of muscle to grow into. Listed at 185 pounds, Holliday hit 12 home runs in 125 games across four levels last season.
Because reigning American League Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson also plays shortstop, there are questions about what position Holliday will play at the major league level. Law believes Holliday will be the Orioles’ long-term shortstop.
“I think Holliday’s hands and instincts are so good. As long as the body just doesn’t outgrow the position, I think he’s going to end up the better defensive shortstop,” Law said. “I would like the alignment with Gunnar at third, Holliday at short.”
Between Holliday, Henderson and Adley Rutschman, the Orioles have possessed three consensus No. 1 prospects in the last three years. There’s a possibility that 19-year-old catcher Samuel Basallo could be the fourth.
Basallo has skyrocketed up prospect rankings. Law has him as the Orioles No. 2 prospect and the No. 20 prospect in all of baseball. The Orioles signed Basallo out of the Dominican Republic in 2021. He slashed .313/.402/.551 with 20 homers across three levels last year, finishing with Double-A Bowie.
“He plays in the middle of the field, and he’s going to stay there. All signs right now are he’s very good defensively, and he has a bat that would profile at any position,” Law said. “If you look at the history of my No. 1 prospects, they’re pretty much all like that.”
As strong as Baltimore’s farm system is, it’s heavy on position players. With recent injuries to starting pitchers Kyle Bradish and John Means, the Orioles could look to make another major addition to their rotation. The Miami Herald reported Feb. 15 that the Orioles have had talks with the Miami Marlins regarding left-handed pitcher Jesús Luzardo.
The Marlins asking price reportedly began with Basallo, and the Orioles were unwilling to move the catcher for Luzardo. But Law believes the Orioles shouldn’t be shy about moving some of their other prospects, especially those who are blocked at the big league level by players at the same position. The Orioles have five prospects in Law’s top 100.
“I think that a lot of fans were getting frustrated. Were they hugging their prospects a little too closely? The Burnes trade showed they weren’t, because [Joey] Ortiz was theirs, born and raised,” Law said. “… I was glad to see they were willing to do that, because they might need to do it again.”
Especially if Bradish ends up needing Tommy John surgery, the Orioles might need to look outside of the organization for another rotation upgrade. Left-hander Cade Povich (No. 9) and right-hander Chayce McDermott (No. 10) are the only arms in Law’s top 10 Orioles prospects, and neither is expected to be a quality major league starter in 2024.
“[Povich and McDermott] will pitch in the big leagues this year. … Do I think they’ll be a factor? That’s probably a different question,” Law said. “How good will they be? Will any of these guys be above-average major league starters? My instinct is probably not this year. Maybe they could eventually get there, but that seems like probably asking a lot of them right now.”
For more from Law, listen to the full interview here:
Photo Credit: Courtesy of the Baltimore Orioles