It’s hard to believe that I was still in my 50s when I started my first season of MLB power rankings. In normal seasons, I have usually gotten my preliminary power rankings up much earlier in February.
But the 2023-24 offseason has been anything but normal. Super agent Scott Boras is still looking for homes for lefties Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery and third baseman Matt Chapman. He also has Cody Bellinger, who just limped back to the Cubs on a three-year, $80 million deal. The frontloaded contract pays him $60 million in the first two years. The Cubs got a discounted rate by allowing him to opt out after each of the first two seasons.
As we wait to see where Snell, Montgomery and Chapman land, let’s preview my preliminary power rankings by first breaking down the six divisions. We’ll break down the American League first.
AL East
1. New York Yankees
2. Baltimore Orioles
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Boston Red Sox
Part of why I’m picking the Yankees to win the division is based on the feeling that Carlos Rodón will step back into being a near-dominant ace. If he bounces back, Rodón will form a duo with Gerrit Cole that is just too dangerous. If they get Snell, the Yankees will be nearly unbeatable. Luxury tax penalties might stand in the way of a Snell signing, however.
The Orioles’ move to get Corbin Burnes was amazing, and he improves the pitching outlook by being the club’s first true ace since Mike Mussina left for pinstripes 20-plus years ago. But the loss of Félix Bautista and now Kyle Bradish makes finishing at the top a little tough for me to see right now. The big if here is Grayson Rodriguez. If he’s ready to be a force, then the loss of Bradish is mitigated.
I’ll have more on the Rays, Jays and Sox when I start to do the weekly rankings.
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Kansas City Royals
4. Cleveland Guardians
5. Chicago White Sox
I’ll start at the bottom here to say that the White Sox may just be the worst team in the American League — worse even than Oakland. It’s sad to see a case of squandered promise, but that’s been the case ever since owner Jerry Reinsdorf stepped over former GM Rick Hahn to hire Tony La Russa as manager at the age of 76 ahead of the 2021 season after La Russa was out of the game for 10 years.
As much as I think Stephen Vogt will be a good manager for the Guardians, he seems to have joined an organization that hasn’t committed to spending enough. I expect to see Cleveland really struggle this season.
With the Guardians and White Sox stumbling, the Twins look to be the kings of the Central. They have a nice mix of solid pitching along with a versatile and improving offense. A big key for them is to get 130 to 135 games out of Byron Buxton. He’s hoping to play the outfield almost every day, but having watched this movie for many seasons, a more likely scenario is 100 games in center field with Manuel Margot serving as his caddy.
Another key is if one-time big-time pitching prospect Chris Paddack can join Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober to give them a real nice top four in the rotation.
That leaves the improving Tigers and Royals to battle it out for second place in the Central. Hard to imagine either can make a playoff bid of any seriousness.
AL West
1. Houston Astros
2. Seattle Mariners
3. Texas Rangers
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Oakland Athletics
The AL West was contested intensely from start to finish during the regular season in 2023. The Astros and Rangers both finished 90-72, but Houston won the division due to the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Mariners finished just two games back.
As we all know, the Rangers won the World Series, but questions abound. With Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle all expected to miss substantial time, is the rotation of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, Andrew Heaney and Cody Bradford good enough to hold the fort? What’s more, they haven’t fortified their bullpen. So while they’ll be in the hunt, I don’t see them as quite good enough on the mound to win the division.
Offensively, the Rangers have the goods. Rookies Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford will give an already dynamite lineup even more firepower. The only fly in the ointment is that star shortstop Corey Seager had sports hernia surgery on Jan. 30. The Rangers are saying they expect him back by Opening Day, but this recovery can be troublesome.
Meanwhile, the Astros come back with plenty of firepower as well. They have a new dynamic with a longtime coach — and a well-respected one at that — in Joe Espada taking over as manager. His first bone to chew on was settling the closer role. It was assumed that Josh Hader would become the closer after signing with Houston in free agency, but Espada made it clear to both Hader and former closer Ryan Pressly early in camp that the job is Hader’s. Score one for the rookie manager.
The big question right now is whether Justin Verlander will make his Opening Day start. He is nursing some shoulder discomfort. He is throwing every three days on the side, but Opening Day is only four weeks away. Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and José Urquidy form a strong group behind JV.
Seattle is still a formidable foe out West. They probably have the top rotation in the AL from top to bottom. Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo give the Mariners a hell of a chance. Seattle added Mitch Garver, Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger to give the offense a boost. All in all, the M’s are an interesting team led by impeccable starting pitching.
Ron Washington will inch the Angels closer to .500 — and if they can ink Snell, maybe a couple games over. The A’s will play more close games, but their biggest focus is on where they’ll play from 2025 to 2027.
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