NFL training camps have begun, and the key to any successful season is preparation.
The same can be said for fantasy football. Whether you have the first overall pick or the last of the first round, having a sense of who will be available in each round is key.
I’ll be doing mock drafts throughout the summer, offering scenarios and feedback for each position, starting with the No. 1 pick. The point of these mocks is to prepare for the unexpected.
The mock drafts will assume that 12 teams are in the league with the following roster construction: quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, tight end, a flex (running back, wide receiver or tight end), defense, kicker and seven bench spots. It is a 16-round snake draft in a half-point-per-reception (half-PPR) league. We will mix in 10- and 16-team drafts at some point as well as Superflex and non-PPR (standard) drafts.
If you read my draft guide, you know I’m not a fan of drafting kickers and defense if it’s not necessary. I’d rather add a few running backs who could end up starters in the event of an injury. However, for the sake of this exercise, I’ll round out each draft by doing so. Remember, do not draft either before your final two picks!
Most important of all, be creative with your mock drafts. Do not take the same players in every mock. Your favorite sleeper is probably someone else’s too.
The draft is just the start of the season. If you are drafting early, work the waiver wire to your advantage if any major injuries arise. If you’re a fantasy nerd like me, turn on notifications from your favorite NFL insider for breaking news around the league. But the draft is where you build the foundation of your roster, and the goal is to have as deep a roster as possible.
This mock is for the fifth pick with a lot more fantasy analysis upcoming.
(See also: No. 1 pick, No. 2 pick, No. 3 pick, No. 4 pick)
Here is my roster:
Round 1, Pick 5: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Round 2, Pick 8: Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Round 3, Pick 5: Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round 4, Pick 8: Kenneth Walker, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Round 5, Pick 5: Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Round 6, Pick 8: George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 7, Pick 5: Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Round 8, Pick 8: Marquise Brown, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Round 9, Pick 5: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Round 10, Pick 8: J.K. Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Round 11, Pick 5: Roschon Johnson, RB, Chicago Bears
Round 12, Pick 8: Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Round 13, Pick 5: Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
Round 14, Pick 8: Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, New England Patriots
Round 15, Pick 5: Kansas City Chiefs D/ST
Round 16, Pick 8: Jason Sanders, K, Miami Dolphins
Observations:
The first round is loaded with elite wide receiver talent, so it’s hard to miss with a pick barring an injury. Ja’Marr Chase tallied 100 receptions last season, finishing as WR13. However, he was WR6 during the first 10 weeks of the season with a healthy Joe Burrow leading the Bengals’ offense. Chase is one of the most heavily targeted players in the NFL and one of the safest bets to return value inside the top 10 picks.
My fantasy darling from last season will be one of my top targets in the second round. Kyren Williams’ usage is what fantasy managers dream about. He averaged 22 touches per game and finished second in points per game a year ago. Many are fearful that Blake Corum could take away from Williams’ stranglehold on touches, but Sean McVay has shown that once he finds his guy, he will ride him into the ground.
Rachaad White, who finished as RB4 because of his heavy workload, is another player I struck gold with last season. White finished second to Christian McCaffrey in total touches and found the end zone nine times last season despite poor efficiency when given those opportunities. That has more to do with the Buccaneers’ offensive line than White’s rushing ability, and even with Bucky Irving in the mix, White should keep his role in the pass game.
I had every intention of going wide receiver with my next pick, but Kenneth Walker is one of the final running backs I’m willing to use a high pick on. He does not have RB1 upside like Williams and White because of his lack of usage as a receiver, but he’s one of the game’s best pure rushers and should get most of the goal-line carries.
I could not pass up landing Mark Andrews in the fifth round. I have him as my top tight end this year. He’s the No. 1 receiving option for Lamar Jackson, who targets his tight ends heavily. Baltimore tight ends — Andrews and Isaiah Likely — finished No. 2 in total points for tight ends. George Pickens is one of my favorite receiver targets. I grabbed him as my WR2. With Diontae Johnson gone and an upgrade at quarterback in Pittsburgh, I’m expecting big things from Pickens this season.
I do not enter a draft with the intention of stacking — having the quarterback to my star receiver — but there is no denying that the Burrow and Chase connection is one of the best duos in the NFL. The concern with Burrow has been health. He has consistently battled injuries throughout his career, but when healthy, he is one of the top fantasy assets.
I typically look to draft my quarterback and tight end in Rounds 8-11, so I have largely missed out on some players I do like in that range. Marquise Brown is consistently underrated in fantasy and now has Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback. Jaxon Smith-Njigba enters his second season and many expect him to take away a good chunk of Tyler Lockett’s targets.
The Chargers have completely revamped their running game. Former Raven J.K. Dobbins figures to be part of a rotation similar to what Greg Roman put together in Baltimore. Roschon Johnson and Tyler Allgeier are both backup running backs I’m heavily targeting in later rounds. I expect all three to still play key roles on their offenses with potential for high usage in the event of an injury to their running back mates.
Quentin Johnston was a first-round pick last April. The Chargers have let go of their top two receivers and Justin Herbert is still the QB in LA. I like Johnston’s chances to finish as a WR3 at this stage of the draft. Ja’Lynn Polk is a flier I am willing to take with my last pick because someone must catch passes for the Patriots, and he is the most talented receiver on the roster.
This team is heavy at the top with Chase headlining a team with a strong group of starting running backs, an elite tight end and star quarterback. I sacrificed talent at receiver by waiting until the sixth round to land a second receiver, albeit one I am confident about outperforming his current draft position. Hollywood Brown and JSN offer upside, but I would feel more confident if they were my fourth and fifth options as opposed to fringe starters. Rather than taking Walker in the fourth, I should have gone with Stefon Diggs or Jaylen Waddle to give me that second high-quality receiver.
What do you think of this roster? Let’s discuss on Twitter @JoeSerp.
You can do your own mock draft in seconds by clicking here.
Photo Credit: Colin Murphy/PressBox