Sitting atop the American League East standings with one of the best young cores in baseball, the Orioles selected a boom-or-bust prospect with the No. 22 overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft: University of North Carolina outfielder Vance Honeycutt.
“If he hits, he’s going to be a superstar. If he doesn’t hit, I still think he can be a valuable player,” Baseball America‘s Carlos Collazo said on Glenn Clark Radio July 17. “… There’s bust risk here, but it’s also a high-upside pick that you kind of have to take a little bit of that risk to access the tools at pick 22.”
Honeycutt, listed at 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, has the best tools in the draft class along with No. 9 overall pick Konnor Griffin, Collazo said.
Honeycutt’s arm strength, speed and raw power could have made him a top-10 pick, especially considering that Collazo called him the best defensive center fielder in the class. However, his 26.3% career strikeout rate is the highest of any player drafted out of a four-year university in the top 30 in MLB history, according to Baseball America.
Scouts were alarmed, and Honeycutt fell into the 20s as a result. The Orioles, known for their ability to develop hitters, believe they can fix him, though.
“I think for Vance, specifically, the Orioles [are] a pretty great organizational fit,” Collazo said, “just given their track record of improving a lot of hitters in their system. I don’t think I could name maybe five other teams that would be a better fit in terms of my belief in them figuring out the hit tool.”
Despite his historic strikeout struggles, Honeycutt was incredibly productive in his three years at UNC. He finished his career with 65 home runs and 76 stolen bases. This spring, Honeycutt slashed .318/.410/.714 with 28 home runs and 28 stolen bases, which ranked first and third in the ACC, respectively.
However, with the Orioles selecting outfielders with their first two draft picks last year, many wonder why they did not target a pitcher in the first round. But with No. 15 overall pick Jurrangelo Cijntje and No. 20 overall pick Trey Yesavage off the board, Collazo said a pitcher would have been a reach.
“Vance Honeycutt was the best player available for the Orioles when they were picking,” he said. “I don’t think that, regardless of your organizational strengths and weaknesses, especially in the first round, it’s worth just pivoting off the best player just to take a profile that you have less of, because, again, trades exist. … I think just collecting as much talent as possible is always a successful strategy.”
With their next three picks, the Orioles selected Virginia shortstop Griff O’Ferrall, Virginia catcher Ethan Anderson and Southern Cal outfielder Austin Overn.
Listed at 6-foot-1 and 195 pounds, O’Ferrall is the polar opposite of Honeycutt. He is polished, instinctive and advanced but lacks big-time tools like arm strength and power, Collazo said. O’Ferrall posted a .324 batting average but hit just five home runs this spring at Virginia.
“He’s probably going to be a solid, reliable middle infielder of some capacity,” Collazo said. “He is a kind of player who can sort of maximize everything he has.”
Anderson did not catch full-time at Virginia, so he does need some fine-tuning with his footwork and receiving skills, Collazo said. The 6-foot-2, 215-pounder hit for a .331 average with eight home runs in the spring.
Listed at 6-foot and 175 pounds, Overn is a similar player to Honeycutt and one of the best athletes in the class. He had a tough spring at USC, batting .270 with eight home runs, but looked like a completely different player in the Cape Cod Baseball League, which made him one of the highest risers in the draft, Collazo said.
Overn was a wide receiver on the 2022 USC football team as well.
Collazo also likes fifth-round pick Ryan Stafford, a catcher out of Cal Poly who is more refined than Anderson, and eighth-round pick Colin Tuft, a catcher who hit 12 home runs and stole 13 bases for Tulane last year.
Additionally, Collazo is intrigued by 16th-round pick and outfielder Nate George out of Minooka Community High School in Illinois.
“I’m not positive he’ll sign. High school players in [Rounds] 16 to 20, you never really know,” Collazo said. “But Nate George is like this elite athlete. He ran track in high school. The toolset is really, really exciting.”
To hear more from Collazo, listen here:
Photo Credit: Courtesy of UNC Athletics