NFL training camps are well underway, and the key to any successful season is preparation.
The same can be said for fantasy football. Whether you have the first overall pick or the last of the first round, having a sense of who will be available in each round is key.
I’ll be doing mock drafts throughout the summer, offering scenarios and feedback for each position, starting with the No. 1 pick. The point of these mocks is to prepare for the unexpected.
The mock drafts will assume that 12 teams are in the league with the following roster construction: quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, tight end, a flex (running back, wide receiver or tight end), defense, kicker and seven bench spots. It is a 16-round snake draft in a half-point-per-reception (half-PPR) league. We will mix in 10- and 16-team drafts at some point as well as Superflex and non-PPR (standard) drafts.
If you read my draft guide, you know I’m not a fan of drafting kickers and defense if it’s not necessary. I’d rather add a few running backs who could end up starters in the event of an injury. However, for the sake of this exercise, I’ll round out each draft by doing so. Remember, do not draft either before your final two picks!
Most important of all, be creative with your mock drafts. Do not take the same players in every mock. Your favorite sleeper is probably someone else’s too.
The draft is just the start of the season. If you are drafting early, work the waiver wire to your advantage if any major injuries arise. If you’re a fantasy nerd like me, turn on notifications from your favorite NFL insider for breaking news around the league. But the draft is where you build the foundation of your roster, and the goal is to have as deep a roster as possible.
We have reached the middle of the first round with the seventh pick with a lot more fantasy analysis upcoming.
(See also: No. 1 pick, No. 2 pick, No. 3 pick, No. 4 pick, No. 5 pick, No. 6 pick, Superflex)
Here is my roster:
Round 1, Pick 7: Breece Hall, RB, New York Jets
Round 2, Pick 6: Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Round 3, Pick 7: Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
Round 4, Pick 6: DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Round 5, Pick 7: Jaylen Waddle, WR, Miami Dolphins
Round 6, Pick 6: Keenan Allen, WR, Chicago Bears
Round 7, Pick 7: Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders
Round 8, Pick 6: Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
Round 9, Pick 7: Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
Round 10, Pick 6: Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
Round 11, Pick 7: Dallas Goedert, TE, Philadelphia Eagles
Round 12, Pick 6: Tyler Allgeier, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Round 13, Pick 7: Adam Thielen, WR, Carolina Panthers
Round 14, Pick 6: Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Round 15, Pick 7: Philadelphia Eagles D/ST
Round 16, Pick 6: Younghoe Koo, K, Atlanta Falcons
Observations:
There are five running backs I am comfortable taking in the first round. Breece Hall is RB3 and No. 8 overall on my draft board, but the scarcity of running backs makes landing one of the elite backs a priority. Hall defied the odds last season by returning to form much quicker than expected after a knee injury, finishing with 994 rushing yards. More impressive, he caught 76 passes for 591 yards. The Jets’ quarterback play was rough, to say the least, so Hall might not be on the receiving end of the large number of dump-offs, but New York’s offense should be better as whole, with more touchdown opportunities coming his way.
Few running backs offer the volume that Kyren Williams brings to the table, making this pick one of the safest in the second round. Williams was the undisputed leader of the backfield for the Rams, and despite Blake Corum joining the mix, head coach Sean McVay has shown loyalty to his lead back. Williams was second in the league in total touches, and even if Corum does take away some snaps, there is still enough volume to return value.
Landing two top running backs with my first two picks allows us to focus on receiver with the next four picks. All four wideouts selected — Nico Collins, DK Metcalf, Jaylen Waddle and Keenan Allen — are cogs of some of the league’s best receiving corps. All four have, at a minimum, WR2 potential. They’re all an injury away from getting even more targets than expected. Some other teams I have drafted have been filled with high-upside choices, but this mock has been more safe than sorry.
After the run on receivers, it felt good to land two running backs I feel comfortable taking in the middle portion of the draft. Brian Robinson Jr. is wildly underrated as a pass-catcher, and while some fear Austin Ekeler will eat into his production, I see no reason for the third-year back to not flirt with 200 carries and 30 receptions once again. Tyjae Spears cut into Derrick Henry’s touches last season, and let’s face it, Tony Pollard is no Henry.
Quarterbacks and tight ends kept dropping in this draft to the point that I was able to select Jordan Love (QB9 and No. 67 overall in my rankings) at pick No. 103. I still had some quality options at tight end with my Round 10 pick, so picking Courtland Sutton, a clear No. 1 receiver, made sense. Dallas Goedert is third in the pecking order in Philadelphia’s passing game, but you know what you’re getting from him each season. He has averaged 50 receptions, 10-plus yards per catch and four touchdowns per season since entering the league.
The last three choices all have massive upside for final picks. Tyler Allgeier becomes a must-start at running back if Bijan Robinson misses time. Adam Thielen is criminally underrated after finishing tied for 14th in targets last season with 137. The Panthers traded for Diontae Johnson and drafted Xavier Legette, so there is competition in the room, but Thielen has the surest hands of the bunch. Those in Baltimore have been waiting for Rashod Bateman to live up to his first-round potential. He’s the type of dart throw we can afford to make late in the draft.
It is reassuring to land one of the top running backs, but doubling down at the position left me weaker at receiver than I’d like. At this point, I’ve completed some best ball drafts and we’re now entering redraft season. I think it’s important to exit the first two rounds with a running back and a receiver to build around. I love the value of waiting at quarterback. Dallas Goedert is where I draw the line for the top tight ends. FantasyPros graded this out as one of my best drafts yet, but I need one of the receivers to outperform their ADP to feel more confident about this squad.
What do you think of this roster? Let’s discuss on Twitter @JoeSerp.
You can do your own mock draft in seconds by clicking here.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox