Spencer Schultz, whose favorite plays can be seen on PressBoxOnline.com, recently shared his tips for betting on NFL games, a few under-the-radar teams he likes and more.
PressBox: What’s your advice ahead of Week 1 for a bettor who is just starting out?
Spencer Schultz: For a beginner bettor, I think it’s key when you’re looking at Week 1 to think about teams that haven’t had a lot of turnover, that have been successful over the last couple of years. Think about injuries through camp, things of that nature. Look at teams that are often prepared and you think of as strong organizations with strong head coaches that have a capable quarterback. We know that rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle, especially early on in the season. We know that learning a new offense can take time for those who have had a change in their play-caller, head coach, offensive coordinator.
And of course, there are exceptions to that rule, but generally you want to bet early and often on continuity and teams that have been there, done that. You know that they’ve had a successful training camp. Typically, they come out and are competitive. Teams that have consistently competed for the playoffs, it’s part of their DNA. Early on, you want to bet against rookie quarterbacks. You want to bet against teams that have had a lot of change and bet on teams that are the opposite.
PB: What are your favorite bets when looking at a given game? Point spread? Player props?
SS: I love player props and I love alternate spreads. Spreads are put in place to bait traffic and to also deter really large bettors. You might look at something and say, “Oh, 57 percent of the public is on a certain spread,’ [but] you might want to look at the money and look at bigger bettors a little bit more. That more so is typically what Vegas is going to be concerned with. Lines are set against you. Lines are set to bait you. Every sports betting app gives you the ability to pick your own lines. You can always buy a point and throw in a light prop — a running back to get 30 or 50 yards rushing — to give yourself back those odds.
For instance, the Chiefs are -3 against the Ravens in Week 1. If you like the Ravens to cover three, you can always go buy the Ravens [one to three points] and then go do Lamar Jackson to rush for 30 yards and throw for 150 yards and then you’re back at the same odds you would’ve been at +3. Is there a little more risk in those prop bets hitting? Sure, but what I’m trying to say is you don’t have to go with the most popular option. There are tons of alternatives you can choose to build your own bet as opposed to picking what they’re putting in front of you to take your money.
PB: How can bettors find bets they like on an NFL Sunday rather than getting bogged down by all the possibilities?
SS: I play some daily fantasy, too, and sometimes I’ll try to cross-reference. What is the price for a certain player on DraftKings versus what is their prop? If I see that DeAndre Hopkins is the third-most expensive receiver on the day and then I head over to FanDuel and his prop yardage is 56 yards, why is DraftKings so high on him? It sparks the question. Why does that line seem low? Who’s wrong? I think betting on touchdown-makers as the season goes on [is effective]. Josh Allen last year was a huge cash cow for rushing touchdowns. Quarterbacks are often discounted. I love quarterback rushing yards. I love quarterback rushing touchdowns on the mobile side.
But I also think that receiving yards for running backs are hugely, hugely overlooked. Maybe not Austin Ekeler, but maybe a more league-average back that gets some playing time, you can get 3-to-1 sometimes on a starting running back to have 25 receiving yards. If you think a team might not win, they’re probably going to trail then. If they’re going to trail, what are they going to do? Throw the ball, and a couple of those are probably going to the running back. Longest reception is something I like a lot as well. I think that those are kind of random and you can look at a secondary or look at a defense that has had some trouble. If Tyreek Hill has a 33.5 yards longest reception, he does that more times than he doesn’t.
PB: What under-the-radar teams are you excited to bet on early in the season before others catch on to those teams being better than expected?
SS: I think that Kyler Murray has a lot to prove with the Cardinals. I think they’ve had a tumultuous couple of years. Murray had a [torn ACL]. I think the Cardinals are one team that stands out for their win total. I think that Bryce Young was in a really dysfunctional setup [in Carolina]. I like [new head coach] Dave Canales a lot. I think they might not win more than seven games, but that’s not what their total is currently. Jim Harbaugh coming to Los Angeles, he’s been successful in the NFL, he’s been successful in college. This is maybe a little bit more popular pick, but Justin Herbert is getting into an offense where the pressure is taken off of him a little bit. He’ll have hopefully a stronger running game.
I like Dan Quinn in Washington as they’re starting to phase out of the Dan Snyder ownership and make their own path. Quinn has also been a successful head coach. I like young quarterbacks who can run because it gives them a weapon, a way of moving the ball and scoring points that doesn’t require them to be overwhelmed as a passer immediately. Jayden Daniels can certainly run. They’ve got weapons. I think they should be a lot more toward league-average. I don’t think their division is quite as strong this year.
The New York Giants had a terrible year last year, and it felt like they were stuck in a weird spot. They’ve made some moves to improve their offensive line. Daniel Jones had a full offseason to get healthy. They didn’t bring in another quarterback. It’s a big year for him to prove his worth. I think they’ve adjusted their offensive line. I expect them to be a lot more competitive than they were last year. I think Brian Daboll is a heck of an offensive mind. They brought in Brian Burns and are a little bit healthier, so I like the Giants too.
I’ll say the Browns as well. The Browns are removed now from the drama of the Deshaun Watson situation. He should be a little bit healthier. They probably would’ve been a very good team if he could’ve stayed healthier a little bit longer last year.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox
Issue 288: August/September 2024
Originally published Aug. 14, 2024