In fantasy football, you try to minimize risk by drafting the best available players. Some are ranked too high, some are ranked too low and others are ready to become household names.
It is just a matter of figuring out who those players are. I am here to help.
I will dive through some of my favorite sleepers, busts and breakout players for the 2024 season. A sleeper is a player I feel is ranked a few rounds too low. A bust is player I don’t think will live up to his ADP (average draft position). A breakout player is a young player I feel will outperform his ADP.
To be clear, a bust does not mean you should not draft that player at all. If the value is right, go ahead and make the pick. Same goes for a sleeper. Do not reach too high when better players are available. Breakout players are guys I’m willing to reach a bit on to land.
Last year, I had Deshaun Watson listed as my QB bust and he finished as QB35. On the flip side, I had Rachaad White as my breakout RB and he finished as RB7. The year prior, I was correct to label Damien Harris a bust (finished RB48) and Trevor Lawrence a breakout player (finished QB8).
I will compare my rankings to the half-point per reception expert consensus rankings (ECR) at FantasyPros. Let’s go position-by-position with sleepers, busts and breakout candidates as we inch closer to the Thursday, Sept. 5 opener.
Quarterback Sleeper: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
FantasyPros ADP: 87; My Rank: 67
I was tempted to list Anthony Richardson or Jayden Daniels in this spot, but both players have been hyped up enough by the rest of the fantasy community. I will gladly take the value that comes with drafting Goff in the later rounds after he finished back-to-back seasons as a top-10 fantasy quarterback. He does next to nothing as a rusher so he does not offer the upside of the previously mentioned young quarterbacks, but he is a safe bet to finish with 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns. He is my favorite QB2 in Superflex leagues, and if you use ESPN as your platform, he is criminally ranked at 163 overall.
Quarterback Bust: C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
FantasyPros ADP: 55; My Rank: 84
I will pound the table with this take. Do not take Stroud as a top-five quarterback. It’s not that Stroud is a bad quarterback, but he offers little as a rusher. If I am taking a quarterback as high as Stroud is going off draft boards, I want a quarterback who is going to make plays with his feet. What is scarier to me is that Stroud finished as QB11 last year when quarterbacks were dropping like flies on a weekly basis. His fantasy finish was inflated by a 40-plus effort in Week 9, but he was otherwise average from a fantasy perspective. If he could barely finish as a QB1 last year, I want nothing to do with Stroud, who is going as QB5 by some. I would rather wait a few rounds and draft Goff instead.
Quarterback Breakout: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
FantasyPros ADP: 106; My Rank: 76
Is it cheating to go back to my sleeper pick from two years ago? Not when he is available as QB16 and outside the top 100 overall. The Jaguars got off to a great start last season with an 8-3 record, but ironically, Lawrence’s play was mediocre for fantasy purposes during that stretch. Jacksonville lost five of their final six games, but Lawrence had four straight weeks with 20-plus points during that time. We anointed the Jaguars the best team in the AFC South a year too soon and Lawrence finishes as a QB1 once again.
Running Back Sleeper: Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
FantasyPros ADP: 73; My Rank: 46
Last year’s RB2 is a sleeper? He sure is when you can land him in the seventh or eighth round and is going well behind his teammate. De’Von Achane is going as a top-30 player overall, but you can get the true No. 1 running back in Miami well after that. Mostert is up there in age and there is no chance he finds the end zone 21 times again, but he has never finished with lower than 4.8 yards per carry in his career and now has back-to-back healthy seasons on his resume. Achane is the sexier name and might have the highlight-reel plays, but Mostert is the clear goal-line back. Another double-digit touchdown campaign is on the horizon. Honorable mention here is Tyjae Spears. I have him ranked much higher than the consensus as well.
Running Back Bust: D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
FantasyPros ADP: 76; My Rank: 90
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. I am out on another former Eagles running back landing a free-agent contract and expecting him to take over as the lead back for his new team. Miles Sanders had a hold of the starting job in Carolina for a few weeks a year ago before Chuba Hubbard took over and ran away with the job. Swift lands in a situation with multiple other capable backs. Khalil Herbert is still getting touches. Roschon Johnson is a bigger back who can catch passes just as well as Swift. This smells like a committee in the making, so I cannot justify spending draft capital on Swift at his current ADP. Meanwhile, I am targeting Johnson often with one of my final picks.
Running Back Breakout: James Cook, Buffalo Bills
FantasyPros ADP: 44; My Rank: 17
The similarities between Buccaneers running back Rachaad White and Cook make me all-in on the Bills’ lead back. (I had White listed here a year ago.) Both are third-year running backs known as terrific pass-catchers and don’t have much competition for carries. Cook was more efficient with his touches, racking up 1,567 yards of total offense on 281 touches, while White totaled 1,539 yards on 336 touches. Cook was unleashed in the second half of the 2023 season once Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator. The Bills’ passing game figures to take a step back with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis leaving. Buffalo could run the ball more. Cook’s usage as a receiver should increase as well. I am all about taking advantage of value picks, but Cook is one of those players I am willing to reach for in every draft.
Wide Receiver Sleeper: Josh Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers
FantasyPros ADP: 123; My Rank: 89
This all comes down to who is available in the Chargers’ receiving room. Keenan Allen’s 150 targets are up for grabs. All the hype is for rookie Ladd McConkey to get a good chunk of those looks, give me the experienced receiver in the offense. Palmer battled injuries of his own last season, but when he filled in for Mike Williams, he was the downfield threat in the offense. Greg Roman’s offense emphasizes the run game, but need I remind you that Justin Herbert is the quarterback for this team? You can land Palmer with one of your final picks. He has the upside to finish as a WR2. I think he’s at minimum a WR3.
Wide Receiver Bust: Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams
FantasyPros ADP: 14; My Rank: 30
This one is sure to create some buzz as most have last year’s WR4 inside their top 15 wideouts, but that was because Cooper Kupp was out for much of the season with hamstring and ankle injuries. Kupp is healthy entering this season, while Nacua is dealing with a knee issue. All indications out of Rams camp are that Kupp is back to being the go-to receiver in the offense. I don’t think Nacua will be a nonfactor, but I believe we see a split in the production between the two receivers. I currently have Kupp as my WR15 and Nacua at WR20, far below his consensus ranking. I am not avoiding Nacua all together if he falls in drafts, but I am not taking him in the top half of the second round.
Wide Receiver Breakout: Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
FantasyPros ADP: 62; My Rank: 39
George Pickens is my top guy, but he is everyone’s favorite pick to break out this season. Rashee Rice is going a few picks behind Pickens even though he has the far superior quarterback targeting his direction. Rice’s ranking is lower than it should be because of off-field situations that could result in a suspension, but it looks like he could avoid that this season as the NFL waits for the courts to go through their process first. It took Rice a few weeks to get up to speed last season, but once he and Patrick Mahomes got into a rhythm, there was no denying who was Mahomes’ top WR. Second-year receivers typically see their production increase, and the latest injury to Marquise Brown creates even more opportunities. Rice has potential to be a 1,000-yard receiver in what I expect to be an improved Chiefs offense.
Tight End Sleeper: Tyler Conklin, New York Jets
FantasyPros ADP: 160; My Rank: 120
Conklin is unlike any other sleeper in this piece because there is a chance he is not selected in most 10- or 12-team leagues. He is TE19 in the consensus rankings. In a remarkable feat, Conklin has finished with 87 targets in three straight seasons (13th most in 2023, tied for seventh in 2022 and 12th in 2021). He was the only tight end with more than 600 receiving yards to not score a single touchdown last season, so there is only room for growth. Lousy quarterback play has held him back, but a healthy Aaron Rodgers should bring Conklin to TE1 status.
Tight End Bust: David Njoku, Cleveland Browns
FantasyPros ADP: 102; My Rank: 144
Most of the players I am labeling as busts I can talk myself into if they fall in drafts, but the one I am avoiding at all costs is Njoku. He averaged 7.3 points per game in Weeks 1-13, then exploded with Joe Flacco at the helm. He averaged 18.3 points in the final four games, the best at the position during the fantasy playoffs. Flacco has always targeted his tight ends, but that has never been a major part of the Deshaun Watson’s game. Steer clear of Njoku in all drafts and make him someone else’s problem.
Tight End Breakout: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
FantasyPros ADP: 77; My Rank: 73
It is finally time to get the Kyle Pitts we have all dreamed of in fantasy football. The Falcons inexcusably misused Pitts under Arthur Smith — who did the same to Bijan Robinson — but the new coaching regime brought in a quarterback who likes to target his tight ends. Pitts saw 90 targets last season but hauled in just 53 of them for 667 yards and three scores. Two other tight ends also had 90 targets: George Kittle, who finished as TE5 and the only tight end to have over 1,000 yards receiving, and Cole Kmet, TE7 thanks to his six touchdowns, tied for most at the position. Call me crazy, but Pitts has the potential to finish as TE1 overall. You can get him in the seventh or eighth round.
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