OK, so we know Orioles GM Mike Elias doesn’t walk on water. Or at least he isn’t always right. The brilliance and speed with which he resurrected the Orioles from the depths of despair still carries an awful lot of weight in my opinion of him.
But I also always measure his accomplishments with the financial constraints he was operating under for the first five years of his time here. That, to me, is the amazing part of what he has done to date, but the stakes have been upped by a mile and so have expectations. As such, the critics are coming out of the woodwork.
There have been mistakes. Trading Tanner Scott wasn’t exactly a brilliant moment. Neither was releasing Evan Phillips. Drafting Adley Rutschman over Bobby Witt Jr. wasn’t the right move. (And I know I wrote a piece contrary to what I am saying now back in early May.) have no idea why the Orioles didn’t get the Jack Flaherty of 2024 in the last two months of 2023, but the package the O’s sent to St. Louis shouldn’t come back to bite too badly.
That brings us to Elias’ work ahead of the deadline this year. Remember, my takeaways on Sept. 2 may change in the weeks ahead.
Let’s start with Austin Hays for Seranthony Domínguez. While not perfect, Domínguez has to grade out as more valuable to the Orioles than the 2024 version of Hays. Domínguez came aboard at a very uncertain time for the Orioles’ pen. He hasn’t totally righted the ship, but he has steadied the situation. Craig Kimbrel’s fade left Brandon Hyde in a bind in late-game situations, and Domínguez has helped out. Let’s grade this as a solid “B.”
Let’s move on to the deal for Zach Eflin. Make no mistake about it — the Rays extracted a heavy but fair price for a season-plus of the talented right-hander. All he has done so far is go 5-0, his latest win a seven-inning performance at Coors Field in which he gave up just one run. All told, he has thrown 32.1 innings of 1.95 ERA ball with a 0.96 WHIP. He has given up just three homers, walked only three batters and struck out 34.
Giving up right-hander Jackson Baumeister, outfielder Matthew Etzel and utility man Mac Horvath might end up being a bummer one day, but not today. Let’s grade this one as an “A+.”
Like I said earlier in this missive, an opinion that seems obvious to everyone today may begin to evolve as we get more performances in our database. Such is the case of perhaps the riskiest deal Elias pulled off. This one has the O’s sending pitching prospects Seth Johnson and Moisés Chace to Philadelphia for lefty reliever Gregory Soto. The critics pointed out that Elias picked up two relievers in the midst of down seasons in Philly (Domínguez and Soto) in an effort to improve the ‘pen.
Yes, Soto was awful early on. He couldn’t throw strikes and was giving up runs in bunches. But it sure seems like Soto has simplified his unwieldy delivery to make his movements much more compact, a credit to pitching coach Drew French. Soto has allowed zero runs and one hit in his last nine appearances (8.1 innings), walking two and striking out 11 during that time. Most importantly, as those outings have added up, he has entered manager Brandon Hyde’s circle of trust. More high-leverage opportunities should follow.
Soto might even get save chances down the stretch. His reemergence is huge to this team’s chances of making a deep run. He is also under club control through 2025. Let’s grade this trade a “B+.”
Last and certainly least, there is the trade that sent Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby to the Marlins for Trevor Rogers. Let’s at least give Elias credit for being aggressive in targeting a second starter even after acquiring Eflin. He knew Cade Povich had a 50-50 shot at best of being a meaningful contributor down the stretch. The club also had lost an awful lot of confidence in Cole Irvin.
Elias was also operating in a world where Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo were viewed as untouchable. That immediately took the Orioles out of the Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet world.
Rogers posted a 3.16 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in his last nine starts in a Marlins uniform, offering hope that he had rediscovered some of what made him so good in 2021. He’s also under club control through 2026, though that may not seem particularly important since Rogers was just awful in four starts for Baltimore. The Orioles chose to quickly try to fix him, sending him down to Triple-A Norfolk.
I can’t sit here and tell you this is a good trade at the moment. And there’s no reason to get ticked off that Norby and Stowers are taking advantage of opportunities in Miami. Good for them. Trades have to work for both teams. Yet, they don’t always. Rogers will need to reinvent himself with the help of the organization. I have not given up on the left-hander yet, but right now this deal should be graded as a “D-.”
For this deal to not be viewed as a disaster, Rogers needs to show a lot more in 2025. The Orioles never acquired him to be Jon Lester or CC Sabathia. They viewed him as a back-end starter who could eat innings and keep the team in games. That’s what the Orioles will need from Rogers in the future.
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