Spencer Schultz (@ravens4dummies on Twitter/X) has joined PressBox to share his favorite plays each day.
Josh Allen over 1.5 passing TD’s. Josh Allen 3+ passing TDs.
Allen has crossed this mark in 12 of 12 starts against the Dolphins. He has also thrown 2+ TD passes in 5 of 6 Thursday Night Football games. The only time he didn’t was in 2019.
Take 4+ touchdowns at long odds if you dare.
Jaylen Waddle over 65.5 yards.
Waddle averaged 3.2 yards per route run against two high coverages in 2023, second only to Tyreek Hill (4.1). Waddle’s line is 40 yards lower than Hill’s and Hill garners more attention from the Bills (he’s never crossed 100 yards against them as a Dolphin.)
Over 47.5 total points.
The last three true TNF openers (week 2 Thursday Night Football on a short week) have reached 50 points scored. In 2023, the Eagles topped the Vikings, 34-28, in 2022; the Chiefs bested the Chargers, 27-24; and the Giants beat the Commanders, 30-29, in 2021. I only looked back until 2021 because of the COVID-impacted season. The Bills and Dolphins have also reached this mark in three of their last four contests. If looking to parlay for negative correlation, I would select under 56.5 points.
Parlay: Josh Allen 2+ passing TDs, Jaylen Waddle 60+ receiving yards, De’Von Achane anytime touchdown, Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown, Khalil Shakir 4+ receptions, under 57.5 points.
Photo by Ed Sheahin/PressBox
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