Let’s dive into some news and notes around the league, my top fantasy plays and favorite picks for Week 5.
Notes:
• Week 5 is the first week that NFL teams are on a bye, so make sure to set your lineups accordingly. The Chargers, Eagles, Lions and Titans are all out of action, so check out my waiver-wire pickups if you need a replacement for this week.
• Derrick Henry is now one of the top fantasy scoring leaders after his dominating performance against the Bills on Sunday. King Henry rushed for 199 yards, including an 87-yard touchdown on Baltimore’s first offensive play. If you are an owner who scooped him up in the second or third round, you are reaping the benefits.
• Ravens tight end Mark Andrews is not enjoying the same success. The former All-Pro has zero catches and just two targets the last two weeks, but what is more concerning is the dip in playing time as the season progresses. In the first two weeks, Andrews was on the field for 74 and 63 percent of snaps, compared to 66 and 49 percent for Isaiah Likely. In the last two weeks, Likely has played 62 and 54 percent of plays, while Andrews is on the field for just 33 and 46 percent of the Ravens’ offensive plays.
• If you spent high draft capital to land Andrews, I am not saying to drop him just yet. But start looking for alternative options until the production increases.
• Speaking of tight ends, it was another brutal week for the position. Just five tight ends finished with double-digit fantasy points (half-PPR scoring) in Week 4, and only three tight ends have gone over 100 yards receiving in a game this season. Hang on to your high draft picks, but with the state of the position, having two tight ends and playing the matchups might be the best strategy moving forward.
• Jayden Daniels was a popular sleeper choice for those fading quarterback until the later rounds, and fantasy owners have been rewarded as the rookie is QB1 after four weeks. The Heisman Trophy winner has not only been effective with his legs, but his 82.1 percent completion percentage is the highest for any player in NFL history in their first four games. Tom Brady previously held that record. There is no reason to believe Daniels does not continue this fantastic start. He is a top-five option every week.
• Remember to check the weather heading into Sunday for your kicker selection.
Thursday Night Game: Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Sunday Morning Game: Jets vs. Vikings (London)
Sunday Night Game: Cowboys vs. Steelers
Monday Night Games: Saints vs. Chiefs
Start ‘Em:
Quarterback: Geno Smith
Running Back: D’Andre Swift
Wide Receiver: Wan’Dale Robinson
Tight End: Colby Parkinson
Defense: Patriots
Sit ‘Em:
Quarterback: Trevor Lawrence
Running Back: Rico Dowdle
Wide Receiver: Jakobi Meyers
Tight End: Mike Gesicki
Defense: Texans
Sleepers:
Quarterback: Andy Dalton
Running Back: Jaylen Wright
Wide Receiver: Michael Wilson
Tight End: Johnny Mundt
Defense: Falcons
NFL Picks for Week 5
Weekly Pick ‘Em (Season Record: 33-31)
Falcons (vs. Buccaneers)
Jets (vs. Vikings)
Bears (vs. Panthers)
Bengals (vs. Ravens)
Bills (vs. Texans)
Jaguars (vs. Colts)
Patriots (vs. Dolphins)
Commanders (vs. Browns)
Raiders (vs. Broncos)
49ers (vs. Cardinals)
Packers (vs. Rams)
Seahawks (vs. Giants)
Cowboys (vs. Steelers)
Chiefs (vs. Saints)
Five Picks Against The Spread (Season Record: 11-9)
Jets +2.5 vs. Vikings
Bengals +2.5 vs. Ravens
Bills +1 vs. Texans
Raiders +3 vs. Broncos
Cowboys +2.5 vs. Steelers
Five Over-Under Totals (Season Record: 12-8)
Buccaneers-Falcons ynder 43.5
Jaguars-Colts under 46
Dolphins-Patriots under 36.5
Cardinals-49ers over 50.5
Saints-Chiefs over 42.5
One Bold Prediction for the Week
Week 1: Jayden Daniels finishes as a top-5 fantasy QB against the Buccaneers. (Off to a good start!)
Week 2: Greg Dortch finishes as a top-25 WR against the Rams. (WR89 – Yikes!)
Week 3: Derek Carr makes it three straight weeks as a top-five fantasy QB against the Eagles. (Major miss)
Week 4: Malik Nabers remains WR1 after scoring two touchdowns against division rival Dallas Cowboys. (Still WR1, but no touchdowns)
Week 5: A running back will finish with more than 100 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards for the first time this season.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox