PressBox recently chatted with longtime gaming reporter Bill Ordine about the early-season trends he’s seeing in the NFL, what futures bets he likes and more.
This has been edited for clarity.
PressBox: What early-season trends are you noticing?
Bill Ordine: Early on, the scoring was down. That seemed to benefit underdogs. Underdogs have scored pretty well against the spread, and the under has scored pretty well against the over-under. Whether or not that continues remains to be seen, but that has been the early trend. This was also true in the 2023 season: What we have noticed is that in the NFL Draft lately quarterbacks have gone high. Not only have quarterbacks gone high in the draft, but they’ve also been handed the starting jobs. When that occurs, scoring tends to be down. At least against the spread, it seems to be working in favor of the underdogs.
PB: What futures bets do you like a quarter of the way through the season?
BO: I think this season has provided an interesting assortment of surprise teams. The Vikings [started the season well] with Sam Darnold, who most observers had written off as basically an NFL failure. It has implications right now for wagering. One of those implications is Darnold as Comeback Player of the Year. Another implication would be for Kevin O’Connell to be Coach of the Year. Obviously, they’ve got to hold serve here. That is something to watch.
The other thing that I think is worthy of people considering wagers on is the situation in Washington, where Jayden Daniels has been lights out. He’s been lights out to the extent that he is posting all-time records. Dan Quinn, who is probably best known for having snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in a Super Bowl, is probably an interesting wager on Coach of the Year as you look at those kinds of things.
Stepping back and looking at value, I’ve always been a Mike Tomlin fan. His record seems to support that. They’re in a competitive division. The AFC North title is going to come down to, it looks like, the matchups between the Steelers and Ravens. If Tomlin gets one of those two games, his team is going to at least be in the hunt going down the stretch for the AFC North title. I think the odds on that are attractive for the Steelers.
In terms of the Super Bowl, you’ve got those Kansas City Chiefs. They’re the 900-pound gorilla. In the NFC, it is a lot more of a horse race, specifically with the 49ers struggling [with injuries]. If they get out of those injuries, they should continue to be the class of the NFC. But if you’re more pessimistic about how they’re going to actually fare relative to the injuries they have to deal with, then that conference is pretty wide open.
PB: Even with a rough start to the season, the Ravens continued to be favored to win the AFC North. Why is that?
BO: I regard John Harbaugh as a pretty good coach. I know there are lots of criticisms and there is a history of the Ravens not doing well in the second half of games, but generally I think Harbaugh brings his team into games ready to play and consequently puts them in a position to maybe squander games at the end. I believe that the Ravens are certainly the class of the division. So much really does fall on the quarterback.
However, it’s clear that Derrick Henry has plenty left in the tank. If that was a concern in the offseason about Henry … so far, he has proven himself to be, in that sense, an outlier as it applies to running backs in the NFL. They need to keep Henry as fresh as possible because anyone who has watched this league knows this is all going to come down to December and January. If they can give enough work to other portions of the offense and keep Henry somewhat fresh going into December and January, then they are as dangerous as anybody.
Eventually, you’ve got to get through Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes, who is this generation’s Tom Brady. He just makes magic happen, just like Brady always made magic happen. You’ve got to beat that. You’ve got to beat the magic.
They’ve got to play the Steelers twice. That’s a tough team and it’s well-coached and they don’t have a lot of marquee names other than on defense. … The problem for Pittsburgh is going to be trying to make something out of nothing offensively. That’s difficult to do on a consistent basis. The Ravens have much more quality on offense than the Steelers do. The Ravens are very capable of going 2-0 against those guys. I don’t think the Steelers are able to go 2-0 against the Ravens — they would be lucky to go 1-1 — but if they do, from a betting point of view, maybe Pittsburgh gets to squeeze out the division title.
PB: Do Ravens games present opportunities for in-play wagers, especially if they get a quick two-score lead and can lean on Derrick Henry?
BO: Yes, absolutely. If the Ravens can be frontrunners and they want to hold on to a lead in the second half and they want to burn the clock, Derrick Henry then becomes an over-under wager for those types of games, no question about it. He is the kind of guy who, even though the opposition knows he’s going to get the rock, is going to make his yards. For the Ravens, that’s particularly the case because they’ve got this terrific big personnel offensive lineup, I think starting with the fullback. You watch those guys line up in any kind of formation, you just follow Patrick Ricard. Watch him and that’s where the football’s going. That is a betting opportunity for observers in the middle of the game. If the Ravens get out in front and you’re looking at an over-under for Henry’s yards for the game, I like the over.
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