Let’s dive into some news and notes around the league, my top fantasy plays and favorite picks for Week 12.
Notes:
• It was another terrible week for tight ends drafted early this summer. Brock Bowers was the 10th tight end drafted and scored 24.8 points in Week 11. Evan Engram was the next-best top-10 tight end and only scored 5.3 points as TE23. Travis Kelce, the top tight end drafted, was TE38 with just 1.8 points. Sunday showed why I have been banging the table for years for fantasy managers to have Taysom Hill. I have no problem sticking it out with Hill when he scores 5.1 points in Week 8 because the upside is his 38.5-point day in Week 11. Hill has finished as a top-10 tight end the last two seasons and is on pace to do so once again.
• Jared Goff has been my ride-or-die quarterback this season. There have been weeks when Goff has frustrated fantasy owners because the Lions dominated the opposition and took the air out of the ball. Then you have weeks like Sunday when the Lions’ offense is so hot that everyone finds the end zone. Goff threw four touchdown passes. Amon-Ra St. Brown and David Montgomery each had two scores. Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs found the end zone as well. The schedule gets tougher for Detroit the rest of the way, but I am starting all Lions with confidence.
• There are six teams on a bye this week — Bengals, Bills, Falcons, Jaguars, Jets and Saints — so the waiver wire will be active with some of the game’s best out of action. Make sure to check my waiver-wire pickups and weekly rankings when making roster decisions.
• It has not rained in the Northeast in a while, but I cannot stress enough the importance of checking the weather when making your kicker selection. This is even more important as we enter the colder months. I like to target kickers playing in domes or in warmer climates like Miami. Do not stay loyal to one kicker at this stage of the season. The same goes for defenses. A couple points could be the difference between a playoff spot and just missing out.
• It’s crunch time for fantasy owners. If you are at the top of your league, start game-planning for the fantasy playoffs. If you are battling to get in, make that all-in move to bolster your lineup. The fantasy trade deadline is approaching for most leagues, so do whatever it takes to have the best team the rest of the way.
Thursday Night Game: Steelers vs. Browns
Sunday Night Game: Eagles vs. Rams
Monday Night Game: Ravens vs. Chargers
Start ‘Em:
Quarterback: Bo Nix
Running Back: Kareem Hunt
Wide Receiver: Quentin Johnston
Tight End: T.J. Hockenson
Defense: Buccaneers
Sit ‘Em:
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford
Running Back: J.K. Dobbins
Wide Receiver: Xavier Legette
Tight End: Dalton Schultz
Defense: Titans
Sleepers:
Quarterback: Drake Maye
Running Back: Ameer Abdullah
Wide Receiver: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Tight End: Ja’Tavion Sanders
Defense: Ravens
NFL Picks for Week 12
Weekly Pick ‘Em (Season Record: 104-62)
Steelers (vs. Browns)
Lions (vs. Colts)
Chiefs (vs. Panthers)
Vikings (vs. Bears)
Commanders (vs. Cowboys)
Buccaneers (vs. Giants)
Dolphins (vs. Patriots)
Texans (vs. Titans)
Broncos (vs. Raiders)
Cardinals (vs. Seahawks)
Packers (vs. 49ers)
Eagles (vs. Rams)
Chargers (vs. Ravens)
Five Picks Against The Spread (Season Record: 32-23)
Cowboys +10.5 vs. Commanders
Buccaneers -5 vs. Giants
Cardinals +1 vs. Seahawks
Eagles -3 vs. Rams
Chargers +3 vs. Ravens
Five Over-Under Totals (Season Record: 29-25-1)
Steelers-Browns under 36
Vikings-Bears under 39.5
Patriots-Dolphins over 46
Broncos-Raiders under 41
49ers-Packers over 47.5
One Bold Prediction for the Week
Week 1: Jayden Daniels finishes as a top-five fantasy QB against the Buccaneers. (Off to a good start!)
Week 2: Greg Dortch finishes as a top-25 wide receiver against the Rams. (WR89 — yikes!)
Week 3: Derek Carr makes it three straight weeks as a top-five fantasy QB against the Eagles. (Major miss)
Week 4: Malik Nabers remains WR1 after scoring two touchdowns against division rival Dallas Cowboys. (Still WR1, but no TDs)
Week 5: A running back will finish with more than 100 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards for the first time this season. (Not even close)
Week 6: A tight end — a position that has been AWFUL to this point — leads all position players in scoring this week. (Close! Cole Kmet finished No. 6)
Week 7: The four rookie QBs — Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Bo Nix — combine for more fantasy points than the top four quarterbacks drafted this summer — Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. (Miss)
Week 8: Courtland Sutton finishes as a WR2 or better after failing to earn a single target last week. (JUST missed. WR25!)
Week 9: Tight ends keep rolling, with four tight ends scoring 20-plus points. (Tight end struggles continue)
Week 10: A receiver, back or tight end will account for more than 200 yards of offense. (Ja’Marr Chase did it on Thursday night)
Week 11: The running backs finish with more touchdowns than the quarterbacks in the Chiefs-Bills matchup. (Miss)
Week 12: The Eagles’ defense holds both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to under 100 receiving yards.
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