Let’s dive into some news and notes around the league, my top fantasy plays and favorite picks for Week 17.
Notes:
• If your fantasy team is still alive, congratulations on making it to the fantasy football championship! We are one week away from winning trophies and having bragging rights for the next nine months. The decisions we make this week will make or break our season. Like the great Ricky Bobby once said, “If you ain’t first, you’re last.”
• There have been some high-scoring games the last couple of weeks to the delight of fantasy football fans. Jonathan Taylor finished with 39.8 points in half-PPR settings in Week 16, and 34 players and one defense scored more than 20 points. If your team did not put up 150 last week, you likely did not advance.
• The schedule makers are going to make you earn that championship. We have football on Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday this week. It is going to feel weird having a game the same day as waivers. Make sure you check your players’ schedule and plan accordingly.
• This is getting repetitive, but every point matters this week so track playing conditions when making lineup decisions. Downgrade quarterbacks and receivers who are playing in snow or rainy conditions. Running backs get a boost in their ranking in those same conditions. Target kickers who are playing indoors. One missed kick could be the difference between winning a championship or going home with nothing.
Christmas Day Games: Chiefs vs. Steelers, Ravens vs. Chiefs
Thursday Night Game: Seahawks vs. Bears
Saturday Games: Chargers vs. Patriots, Broncos vs. Bengals, Cardinals vs. Rams
Sunday Night Game: Falcons vs. Commanders
Monday Night Game: Lions vs. 49ers
Start ‘Em:
Quarterback: Anthony Richardson
Running Back: Kendre Miller
Wide Receiver: Adam Thielen
Tight End: Tucker Kraft
Defense: Colts
Sit ‘Em:
Quarterback: Justin Herbert
Running Back: Tank Bigsby
Wide Receiver: Khalil Shakir
Tight End: Dalton Schultz
Defense: Falcons
Sleepers:
Quarterback: Michael Penix
Running Back: Audric Estime
Wide Receiver: Marquise Brown
Tight End: Chig Okonkwo
Defense: Titans
NFL Picks for Week 17
Weekly Pick ‘Em (Season Record: 160-80)
Chiefs (vs. Steelers)
Ravens (vs. Texans)
Bears (vs. Seahawks)
Chargers (vs. Patriots)
Bengals (vs. Broncos)
Rams (vs. Cardinals)
Colts (vs. Giants)
Raiders (vs. Saints)
Titans (vs. Jaguars)
Bills (vs. Jets)
Buccaneers (vs. Panthers)
Eagles (vs. Cowboys)
Dolphins (vs. Browns)
Packers (vs. Vikings)
Commanders (vs. Falcons)
Lions (vs. 49ers)
Five Against the Spread Picks (Season Record: 39-41)
Chargers -5 vs. Patriots
Bengals -3 vs. Broncos
Titans +1 vs. Jaguars
Commanders -4 vs. Falcons
Lions -3.5 vs. 49ers
Five Over-Under Totals (Season Record: 37-40-3)
Chiefs-Steelers Under 43
Colts-Giants Under 40.5
Jets-Bills Over 46.5
Panthers-Buccaneers Under 49.5
Cowboys-Eagles Under 43
One Bold Prediction for the Week
Week 1: Jayden Daniels finishes as a top-5 fantasy QB against the Buccaneers. (Off to a good start!)
Week 2: Greg Dortch finishes as a top-25 WR against the Rams. (WR89 – Yikes!)
Week 3: Derek Carr makes it three straight weeks as a top-5 fantasy QB against the Eagles. (Major miss)
Week 4: Malik Nabers stays as WR1 after scoring two touchdowns against division rival Dallas Cowboys. (Still WR1, but no TDs)
Week 5: A running back will finish with over 100 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards for the first time this season. (Not even close)
Week 6: A tight end – which has been AWFUL at this point – leads all position players in scoring this week. (Close! Cole Kmet finished No. 6)
Week 7: The four rookie QBs – Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Bo Nix – combine for more fantasy points than the top four quarterbacks drafted this summer – Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. (Miss)
Week 8: Courtland Sutton finishes as a WR2 or better after failing to earn a single target last week. (JUST missed. WR25!)
Week 9: Tight ends keep rolling with four tight ends scoring 20 points or more. (Tight end struggles continue)
Week 10: Someone will account for over 200 yards of offense. (Ja’Marr Chase did it on Thursday night)
Week 11: The running backs finish with more touchdowns than the quarterbacks in the Chiefs-Bills matchup. (Miss)
Week 12: The Eagles’ defense holds both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to under 100 receiving yards. (Miss)
Week 13: Six rushing touchdowns are scored between Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley in the showdown between the Eagles and Ravens. (Miss)
Week 14: Caleb Williams finishes as a top-5 QB against the 49ers. (Miss)
Week 15: Sincere McCormick finishes as a RB2 or better against the Falcons. (Miss)
Week 16: The Raiders and Jaguars score more points than the Steelers and Ravens. (Miss)
Week 17: More points are scored Christmas Day than Saturday’s slate of games.