Let’s dive into some news and notes around the league, my top fantasy plays and favorite picks for Week 18.
Notes:
• Congratulations if you won a fantasy football championship! I finished 1-1 in championship games this weekend but gave up the trophy in my home league after running into a buzz saw in Week 17. If your league continues into Week 18, I will have player rankings available for you. If your season is over but you still have the fantasy itch, I will be posting daily fantasy lineups for Saturday and Sunday.
• Let’s talk about the good and the bad this past week. The entire fantasy community heavily backed the Colts defense against the Giants only for them to put up negative fantasy points. Some widely started players who hurt fantasy teams include Isiah Pacheco, James Conner, Terry McLaurin, Jayden Reed and Hunter Henry. If you started Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins, you had yourself a good weekend.
• Looking back at my sleepers, busts and breakout players from this summer, I was right to name Jared Goff a sleeper and James Cook the best breakout running back. I was widely inaccurate to call Trevor Lawrence my breakout QB. I fell into the Kyle Pitts trap once again.
• Saquon Barkley will be the No. 1 pick and Brock Bowers is going to be the top tight end selected next summer. Don’t be surprised if Bowers is taken in the second round next year. Jayden Daniels will be a top-five quarterback, and his teammate, Terry McLaurin, will be a high draft pick as well.
• Lastly, I want to thank you for following along this season. While the fantasy season is over, I highly recommend playing daily fantasy during the playoffs. I find this time of the season more fun in DFS because the schedule is lighter.
Saturday Games: Browns vs Ravens, Bengals vs. Steelers
Sunday Night Game: Vikings vs. Lions
NFL Picks for Week 18
Weekly Pick ‘Em (Season Record: 172-84)
Ravens (vs. Browns)
Bengals (vs. Steelers)
Buccaneers (vs. Saints)
Bills (vs. Patriots)
Packers (vs. Bears)
Colts (vs. Jaguars)
Falcons (vs. Panthers)
Commanders (vs. Cowboys)
Texans (vs. Titans)
Eagles (vs. Giants)
Jets (vs. Dolphins)
Broncos (vs. Chiefs)
Seahawks (vs. Rams)
Chargers (vs. Raiders)
49ers (vs. Cardinals)
Lions (vs. Vikings)
Five Picks Against The Spread (Season Record: 43-42)
Bengals -1.5 vs. Steelers
Eagles -3 vs. Giants
Jets +1.5 vs. Dolphins
Raiders +5.5 vs. Chargers at
Lions -2.5 vs. Vikings
Five Over-Under Totals (Season Record: 39-43-3)
Browns-Ravens under 42
Jaguars-Colts over 46
Commanders-Cowboys over 44
Chiefs-Broncos over 38.5
Vikings-Lions over 57
One Bold Prediction for the Week
Week 1: Jayden Daniels finishes as a top-five fantasy QB against the Buccaneers. (Off to a good start!)
Week 2: Greg Dortch finishes as a top-25 wide receiver against the Rams. (WR89 — yikes!)
Week 3: Derek Carr makes it three straight weeks as a top-five fantasy QB against the Eagles. (Major miss)
Week 4: Malik Nabers remains WR1 after scoring two touchdowns against division rival Dallas Cowboys. (Still WR1, but no TDs)
Week 5: A running back will finish with more than 100 rushing yards and 100 receiving yards for the first time this season. (Not even close)
Week 6: A tight end — a position that has been AWFUL to this point — leads all position players in scoring this week. (Close! Cole Kmet finished No. 6)
Week 7: The four rookie QBs — Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and Bo Nix — combine for more fantasy points than the top four quarterbacks drafted this summer — Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. (Miss)
Week 8: Courtland Sutton finishes as a WR2 or better after failing to earn a single target last week. (JUST missed. WR25!)
Week 9: Tight ends keep rolling, with four tight ends scoring 20-plus points. (Tight end struggles continue)
Week 10: A receiver, back or tight end will account for more than 200 yards of offense. (Ja’Marr Chase did it on Thursday night)
Week 11: The running backs finish with more touchdowns than the quarterbacks in the Chiefs-Bills matchup. (Miss)
Week 12: The Eagles’ defense holds both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to under 100 receiving yards. (Miss)
Week 13: Six rushing touchdowns are scored between Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley in the showdown between the Eagles and Ravens. (Miss)
Week 14: Caleb Williams finishes as a top-five QB against the 49ers. (Miss)
Week 15: Sincere McCormick finishes as a RB2 or better against the Falcons. (Miss)
Week 16: The Raiders and Jaguars score more points than the Steelers and Ravens. (Miss)
Week 17: More points are scored Christmas Day than Saturday’s slate of games. (Miss)
Week 18: The Bengals sneak in the playoffs.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox