Spencer Schultz (@ravens4dummies on Twitter/X) has joined PressBox to share his favorite plays each day.
Off the top, Scottie Scheffler 4-1 and Rory McIlroy 6-1 are no-good, dirty, rotten odds. The value simply isn’t there. Rory has been the best player on earth this year. Scottie has had about as strong of a Masters start as anyone and is still the world No. 1. Either of them can certainly win. One of the two probably wins 30 percent of the time.
If there’s one stat to knock me from feeling like taking such poor value for each: Scheffler and McIlroy have both been subpar to their standards from 150-200 yards in approaches during their last four events, and Augusta National Golf Club requires more of those approaches than any other major venue on a per-round basis. Scheffler has been 10 percent worse than his two-year baseline from that distance over his last four tournaments. McIlroy has been 24 percent worse.
Pertaining to Scheffler, no player has finished top five in back-to-back years since Dustin Johnson in 2019 and 2020. No one has repeated as champion since Tiger Woods, of course. The field is much better than it was then, and Scheffler has dipped his toes into Tiger territory but hasn’t waded waist deep yet. Winning the Masters comes with a litany of host duties the following year, from the Masters Champions Dinner to Drive, Chip and Putt obligations, not to mention the overall attention and media duties. But would it be shocking to see Scheffler repeat? Absolutely not.
Pertaining to McIlroy, he’s probably the best player in the world right now. This may be his best shot to finally complete the career grand slam. It would be great to watch, but his history of meltdowns makes it tough to inspire confidence at 6-1.
Speaking of 150-200 yard approaches, the top three this year are Will Zalatoris, Robert MacIntyre and Sepp Straka. Each of them have shown promise at ANGC. Zalatoris has the best average finish of any player in the field for their career. The Wake Forest alumnus knows the area well and has three Top-10 finishes in three tries. MacIntyre hasn’t played in a few years, but has a T12 and T23 in his only two starts, plus no course is more friendly relatively to left-handed players.
That brings us to the sneaky Straka, who is playing elite golf in 2025 and falls into comfortable thresholds. The average winner’s age is almost 32 on the button. Straka turns 32 on May 1. He has played well at Augusta lately, making the cut three times in three tries. Twenty-one of the last 26 winners have played Augusta at least three times. Twenty-five of the last 27 winners finished 30th or better the year prior. Straka was T16 in 2024. Twenty-three of the last 25 winners were top 30 in the World Rankings. Straka is 14th. Fourteen of the last 16 winners have won on U.S. soil in the previous two years. Straka won in California earlier this season. The last 15 winners have ranked top 30 in strokes gained: tee to green. Straka is sixth. In summary, Straka fits many of the criteria that recent champions have exhibited leading up to The Masters.
I’m a huge fan of a parlay consisting of Zalatoris, MacIntyre and Straka to finish top 20. I love a Round Robin between the three to finish top 10. They are three of my favorite values past 40-1.
Another player who is in top form and fits 15 of the 19 strongest trends in the Tiger era of Masters champions is Shane Lowry. Lowry has played well recently, both in 2025 and at ANGC. He’s relatively long off the tee and has had strong approaches. While he didn’t finish in the top 30 last year, his form is as strong as it’s been in quite some time and he finished strong with top 10s at The Open and PGA Championship, making the cut in all four majors with three top 20s. Lowry for top 20, top 10, top UK finish and to win are favorite plays of mine. Personally, I had a dream Tuesday morning that Scheffler put a green jacket around Lowry, which has been haunting me and forcing me to continue placing wagers on him.
Overall, I’m fading McIlroy and Scheffler due to value, but trends say the winner comes from the following group: Scheffler, McIlory, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay, Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Russell Henley, Straka and Lowry.
DeChambeau has been intriguing value-wise. At 20-1 or longer odds, his driving distance and underrated ability around the green paired with his confidence and gamesmanship have drawn me towards him as the winner. I often ask myself “who is a finisher?” which is difficult when very few players win frequently enough to qualify as one. Scheffler is, obviously. Schauffele finished a close contest to secure his first major then ran away a second time in 2024. Brooks Koepka is a scary sight on Sunday in contention with his prowess as a big game hunter, which we will get to. DeChambeau has finished. He stole victory from the jaws of McIlroy at Pinehurst last year, and he may be my favorite among the 30-1 and in.
I’m fading Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Åberg for reasons that feel more philosophical and mental than solely examining their talent. Talent-wise, they’re two of the five or six best golfers on planet earth. Morikawa isn’t a finisher and falls into the McIlroy category in a sense. Åberg’s precision plays well at Augusta, which nearly led him to the first debutant victory in over 40 years at ANGC. However, he has missed the cut in the last two events leading up to Augusta, and has seemingly gotten rattled and struggled to bounce back following bogeys.
The final two players I want to preview are Justin Thomas and Brooks Koepka, who played a practice round together alongside Fred Couples and Adam Scott this week. Thomas and Koepka I bet every tournament, partially out of fandom, which is always awful, but I can’t help myself but be drawn to their talent. They’re almost inverse players who both had to totally rebuild their game following the worst golf of their pro careers at nearly parallel points in time.
Thomas has missed two consecutive cuts at ANGC after such a promising start. He made his first seven cuts including two top 10s and six top 25s. Which is why, after his putting confidence and form, I like him for the following: top 20, top 10 and I will be betting him for the lowest round in Rounds 2 and 3, respectively. Thomas has gone nuclear several times this year, tying course records and putting low rounds forward. He is a par-5 assassin, with the lowest par-5 average score on tour, and Augusta is designed for par-5s to be taken advantage of while making par 3s and 4s abnormally challenging. I don’t think Thomas wins, but I would love to see it.
Koepka had the worst Sunday of his major career happen in 2023 as he started the day atop the leaderboard and crumbled to finish behind Rahm as runner-up. It feels like the redemption of Koepka’s 2023 PGA Championship following the Masters shortfall and his exit from the PGA Tour to join LIV allowed him to take the biggest breath in golf. That breath translated to a relatively disappointing major year in 2024, but it felt like he found the joy in the game again. The FSU alumnus still made all four cuts but failed to crack the top 25 in any.
Koepka is the best major player of his generation to this point. He’s played well. He’s healthy. He’s long off the tee and has performed extremely well at Augusta with multiple runner-ups and another top-10 finish in the last five years. While he doesn’t meet as many thresholds as some of the other players, his distance control, ability to finish when in contention and previous success at golf’s mecca … who would bat an eye if Koepka walked away with a gleaming smile as a green jacket was placed around his shoulders for his sixth major? I certainly wouldn’t, and I love having a few shekels on Koepka to win at every major.
Overall, I love Koepka and Thomas among Lowry, MacIntyre, Straka and Zalatoris as Top-20 finishers. Parlayed, that’s a 70-1 play. Take those and break them into Round Robins by 2’s, 3’s and 4’s and we will profit.
Additional intriguing names to make the cut and place top 20 and better are Akshay Bhatia, Sergio Garcia and Cameron Smith. Smith has four top 10s in the last five years and five in the last seven years. He’s a great play for top Oceana and who knows, maybe the sneaky Aussie gets it done finally.
All that to say I will be taking Shane Lowry, Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka as winners in the highest units, with the others mentioned sprinkled among parlays and round robins. I’ll monitor them as the tournament gets started.
Hiroshi Tai and Jose Luis Ballester for low amateurs.
Viktor Hovland, Keegan Bradley or Tony Finau will hit an ace.
I like the under on the cut line and under 274.5 for the winner. There will be some rain and someone will finish low.
Happy Masters, friends.
Photo by Soheb Zaidi on Unsplash.com
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