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Quail Hollow is epitomized by its finish, “The Green Mile,” with two monster par 4’s and a 223-yard par 3 with water in front and behind it. The course requires distance and precision, which leads us to take bombers off the tee this week. Ranked in order of confidence are my picks to win the 2025 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow and to finish in the Top 10 or Top 20.
Bryson Dechambeau 10/1
I couldn’t be more confident in Dechambeau this week. Taking him to finish in the Top 10 is an awesome bet. The 2024 runner-up is having one of the greatest driving years off the tee in modern golf history. He’s gaining nearly two strokes per round off the tee in 2025. Only Tiger Woods has ever gained two strokes per round in any category, his 2009 iron play. For more reference, Rory McIlroy’s career high in strokes gained off the tee in a year is 1.37. Xander Schauffele was 1.0 last year in a prolific driving year. Dechambeau isn’t only long, but he’s gaining a stroke per round on driver accuracy as well. His irons have been a struggle in 2025, but he’s masterful with his wedge approaches, scrambling and is a precise putter. That lends itself perfectly to Quail Hollow and Dechambeau walks away with the Wannemacher Trophy this year.
Rory McIlroy 4/1
McIlroy simply dominates Quail Hollow and is the best player in the world right now. I don’t want to spend too much time here, but there’s no better course fit for any player over the last 15 years than Rory at Quail Hollow, where he has won four times. His sky-high approaches allow him to drop eggs on the green that sit and leave him tons of looks for birdie. Adding McIlroy to Dechambeau Top 10 finishes as a two-leg parlay is also a great bet.
Justin Thomas 22/1
Thomas hits the ball hard and long, scrambles well, has won the PGA Championship at Quail Hollow before and is in his best form since doing so. As simple as that! Thomas is arguably the third or fourth best player in the world right now and this course, where he’s been successful, will exemplify it.
Keith Mitchell 120/1
At longshot value, Mitchell is an absolute bomber whose game is well-rounded enough in current form to put together a win at Quail Hollow. He’s fifth in strokes gained off the tee, 11th in average driving distance (311.3 yards), 12th in GIR and 40th in scrambling among PGA Tour players this year. His last five finishes are T2, T7, T12, T18, T18. Mitchell to finish Top 20 is 4/1, which presents great value in itself.
Min Woo Lee 90/1
The Chef is a rollercoaster, but he hits the ball about as hard as anyone in the world off the tee. While accuracy is an issue, it shouldn’t be as big of an issue at a Quail Hollow as it has been at other places. His combination of distance/speed off the tee, scrambling and putting could have him playing a different game than most, a bit like Keith Mitchell with less control on his approaches yet more control around the greens and putting.
Bud Cauley 300/1
Cauley is the definition of a longshot, but he’s got three top six finishes in his last five rounds, including at The Players. Quietly, Cauley is seventh in total strokes gained this year, while being long off the tee, solid around the greens and scrambling with consistent putting. Long approaches over 200 yards and driving accuracy are the weak spots in his current form, but Cauley has been outstanding on par 4’s and is a great course fit. He’s insane value at +550 to finish Top 20 and 20/1 to finish Top 10.
Sungjae Im 100/1
The Prince has finished 8th and 4th in his last two tournaments at Quail Hollow. He’s been in strong form as of late and is on the rebound from heavy struggles last year.
Tommy Fleetwood 45/1
Modeling that considers distance off tee, green type, course history and scrambling ability for this tournament always spits out Fleetwood, who should be a great bet to finish Top 20.
Photo by Soheb Zaidi on Unsplash.com
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