I truly don’t believe this is Brandon Hyde’s fault.
That doesn’t mean I don’t think he bears some responsibility for the Orioles’ late 2024 unraveling and 2025 disaster. I think everyone does. But I don’t know that he deserves the largest slice of the proverbial “blame pie” or even a particularly larger slice than anyone else.
It wouldn’t be appropriate to call him a scapegoat, either. He’s the manager of a bad baseball team. This is how it works. Managers are hired to be fired. No current manager started with his team before 2015. (Admit it, you had absolutely no idea Kevin Cash was the longest-tenured manager in the sport before you scrambled to ask ChatGPT after reading that last sentence.)
This is how the process typically goes for baseball teams that underperform. Sometimes clubs make coaching changes in hopes to delay a managerial firing, but usually the manager goes shortly thereafter. That’s in part because the overall significance of a modern manager isn’t perceived to be the same as it was, say, 20 years ago. It’s in part because general managers want to deflect from going under the microscope themselves. And it’s also in part because teams aren’t as fearful of what an interim manager might do (“how much worse can it get?”) than they are about putting an interim general manager in charge of making personnel decisions that could have a major impact on the future of the franchise.
I don’t think the Orioles’ rise happened in spite of their manager. I truly believe Brandon Hyde played a major role in how this franchise was able to take a step forward between 2022 and 2024. In this era, having the pulse of the clubhouse seems to be as imperative as actual decision-making. Decisions will likely continue to be data-driven no matter who the manager (or general manager) is and no matter how much we like to scream about analytics. I’m bummed that it went this way. But I understand. This is baseball.
If a managerial change is supposed to “provide a spark,” maybe this is one of those situations where the wind keeps it from sparking immediately and you need your friends to put their hands around the lighter to shield it from the wind and while none of you know exactly how this science works, you’ve done it enough that you’re confident it’ll happen soon?
It seems unlikely that the Orioles are going to suddenly catch fire under interim manager Tony Mansolino. They currently have four starting pitchers* and everything not named Jackson Holliday seems broken at the moment.
(*legally speaking)
Yes, the Orioles will get some pieces back. But mapping out a scenario where a team that currently sits 15 games under .500 becomes a serious threat is generously treacherous. We’ve all brought up the famous 19-31 start of the 2019 Nationals before they went on to win the World Series. But that was an exception, not the rule. And the Orioles would have to win four of their next five games just to be as good as that historically bad start!
The math is … quite unfavorable. But positive signs of life are imperative. The Orioles are dramatically more likely to be sellers than buyers at the deadline, but if they intend to be good next year, they should be willing to consider some of both. The team could deal pending free agents and acquire players who are under club control for the next few years. (Or, in spite of Zach Eflin’s awful start Sunday, the Orioles could consider spending money on a baseball player!) The club doesn’t need to tear it all down.
Mike Elias has to answer for this. I don’t mean that he needs to be dragged into a public square or anything like that. But the deference that David Rubenstein showed to his general manager (understandably, if we’re being fair) will require far greater scrutiny moving forward. Whether Elias’ failure to upgrade in the offseason was because of hubris (overconfidence in the roster from both health and performance standpoints) or misplaced skepticism about the value of players on the market (you don’t get to choose a player’s value, the market does that), this was a failure.
The spotlight shines brightly on Elias in this moment. He still has a relatively strong hand to deal from overall. There is still a core group of players who have a chance to right the ship long-term. The team still has most under control for a few years. Provided ownership is serious about its desire to win a World Series, Elias has to prove that he’s capable of putting together a championship-caliber roster. While Adley Rutschman has miserably disappointed and injuries have taken a toll, this was never truly a roster that was championship-caliber as constructed.
It remains to be seen if Elias is capable of taking a franchise to that proverbial next level. But there’s no hiding from the mess he’s at least partially responsible for making. And for ownership, there’s no hiding behind him, either.
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