In an appearance this weekend on MLB Network Radio, Orioles GM Mike Elias confirmed the part of the conversation that you could have figured out for yourself.
The Orioles are going to trade away their pending free agents. But you knew that. The Orioles were never going to get back to a place in the standings where it would be logical to hold on to their pending free agents. In recent weeks, the far more realistic conversation has been whether the Orioles were going to trade more than just their pending free agents. They already traded one player under club control beyond this year (Bryan Baker). Would they trade more? Here’s Elias’ answer about their plans:
“The conversations that I’m having right now are more oriented toward seeing what’s out there for some of our available major league players. You know, we’re not blowing up the team. And we think we’re going to be very good again in 2026 and have that intention. We’re not interested in changing the foundation of the team but to the degree that we have players that interest other clubs that are coming toward the end of their contracts, we’ve got to listen to that.”
That all sounds good on the surface. It’s a soft sell. The Orioles aren’t going to get much in return for their pending free agents. Ryan O’Hearn is having a nice season but is a positionless bat without mega power. Cedric Mullins has struggled. Zach Eflin and Tomoyuki Sugano are complete unknowns. Eflin looks more and more like a qualifying offer candidate every day because it’s hard to imagine getting any value in a trade. Charlie Morton was trending in the right direction … right up until his last start.
Even if the Orioles find new homes for all of them (and even Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto), they’re not going to get major returns, at least on paper. Obviously they should make the trades anyway, but they’re mostly slated to be trades for the sake of trades.
Based on Elias’ answer, it doesn’t appear as though they are considering moving Dean Kremer or Félix Bautista, two players who would likely demand a more significant haul that could offer a jolt to a depleted system and/or perhaps add multiple big-league-ready prospects. The Orioles should be aware of what offers are out there for those players, but they also shouldn’t actually be trading away those players. Because Elias is right. Or … Elias should be right.
“And we think we’re going to be very good again in 2026 and have that intention.”
That’s exactly how it should be. This should be a one-year blip. There should be a course correction. The Orioles should return to championship contention next year. But I am … skeptical.
Injuries are part of the story for the 2025 Orioles, but they are far from the whole story. The team’s struggles have at least as much (if not more) to do with the lack of offseason upgrades, not nearly good enough pitching quality and regression/stagnation from the core group of young position players.
When Elias says “we think we’re going to be very good again in 2026 and have that intention,” does that mean the Orioles are willing to do whatever is necessary in order to get there? Because they were closer to championship contention at this time last year but still weren’t willing to do what was necessary in order to close the gap.
So are the Orioles willing to do what’s necessary to close a far more significant gap at this point? Are they willing to spend the money and/or trade capital for multiple frontline starting pitchers (including a truly viable “ace”), another true middle-of-the-order bat and one or two more leverage relievers? Because that’s the type of offseason they’re going to need COMBINED with better health luck and steps forward from Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday and Colton Cowser.
That’s a big ask.
Assuming Elias is still in charge, that’s the commitment that’s necessary to justify the argument that “we’re going to be very good again in 2026.”
If the plan is something more similar to “make a couple of stealthy additions and hope for the best health-wise and that players will take a step forward,” I don’t think that’s enough of a plan. And that’s relevant to the subject because if the Orioles aren’t planning on going truly “all-in,” they SHOULD be more receptive to potentially trading players like Bautista or Kremer who could potentially generate greater returns.
I don’t say that because I want them push their window back any further or think it’s the best path forward. I say it because there is no benefit to continue the in-between approaches. “All-in” is the necessary path. If that’s what they intend to do, then Bautista can definitely help as closer and Kremer can be helpful in the back end of the rotation.
But if not, get what you can get for those players. Stockpile more talent. And find the next all-in window.
Hopefully that will be this offseason. If it is, I agree with Elias’ approach.
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