With 12 teams in the MLB postseason — six from the American League and six from the National League — the top two seeds in each league get a first-round bye.
In the AL, the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners earned byes. The New York Yankees had a better record than Seattle, but no wild-card team can receive a bye. In the NL, the Milwaukee Brewers have the best record with the Phillies just one game behind. Those two clubs will sit out until the weekend.
All Wild Card Series start on Sept. 30.
Detroit Tigers (87-75) at Cleveland Guardians (88-74) — 1:08 p.m. on ESPN
No team has ever come back from a larger deficit to win a division than the Guardians did in winning the AL Central (15.5 games). The Tigers’ confidence has to be shaken, going just 7-17 in September and having to watch the excruciating way the Guardians just kept winning.
The Tigers clinched on Saturday, meaning manager A.J. Hinch could save Tarik Skubal to start Game 1 of a three-game wild-card series. If the Tigers had to start Skubal to clinch on Sunday, that would have likely ruled him out of the wild-card round as a starter. That would have been bad news given the rotation problems the Tigers have had in the second half.
Even conceding that the Tigers will be favored in Game 1 behind Skubal, I’ll believe in Guardians manager Stephen Vogt and his feisty band of troublemakers because of the pitching they can throw at opponents. They have the best everyday player in the series in José Ramírez, too.
San Diego Padres (90-72) at Chicago Cubs (92-70) — 3:08 p.m. on ABC
These are two evenly-matched teams, both coming in with 14-11 records in September. For a time, the Padres were going toe-to-toe with the rival Dodgers. But injuries, especially to the rotation, really halted that momentum. Michael King has never gotten back to being the man.
However, I think there is some extra length to the Padres’ lineup. You also have the Padres bullpen as a big plus, although the loss of Jason Adam was a big blow that took some wind out of the sails of acquiring hard-throwing Mason Miller.
For their part, the Cubs have closer Daniel Palencia back off the injured list from a shoulder strain, but no word yet if he’ll resume his role as the closer or if it’ll be split up between former Oriole Andrew Kittredge and the recently recalled Jordan Wicks. Kyle Tucker is back from the IL, but I’m not sure what he’ll be able to provide.
Cubs rookie starter Cade Horton is out for this series with a right rib fracture, which also would potentially keep him out of the next round as well. I like the Padres a bit better with Horton a no-go.
Boston Red Sox (89-73) at New York Yankees (94-68) — 6:08 p.m. on ESPN
These two rivals are squaring off in a phone booth of a series, adding to the intensity. Game 1 will feature Cy Young Award candidates Garrett Crochet and Max Fried. The Sox took eight of the first nine games between the teams during the regular season, while the Yankees took three of the last four. The Sox went 5-2 at Yankee Stadium.
Both lineups are dynamic. The Yankees probably have the more grizzled veteran-laden team, but the Sox have Alex Bregman and Trevor Story, both of whom have had proud and potent careers. I think if the Red Sox lose Game 1, their chances of taking the series are very low. If the Yankees lose Game 1, they have Carlos Rodón ready to go in Game 2 and Cam Schlittler or Luis Gil ready for Game 3.
The Yankees were in the World Series last season and have that unfinished business aura around them. This series feels like a big legacy moment for Aaron Judge, and I love what I am seeing from Giancarlo Stanton. I’ll go with the Yankees.
Cincinnati Reds (83-79) at Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69) — 9:08 p.m. on ESPN
Don’t sleep on the Reds here. I won’t pick them, but a team with a rotation trio of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott has a chance. The problem is the Dodgers have the more fearsome lineup and Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani aren’t exactly slouches in the rotation.
I have a lot of respect for the job manager Dave Roberts does leading his men, but from a strategy standpoint, Terry Francona is one of the best skippers of the past 30 years. Francona is like a veteran jockey who knows what he has under the saddle, as evidenced by the Reds winning 9 of 13 to beat out the Mets by the skin of a chin.
The Reds’ bullpen is very solid with Chase Burns, Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagán. The Dodgers’ weak link this season has been their bullpen, especially given the problems Blake Trienen and Tanner Scott have had. In a short series, Emmet Sheehan and Roki Sasaki may have to shine as relievers.
I want to pick the Reds, but I’ll unsurprisingly go with the chalk in this series.
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