It’s been a couple minutes since Mike Elias sat down with the local media on Monday, Sept. 29 for his end-of-season postmortem news conference. For more than 40 minutes, Elias nimbly moved through questions from the assembled beat writers and columnists who cover the team on a regular basis.
With all that Elias has on his plate, I hope he is a lot more organized than I am. From naming a manager and a coaching staff, to adding a couple of real starting pitchers and a veteran bat, to rebuilding the bullpen and finding a closer, to trying to teach some young hitters how to prepare to not swing and miss so much, to perhaps bringing in a couple new front-office executives … well, you get the picture. Elias has his work cut out.
But, of all the answers he gave, the one that surprised me the most was the no-holds-barred support for the one-time wunderkind of this franchise, switch-hitting catcher Adley Rutschman:
“He will be our frontline catcher. [It was] a frustrating season for him coming off of a frustrating second half. He’s aware of it. We’re all aware of it. We’re all working on it. There were some injuries sprinkled in this year that I think were a factor in him kind of getting out of sync again. We saw flashes of him offensively the way that he can and should be. I thought he had a great defensive season. He does a great job leading our pitching staff. He’s a key guy for this whole thing, there’s no way around that. We’re going to work with him to restore his presence in baseball as an All-Star, but he’s going to be front and center as our starting catcher.”
There was a healthy debate ahead of the 2019 MLB Draft about taking an advanced college player in Rutschman versus taking a younger, high-ceiling shortstop in Bobby Witt Jr., the son of former big league pitcher Bobby Witt. Rutschman was 21 at the time of the draft, while Witt turned 19 shortly after the draft.
I remember at the very end of the 2018 season, when it was set that the Orioles would have the No. 1 pick in June 2019. Even then, the consensus top two talents were Rutschman and Witt.
Elias came from a true scouting background and worked hard to make this decision. In the end, the decision seemed to come down to wanting to go with the more advanced player with seemingly a quicker path to the majors, Rutschman.
Ironically, it was Witt who made it to the bigs about six weeks earlier than Rutschman, due in large part to a non-serious elbow injury that kept Rutschman from coming north with the team in 2022. To date, here is the comparison between the two:
| AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | Runs | Steals | bWAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | .290 | .340 | .504 | 105 | 373 | 403 | 148 | 21.7 |
| Adley Rutschman | .254 | .344 | .412 | 61 | 230 | 259 | 6 | 15.1 |
The point of this isn’t to further debate who the better player is. That horse is out of the corral. It’s apparent that Witt, now 25, is likely on his way to a Hall of Fame career, barring any major injuries. Meanwhile, Rutschman, now 27, quite frankly is about to face a crossroads season in 2026 that could well determine if he’ll ever truly live up to his college press clippings or become more of a fringe big leaguer.
Elias may have an opportunity this offseason to offload Rutschman as part of a blockbuster deal to shore up one of the largest areas of need the club has — starting pitching. However, Elias looks to be doubling down on his 1:1 pick from several years ago. I won’t be so dramatic as to say Elias is putting his job on the line. Ownership seems to have great trust in his judgment.
The numbers that are really important are not Rutschman vs. Witt. It’s Rutschman vs. Rutschman. Those are the numbers that matter.
To date, there are two distinct versions of Rutschman, almost a Jekyll and Hyde career. Rutschman doesn’t have to be better than Witt. He just has to be a player more closely resembling the player from May 2022 to June 2024, rather than the one who has been putting on that No. 35 uniform ever since.
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | |||||||
| 470 | .254 | .362 | .445 | 13 | 42 | 65 | 86 |
| 2023 | |||||||
| 687 | .277 | .374 | .435 | 20 | 80 | 92 | 101 |
| 2024 (March 28-June 27) | |||||||
| 348 | .300 | .351 | .479 | 15 | 55 | 26 | 63 |
| 2024 (June 28-Sept. 29) | |||||||
| 290 | .189 | .279 | .280 | 4 | 24 | 32 | 40 |
| 2025 | |||||||
| 365 | .220 | .307 | .366 | 9 | 29 | 40 | 57 |
There was much speculation about a foul tip to the hand on June 27, 2024, being the reason for his second-half downturn that season. I never recall hearing Rutschman discuss it or attempt to blame his lack of second-half production on a physical ailment.
There was hope that 2025 would bring the return of the real Adley Rutschman. He wasn’t the equal of Witt, but he was a key component of what made the O’s lineup tough to navigate at its best.
When Rutschman homered in Toronto on Opening Day, we all took a collective breath and thought, “OK, he’s back.” However, he missed time with two oblique injuries and largely struggled with the bat otherwise. The fear on my part: Is this the real Rutschman?
When Rutschman hits, the team wins. When Rutschman doesn’t hit or is absent from the lineup, the team struggles. The Orioles went 219-146 from Rutschman’s call-up through June 27, 2024, a .600 winning percentage. The club went 115-128 from June 28, 2024 through the end of the 2025 season, a .473 winning percentage.
With so much on his plate, Elias knows those numbers make it hard to move on from trying to find his version of the real Rutschman.
For the sake of the 2026 season, we sure hope Elias is doing the right thing.
Photo Credit: Kenya Allen/PressBox