While I am hoping there is a turnaround on the way for the Orioles this season, the pitching numbers make that seem more and more unlikely with each failed start.
Let’s look at the pitching numbers in the American League East.
| Team | Record | ERA | WHIP | Opponents’ BA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 30-15 | 3.61 | 1.19 | 0.224 |
| New York Yankees | 28-19 | 3.29 | 1.17 | 0.221 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 21-25 | 3.96 | 1.29 | 0.248 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 21-26 | 4.76 | 1.44 | 0.261 |
| Boston Red Sox | 19-27 | 3.81 | 1.25 | 0.237 |
The Orioles are in an entirely different place, even though they are close in the standings to the Red Sox and Blue Jays. That is an awfully low bar.
Look at the series coming up in Tampa. Monday night’s matchup pits Trevor Rogers (5.77 ERA) against Shane McClanahan (2.27). Tuesday night features Kyle Bradish (4.21) and Griffin Jax (3.91). The series finale on Wednesday afternoon has Shane Baz (5.26) and possibly Jesse Scholtens (3.06).
The Orioles are in serious need of starting to stack some series wins together. Do those matchups look promising to you?
Despite their ERAs, Rogers and Bradish should give the Orioles a good chance to win games. After that, how much confidence do you have in Baz, Chris Bassitt and Brandon Young to give the Orioles a solid chance to win five of seven times out?
When Mike Elias took over as Orioles general manager after the 2018 season, he was correct in tearing it all apart and starting over. But to see things turn around as quickly as they did and then fall apart as quickly as they did, the one constant has been Elias’ decisions when it comes to pitching. They are far short of what it’s going to take to ever get this franchise over the hump.
I always point back to Earl Weaver’s philosophy on baseball and life (also the title of his autobiography), “It’s what you learn after you know it all that counts.”
In eight seasons at the helm, Elias has not so much as developed one starting pitcher from his seven drafts. Joseph Dzierwa may break through in the next two or three seasons. Elias has only had two pitching draftees even make the majors, Kade Strowd and Connor Gillispie. Trey Gibson and Brandon Young both signed as undrafted free agents.
Elias made one brilliant pitching trade, when he acquired Kyle Bradish from the Angels as part of a package for Dylan Bundy in December 2019. He made another solid trade for one year of Corbin Burnes just before spring training in 2024. His trade for Trevor Rogers has been a mixed bag.
But constantly trading for pitchers is a tough row to hoe when it comes to building anything meaningful in terms of pitching development. And that game requires that the ammunition be position players who can actually play and have value. Elias’ plentiful farm system suddenly shrunk and has all but disappeared.
Yes, Elias has had terrible luck with pitching injuries. Bradish had Tommy John surgery in 2024. Zach Eflin had back surgery in 2025 and Tommy John surgery in 2026. Grayson Rodriguez missed all of 2025. Félix Bautista has mostly been on the shelf since the end of 2023. Dean Kremer (quad) and Cade Povich (elbow) are currently on the injured list.
Aside from pitching, the club has been challenged by the loss of two important regulars in Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg. Holliday should be back soon, but Westburg just underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the rest of the season.
But make no mistake, what is missing most in this organization right now is a coordinated pitching plan. There was talk early last offseason of Elias adding a GM, but that hasn’t happened. It’s no surprise that a control person like Elias wants to retain that control.
However, the job he has done with his entire pitching development process is long overdue for a reboot. That starts with bringing in a guy who really knows pitching. That clearly is not an Elias strong point.
The organization is suffering from the lack of that sort of person.
Photo Credit: Colin Murphy/PressBox