This is my ninth season doing MLB power rankings for PressBoxOnline.com. Here are my rankings heading into the 60-game season that begins July 23. Over-under win totals are from covers.com.
1. New York Yankees (last season: 103-59; over-under: 37.5): The long layoff allowed the Yankees time to heal up a roster that was devastated by injuries in 2019 and leading up to spring training in February. Gerrit Cole and James Paxton look like a dominant 1-2 punch to head up the rotation, which is fortified by a dynamite bullpen. The offense should be potent as well.
2. Oakland Athletics (97-65; 33.5): Perennial Manager of the Year candidate Bob Melvin has his team locked and loaded if the rotation can stay healthy. Three young left-handers are coming back from significant arm injuries: Sean Manaea (who did get back for 29.2 innings in 2019), Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk. Assuming they can stay on the mound — and none will be counted on for big innings in a 60-game season — they’ll team with whistle-blowing Mike Fiers and Frankie Montas, who comes back from an 80-game PED suspension.
Update: Puk recently received treatment for a sore shoulder. His timetable for a return is unclear.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers (106-56; 37.5): After back-to-back World Series losses in 2017 and 2018, the 2019 Dodgers cruised into the playoffs with nine more wins than their closest NL rival (the Atlanta Braves with 97). But the Washington Nationals proved to be too much for them to handle in the division series. The Dodgers were dealt a big loss in the form of Hyun-Jin Ryu, now with the Toronto Blue Jays. More importantly, I’m not sure lefty Clayton Kershaw is still good enough to be the club’s No. 2 starter behind Walker Buehler, though Kershaw is getting the opening night nod against the San Francisco Giants July 23. This is a dangerous team, but the pitching could be a bit of a question mark.
4. Minnesota Twins (101-61; 34.5): This team, even without Josh Donaldson, hit a ton of home runs in 2019. Manager Rocco Baldelli has to be salivating at what the middle of that order — which includes Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano and Donaldson — will do. Plus, they added a couple of starting pitchers in Rich Hill, who is about ready to give the Twins 50-60 important innings, and Kenta Maeda, who cost the club prospect Brusdar Graterol. Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi are both solid.
5. Tampa Bay Rays (96-66; 33.5): I have the Rays in front of a division-winning St. Louis Cardinals club, the dangerous Houston Astros, the defending champion Nationals and a 97-win Braves team. This is a very deep and talented team, particularly if the pitching works out. A top three of Charlie Morton, former Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and the talented Tyler Glasnow is otherworldly. A big question mark now is how much Austin Meadows’ positive coronavirus test impacts his season. Manager Kevin Cash knows how to push all the buttons on a team that has a dominant late-inning arm in Nick Anderson.
6. St. Louis Cardinals (91-71; 31.5): Despite a less-than-spectacular offensive season in 2019, the trio of Jack Flaherty, Dakota Hudson and Adam Wainwright gave the Cardinals a chance to win all the time. Entering his July 7 start against the Giants last year, Flaherty had an ERA of 4.90. But from that point on, he threw 106.1 innings of superstar baseball — a 0.93 ERA with a 0.69 WHIP, and opposing batters hit .139/.203/.217. Paul Goldschmidt had a subpar first four months and then looked a lot more like the guy in his uniform is supposed to look.
7. Washington Nationals (93-69 and World Series champs; 33.5): All season long in 2019, it felt as if the Nationals were going up a hill, but they really stepped it up during those last 45 days or so and then the postseason. What made it so improbable is that ace Max Scherzer wasn’t remotely himself. If he returns to form, they’ll probably end up winning the NL East by 6-8 games. But if he struggles, the wheels could come off this cart very quickly. With Sean Doolittle, Roenis Elias, Will Harris, Daniel Hudson and Tanner Rainey, the bullpen should be a plus from Day One instead of a major problem like it was in 2019. They’ll miss Anthony Rendon an awful lot, and not many clubs could withstand the losses of Bryce Harper and Rendon in back-to-back seasons. But if Juan Soto and Trea Turner play up to their capabilities, watch out.
8. Houston Astros (107-55; 35.5): The Astros’ cheating scandal doesn’t rate quite as highly as it would if we weren’t smack dab in the middle of this pandemic. This team is still good, but manager Dusty Baker has his work cut out for him in building a rotation beyond Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke. Offensively, there now are major question marks regarding how well this lineup can hit without knowing what pitches are coming.
9. Cleveland Indians (93-69; 33.5): The winning window in Cleveland is closing, as the club may lose its nickname and best player, Francisco Lindor, by this time next season. But that doesn’t mean this team isn’t good enough to hang with the big boys throughout 2020. In addition to Lindor, Jose Ramirez is back and is expected to resemble the player who was probably one of the top 10-12 offensive guys in the league prior to 2019. Manager Terry Francona will have a terrific rotation headed up by Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber and Carlos Carrasco. Though the PED suspension for Emmanuel Clase (the return for Corey Kluber) is a huge blow for this ‘pen, the good news is Francona, who can really mix and match, is still driving this bus.
10. Atlanta Braves (97-65; 33.5): Are the Braves a team destined to not reel in any outfield help as they start 2020? Nick Markakis signed a one-year deal in November to come back to the Braves, but he opted out soon after Freddie Freeman came down with the coronavirus. Then the club agreed to terms with Yasiel Puig, but he failed a coronavirus test and the deal fell apart. That leaves the Braves with Ronald Acuna Jr., Ender Inciarte and Marcell Ozuna in the outfield. They also have third baseman/outfielder Austin Riley, but he fizzled badly down the stretch last year after a torrid start after he came up from the minors. One of the best signings of the offseason in my estimation was the Braves’ one-year, $18 million deal with Cole Hamels, who is a vitally important piece of the rotation behind Max Fried and Mike Soroka. But Hamels was recently placed on the injured list with triceps tendinitis, which he’s dealt with since spring training. He won’t be ready Opening Day.
11. Philadelphia Phillies (81-81; 31.5): The Phillies added Zack Wheeler to a rotation that desperately needs Aaron Nola to look more like the 2018 version than the one we saw in most of 2019. Speaking of comebacks, Jake Arrieta needs to make a positive impact. Nobody is looking for greatness, but the Phillies deserve more out of the three-year, $75 million deal they gave him. But the biggest lift this team gets is from Joe Girardi in the dugout. He’ll manage smartly and with passion, and he’ll get the most out of Bryce Harper. Former Yankees shortstop Didi Gregorius was a bit of an under-the-radar signing, and he is reunited with Girardi. Gregorius allows the Phillies to move Jean Segura to third base and installs Scott Kingery at second.
12. New York Mets (86-76; 32.5): Year Two of the Brodie Van Wagenen experiment begins with the backdrop of the club being shopped around. The lame-duck feeling Van Wagenen must be operating under is compounded by Luis Rojas being a rookie big-league skipper. Of course, the key for the Mets is the rotation. Jacob deGrom experienced some back tightness during summer camp, but he’s good to go for Opening Day. No. 2 starter Noah Syndergaard opted to undergo Tommy John surgery in February. That leaves Marcus Stroman and Steven Matz in the No. 2 and 3 roles. That puts a lot of pressure on Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha to fill out the rotation, but they’re capable of doing so. Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil are a dynamic offensive group, but unless aging players like Robinson Cano, Yoenis Cespedes, Wilson Ramos and Jed Lowrie contribute, this club is stuck in the mud.
13. Cincinnati Reds (75-87; 31.5): David Bell comes back for Year Two of his tenure, and this team has a chance to be pretty dangerous. The Reds will hit a ton, especially in their home park, but like so many teams, they need the starting pitching to click. They’ll count on Luis Castillo, Trevor Bauer and Sonny Gray to make strong contributions.
14. Chicago White Sox (72-89; 31.5): Teams ranked 13 through 16 are all potentially dangerous. This offense will be formidable, but will it be in 2020 or 2021? With Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Yasmani Grandal, Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert, it could be sooner rather than later. This pitching staff is made interesting by the continued growth of Lucas Giolito and two veteran lefties in Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Keuchel. With the long delay in starting, we may also see the post-Tommy John version of one-time top prospect Carlos Rodon.
15. San Diego Padres (70-92; 30.5): General manager A.J. Preller better hope his team plays markedly better than a year ago. After two expensive offseason pickups — Eric Hosmer in 2018 and Manny Machado in 2019 — the facts are that his team finished last in the division and 36 games behind the Dodgers last year. So with all that’s riding on this season and the chance to hire Ron Washington, Preller went with Jayce Tingler. He better hope he was right or he’ll never get another chance to hire a manager.
16. Milwaukee Brewers (89-73; 30.5): I am probably a tad light on this team and should have them ranked more like 11th or 12th. But truth is there are 10 teams that have win totals of 30.5 or 31.5 next to them. It was tough to figure out what should tip the scale for the purposes of this power ranking. But for me it’s the Brewers’ rotation, which is a bit soft once you get past Brandon Woodruff. Josh Hader still a force out of the bullpen, but he slipped a bit a year ago. Christian Yelich leads the way offensively for this bunch.
17. Arizona Diamondbacks (85-77; 31.5): Can the addition of Madison Bumgarner really lift this club? How big of a star is Ketel Marte going to be?
18. Los Angeles Angels (72-90; 31.5): Owner Arte Moreno is never shy about spending the big bucks. He did it this offseason in acquiring free-agent third baseman Anthony Rendon for seven years and $245 million. That follows Justin Upton (five years, $106 million), Josh Hamilton (five years, $125 million) and Albert Pujols (10 years, $254 million) — not to mention Mike Trout (12 years, $430 million). But what does he have to show for these signings other than huge amounts on his checkbook ledger? Joe Maddon is tasked with making this work before he sails off into the sunset. Maybe the club’s best hire was pitching coach Mickey Callaway. But can he do anything with the likes of Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran?
19. Texas Rangers (78-84; 28.5): The experts have this Rangers club below .500. Yet there are some folks who see the rotation of Corey Kluber, Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles as formidable. Minor and Lynn are projected to enjoy strong seasons, and if Kluber can get back to 80-85 percent of his former self, then yes, the rotation has a chance to lift Texas to 30-plus wins.
20. Colorado Rockies (71-91; 27.5): The Angels and Rockies have two of the most productive players in the game in Mike Trout and Nolan Arenado, respectively, but the net result is these two stars play for organizations that don’t seem to be able to take the next step. Manager Bud Black is clearly on the hot seat here, and pitching problems are aplenty. The starting staff is not very good, and the Rockies just released highly-paid relievers Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw.
21. Chicago Cubs (84-78; 31.5): I see a team in decline. I have a lot of admiration for Theo Epstein’s career accomplishments, but his handling of the Cubs after their World Series win in 2016 is not one of his shining moments. New skipper David Ross is well regarded, but he’s got a challenging task ahead of him.
22. Boston Red Sox (84-78; 30.5): The Red Sox will score a good number of runs, but will their pitchers contain opposing offenses? Clearly, I don’t see nearly enough starters to give this team favorable matchups more times than not. The best-case scenario is Eduardo Rodriguez comes back quickly and effectively from his bout with the coronavirus. The rest of the rotation — which includes Martin Perez and Brian Johnson — is not exciting at all, and Collin McHugh just opted out of the season.
23. Toronto Blue Jays (67-95; 27.5): It was deemed too big of a risk in Canada to allow the Jays and other teams to cross the border throughout the season — a sad commentary on how the U.S. response to pandemic is viewed by other countries. Pittsburgh or Triple-A Buffalo will most likely become the temporary home of the Jays. This is an important season to have Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Cavan Biggio and Bo Bichette establish themselves as the pivotal pieces of a Jays’ turnaround. The starting pitching could surprise people.
24. Miami Marlins (57-105; 24.5): For the Marlins, the irony of fanless games is that they spent a little bit of money to bring in Jesus Aguilar, Corey Dickerson and Jonathan Villar to see if they could convince their fading fan base that they meant business. The success of 2020 hinges on what this rotation — Sandy Alcantara, Elieser Hernandez, Pablo Lopez, Caleb Smith and Jose Urena — can grow into. With the NL East facing the AL East this year, I’ll get to see them a little more often.
25. Kansas City Royals (59-103; 24.5): Mike Matheny has gotten back up on the horse as manager. Impressively, Matheny knew he didn’t score well with his players in how and why he made certain moves when he was with the Cardinals, so he went back and studied analytics with one of the game’s best in Ari Kaplan, who has worked for several front offices. Starting pitchers Danny Duffy, Brad Keller and Mike Montgomery have upside, though Jakob Junis will start the season on the injured list.
26. Seattle Mariners (68-94; 24.5): Like A.J. Preller in San Diego, GM Jerry Dipoto is entering the hot seat zone. He doesn’t have the personnel he needs on the field, and it’s looking as if his hand-picked skipper, Scott Servais, isn’t the man for this job.
27. Baltimore Orioles (54-108; 20.5): This is clearly a roster full of placeholders, as GM Mike Elias is trying to improve the talent level at every possible turn. The pandemic has been tough on all 30 teams, but having no minor-league season is a devastating blow for teams in the process of rebuilding. So, too, was the loss of Trey Mancini after he had surgery to remove a cancerous tumor from his colon. The oddsmakers have the Orioles as the worst team in baseball at 20.5 wins. I see enough improvement in the overall pitching depth and in the versatility of this staff to keep them closer in games than they tended to be a year ago.
28. San Francisco Giants (77-85; 25.5): I guess the win total is based partially on the return of right-hander Johnny Cueto. But this is a pretty brutal ballclub, and they lost perhaps the best manager in the game in Bruce Bochy. Bochy was replaced by the confident Gabe Kapler, who worked with top executive Farhan Zaidi when the two were with the Dodgers. This is a bad club, and they are a long ways from even understanding how bad they are.
29. Pittsburgh Pirates (69-93; 25.5): I have a great deal of respect for GM Ben Cherington as a baseball executive, but this attempt at a comeback in Pittsburgh is going to be a real taffy pull. I guess the experts think Joe Musgrove, Trevor Williams, Stephen Brault and Derek Holland can keep games close enough to win their fair share. I don’t see it that way at all.
30. Detroit Tigers (47-114; 21.5): The win total for this Tigers team is one more than the Orioles. I’m not saying it’ll be a run away by the Orioles, but Ron Gardenhire’s last season as a manager is a pretty helpless task.